2012 Draft

So if we are not going to take waiters and no source has linked him to us we need to pick drummond and Miller.

Obawan12 said:

Here's John Hollinger's insider article on the draft and his draft rater. It's a good read and something to consider when looking at the prospects we are considering.

There are some graphs in it and I'm not sure how well they will copy paste, so sorry if it's a little hard to read them.

NBA - 2012 NBA Draft Rater - ESPN

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Always love Hollinger's take, it's something unique if nothing else. Also, given the way the Cavs like to draft based on stats, it's probably a better look at our big board than some experts mock drafts. It's pretty interesting that MKG grades out so well on his board since some other statisticians have posted about how his stats are very underwhelming. I was a bit surprised by Dion Waiters at first, but then I remembered that on a per minute basis he had some of the best stats in the draft. Other sleepers that I think we should pay close attention to are Tony Wroten and Will Barton, both of whom should be available with our 24 and maybe even 33/34.

Edit: Forgot about Quincy Miller, he may be another sleeper on the Cavs board.

Maybe we gave the promise

That Hollinger article was an interesting read. I really think the stats are kind of damning to Barnes, but not as damaging to Beal.

Beal's base stats, not advanced or extrapolated, were already under scrutiny. If the Cavs like Beal, they've probably already gotten past the stats issue because of him playing out of position in a weird situation and then coming on strong in tournament play and showing what everyone saw in high school.

At the very least, for a lot of you out there, I really think the chances that the Cavaliers end up with Barnes are considerably lower now. I'd be very surprised if they drafted him. Of course, the chances increase if Beal and Gilchrist are both taken before the Cavs draft, but I think Barnes has fallen out of favor at least at the moment.

This just reinforces my hope for a MKG/D. Lamb draft.

InBoobieWeTrust said:

That Hollinger article was an interesting read. I really think the stats are kind of damning to Barnes, but not as damaging to Beal.

Beal's base stats, not advanced or extrapolated, were already under scrutiny. If the Cavs like Beal, they've probably already gotten past the stats issue because of him playing out of position in a weird situation and then coming on strong in tournament play and showing what everyone saw in high school.

At the very least, for a lot of you out there, I really think the chances that the Cavaliers end up with Barnes are considerably lower now. I'd be very surprised if they drafted him. Of course, the chances increase if Beal and Gilchrist are both taken before the Cavs draft, but I think Barnes has fallen out of favor at least at the moment.

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Also, Hollinger's draft rater historically works better the more data it has on a player. Based on previous results, there's much more of a chance that Beal as a freshman outperforms compared to Barnes as a sophomore.

Just further confirms my belief that Drummond will be the pick. Barnes blew his shot. I think MKG/Beal go 2-3. Jordan has been trying to trick people into giving up alot in a trade, but he will take down the facade soon and announce MKG imo. Then Washington will take Beal. That leaves Drummond/Barnes for the Cavs.

The pecking order is becoming clear.

howler1313 said:

Also, Hollinger's draft rater historically works better the more data it has on a player. Based on previous results, there's much more of a chance that Beal as a freshman outperforms compared to Barnes as a sophomore.

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Yeah. Barnes was in a position where he should have been able to produce well and rate well on the statistical model, but it seems that he didn't, which everyone pretty much knew at this point. If people believe(as I do) that Beals' shooting will undoubtedly improve, his position would improve greatly in Hollinger's model as well. FG/3PT/FT was 44.4/33.9/76.4, I'm sure if that went closer towards 47/38/80 then he would probably skyrocket up Hollinger's list.

Reading Hollinger's Draft Grader turns me into a giddy effing third grader (sorry.).

It's not necessarily because it confirms my own observations or anything like that; I just love to see this often wildly alternative take, especially given the Cavs' FO reported love of advanced statistics in the vein of Hollinger's. And given last year's results (and go ahead and throw Danny Green in there too), it's hard not to believe in such similarities in evaluations.

This year, the Cavs' reported love of Barnes immediately looks questionable, if you believe they use similar statistical breakdowns and attribute them a great deal of weight. Given that I don't want Barnes, I'm thrilled by this, regardless of how insignificant more even-keeled minds might find this.

Davis' demolishing of the Draft Rater might add further evidence to the notion that the Cavs use similar evaluation tools, given the fact that they're the only team that we've heard any reports of offering a deal for the first pick. But given that everybody and their mother knows that this draft is a one horse race, the Cavs didn't offer all that much, and who knows what other teams are doing behind the scenes, it's not exactly a smoking gun piece of evidence for their evaluation process.

