NBA Draft Combine

Why the NBA Draft Lottery Is More Important to the Cleveland Cavaliers Than You Think
By Adam Redling | Yahoo! Contributor Network – 4 hours ago

COMMENTARY | The NBA draft lottery appears, at first glance at least, like a cruel and unusual joke perpetrated by David Stern on the down-and-out franchises of the NBA.

Next Tuesday, 14 middle-aged, slightly overweight NBA executives and other random team representatives donning identical anxiety-laced expressions will be paraded out in front of cameras and forced to sweat under the studio lights while they pray to the lottery gods on behalf of their struggling franchises.

The reason for all this palpable anxiety stems from these individuals having the same predominant thought running through their heads: We need to get a top pick.

Because in the NBA, just being in the lottery isn't enough.

Unlike the NFL and MLB drafts, where franchise players are routinely found throughout the first couple of rounds, if not later, the top few picks of the NBA draft are of unparalleled importance.

Teams that are relegated to the bottom of the lottery tend to spend years wading in NBA purgatory. Without being able to land top-flight players in the draft, teams are resigned to drafting players who are just good enough to keep them picking in the bottom of the lottery. It's a vicious cycle that teams like the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings have seemingly perfected.

The Orlando Magic, Charlotte Bobcats and Cleveland Cavaliers are in the best positions to grab this year's top pick, statistically speaking. The Magic have the best chance at 25 percent, followed by the Bobcats at 19.9 percent and the Cavaliers at 15.6 percent.

The Cavaliers would love the chance to get a top pick in 2013 to pair with Kyrie Irving, the No. 1 pick from 2011, to try and spark a playoff berth next season.

But even if the Cavaliers do get one of the top selections, nothing is guaranteed in the draft.

Top picks don't always make the transition from top prospect to franchise-saving player. For every LeBron James and Kevin Durant, there is a Darko Milicic and Greg Oden. However, for most small-market teams like the Cavaliers who don't have the cache to attract elite free agents, the NBA draft is likely their only shot to accumulate star talent.

Exactly how important is having a top pick?

Analyzing the last three decades of the NBA draft shows that while coaching may be important, and role players are essential for filling out any respectable team, only stars found in the lottery really make a difference.

Only one team in the last 30 years has won an NBA championship without having at least one player drafted within the first three picks on their roster. That distinction goes to the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics, whose highest drafted players, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, were selected fifth in their respective drafts.

Landing one of the top three picks could be especially important this year. Many experts figure that the prospective top three players available -- Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore and Otto Porter -- have more star potential than the rest of the draft.

All three would seemingly be well-suited to the Cavaliers, who could conceivably draft any position other than point guard with their first overall pick.

Whoever the winners and losers will be in this year's lottery is impossible to know, but one thing is certain, the random bounce of a couple of ping-pong balls will change the fate of the Cavaliers and 13 other NBA franchises next Tuesday.

So, when the team representatives and executives entrusted to be their franchise's good-luck charm for the NBA's version of Russian roulette are trotted onstage next week, looking like their lives are hanging in the balance with the opening of every envelope, know that it's because they are -- at least their professional ones.

Adam Redling is a freelance writer from Cleveland, OH. He covers the Cavaliers for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

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Nathan S said:

Any weight measurements on Porter/Oladipo? Hopefully they both beat Noel's 206...

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KB said:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-nba-draft-lottery-more-important-cleveland-cavaliers-215400670.html

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chrisrich91 said:

I wish Muhammad had a better head on his shoulders. At 6'6''+ with a good wingspan, defensive intensity, and shooting ability, he would actually fit our squad.

Alas it seems like he's a ball hog who wants to be THE guy and nothing less. Cares more about himself than the team, and dominates the ball because of that attitude. Can't have that with Dion and Kyrie here...both of whom I'd rather have with the ball than Shabazz.

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Funny Man Rocco said:

Jesus.

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Funny Man Rocco said:

Jesus.

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