Most of the same that I just said about Davis can be said for MKG, to a lesser extent. I think the Cavs love the kid. I think a lot of other teams love the kid too, though, including the Wiz.

Dion Waiters is interesting. I wanted to like him more than any other scoring guards because he has the sturdy build of Beal but with more explosiveness, but I've deferred to others in that Beal is just the superior overall player. I'll continue to defer in that manner, as this is no exact science, but the results sure make me think twice about where the Cavs have him ranked.

Wroten and Miller are both interesting in the context of the Cavs' interest based on advanced statistics. I'm surprised by both players' ratings, but given our second pick position currently, the amount of upside for both, and the amount of discussion around here regarding both of them, this is pretty exciting.

Drummond did better than I had expected. This excites me a lot. I want more reasons to like the kid other than his size and athleticism. I've been extremely wary of the kid because of the bust factor, but any sort of evidence that he can be an effective NBA player is more than welcome.

Beal did worse than I expected, though his shooting "slump" probably has something to do with that. Just surprised his great rebounding numbers and surprisingly good shot blocking numbers for a guard didn't bump him up there. His TO/Assist ratio probably did him no favors.

Lots of other thoughts, but this is too long already, so I'll just post for comparison's sake Hollinger's bottom line board based on his findings last year:

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Tristan Thompson
4. Jonas Valuncianas
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Enes Kanter
7. Kemba Walker
8. Tobias Harris
9. Alec Burks
10. Jordan Hamilton
11. Bismack Biyombo
12. Brandon Knight
13. Tyler Honeycutt
14. Jon Leuer
15. Nikola Vucevic
16. Chris Singleton
17. Jan Vesely
18. Klay Thompson
19. Norris Cole
20. Iman Shumpert
21. Nikola Mirotic
22. Jimmer Fredette
23. Donatas Motiejunas
24. Greg Smith
25. Marcus Morris
26. JaJuan Johnson
27. Markieff Morris
28. Davis Bertans
29. Kenneth Faried
30. Jeremy Tyler

Reading the Hollinger article made me smile when I read over the part where he said it's risky to draft a PG early unless it's can't miss talent- ala CP3 and Kyrie Irving.

Great to lock in the most important position in basketball for the next 15 years on our first rebuilding draft.

When I look at the team, our cap space, our upcoming draft picks and our dedicated owner on a mission.....I'm so excited to be back in the Q for an electrifying playoff experience in the near future watching a team of young studs.

ClevelandRocks8 said:

Reading the Hollinger article made me smile when I read over the part where he said it's risky to draft a PG early unless it's can't miss talent- ala CP3 and Kyrie Irving.

Great to lock in the most important position in basketball for the next 15 years on our first rebuilding draft.

When I look at the team, our cap space, our upcoming draft picks and our dedicated owner on a mission.....I'm so excited to be back in the Q for an electrifying playoff experience in the near future watching a team of young studs.

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This article might carry more weight than any other NBA draft bloggers and whatnot. The Cavs front office is big on the basketball analytics and statistics so this could be a great barometer as to the possible thought processes of the Cavs decision makers. I also believe that the interview and workout of MKG on Wednesday will be of HUGE importance. I think the Cavs will fall in love with a certain player, i think MKG might be that guy, and will make their move to ensure his acquisition. They have many bullets in the gun to play with and they could get creative.....

Hollinger's ratings also highlight how much variation there will likely be in the actual draft compared to a lot of the mock drafts out there. Teams have a lot more data and a lot more manpower researching all these questions and there are bound to be a ton of suprises. Can't wait for the draft...only thing to live for this time of year.

Obawan12 said:

16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb


21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor


26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo


31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless


36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz


41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. Elias Harris
44. William Buford
45. Jae Crowder


46. Jared Cunningham
47. Jordan Taylor
48. John Jenkins
49. Orlando Johnson
50. Jeffrey Taylor

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This one is fairly odd to me. Lamb and Jenkins are about as similar as you can possibly be. How are they separated by 28 spots?

2 starters too much to ask for?

As soon as the concept of a trade with Portland for 6 & 11 came up, I immediately started fantasizing about Barnes at 6 and Jeremy Lamb at 11.

I thought I would consult the very smart people of this community to ask the following: do you guys think 2 starters from the first round is too much to ask for?

Do you think Kyrie/Lamb/Barnes/Thompson/Varejao can win games? If so, how soon?

Thank you for the insight, and if these are dumb questions or have been discussed previously then try not to blast me too much for it! This is my first post

Homestar said:

This one is fairly odd to me. Lamb and Jenkins are about as similar as you can possibly be. How are they separated by 28 spots?

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Not so similar based on different metrics.