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2019 NBA Draft

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I'mWithDan said:
This is just my personal opinion but this, to me, seems like a draft where outside of Barrett and Zion, you just swing for the fences.

Morant has started separating from that 3-14 pack but if you are picking 4 or later, to me, this draft is just about projecting the absolute best case scenario for every player and assessing where each of those best cases slots (Franchise, All-Star, Starter, etc.).

I like Culver and Hunter, they just have low ceilings. They make sense in the mid lotto, as safe values but at the 4/5/6 cutoff, they just don't seem like options in a "process" strategy. Where are you 12 months from now with Trevor Ariza?

This team is going to be bad for 5-6 years. The first few picks of a rebuild, IMO, need to be guys who have ceilings that are multi year All-Star / Franchise.

Just one man's opinion but I don't see Hunter or Culver as multi-year all-star candidates. I think that pool of players, right now is:

Zion, Barrett, Morant, Williams, Hayes

Reddish and Little are on the fringe of that group right now, as is Bol Bol (drug down by injury concerns). Again, that is ceiling......It's unlikely even half of those guys hit theirs but to me, a team that is starting from the studs should not be taking any guys other than those (5), today.

Opinions will probably be mixed on Reddish but I think his ceiling as a two way player is as good as it gets for any of the wings. It's really tough to assess his offense, given 3rd banana status but his defensive tape is awesome. I don't love him but there's a decent amount of evidence that he's a prisoner of his situation on offense and a lot of his faults can be corrected with more opportunities (that should lead to less forcing against defensive pressure)....but we'll see.

A lot can obviously change but the rest of the guys are just really similar to me (8-15). Some I like more than others but you can easily justify any of them outside of that group. Williams will probably be far more polarizing that any other player but every chart has him near Zion in pure production. He lacks the elite athleticism but models just continue to love him. I'm most curious to see where he specifically ends up in this draft.

I'm also curious to see where others grade out ceilings.
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Major-conference guys by ceiling, according to my model (alphabetical within tier):

GOAT ceiling: Zion

All-NBA ceiling: Ponds (Offensive volume/efficiency, outlier steal rate), Williams (high free throw rate, high IQ, functional athleticism)

All-Star ceiling: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, RJ Barrett, Nicolas Claxton, Tyrese Haliburton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ty Jerome, Tre Jones, Chuma Okeke, Justin Robinson, Kaleb Wesson, Cassius Winston

Other than Zion, I think Williams, Barrett, Jones, Alexander-Walker, Ponds, Claxton, Horton-Tucker, and Haliburton could realistically develop into All-Star level players, roughly in order from most to least likely. Jontay Porter would also make the cut based on his numbers last year, but I have no idea what the deal is with his knee. Bitadze also merits serious consideration, but he's tough to evaluate because he's playing in such a different situation.

Hayes isn't too far off making the cut, but his 0 threes and 0.3 assists per game really hurt his rating
 
Nathan S said:
Major-conference guys by ceiling, according to my model (alphabetical within tier):

GOAT ceiling: Zion

All-NBA ceiling: Ponds (Offensive volume/efficiency, outlier steal rate), Williams (high free throw rate, high IQ, functional athleticism)

All-Star ceiling: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, RJ Barrett, Nicolas Claxton, Tyrese Haliburton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ty Jerome, Tre Jones, Chuma Okeke, Justin Robinson, Kaleb Wesson, Cassius Winston

Other than Zion, I think Williams, Barrett, Jones, Alexander-Walker, Ponds, Claxton, Horton-Tucker, and Haliburton could realistically develop into All-Star level players, roughly in order from most to least likely. Jontay Porter would also make the cut based on his numbers last year, but I have no idea what the deal is with his knee. Bitadze also merits serious consideration, but he's tough to evaluate because he's playing in such a different situation.

Hayes isn't too far off making the cut, but his 0 threes and 0.3 assists per game really hurt his rating
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How does your model like PJ Washington?

Also I'd be curious to see how Paul Reed would do on it as well. I really like him as a big wing that has started to shoot this year (though his shot is a little funky). I think he's more of a 2020 guy though with the lack of attention he's gotten so far.
 
3 Ball...GOT IT said:
How does your model like PJ Washington?

Also I'd be curious to see how Paul Reed would do on it as well. I really like him as a big wing that has started to shoot this year (though his shot is a little funky). I think he's more of a 2020 guy though with the lack of attention he's gotten so far.
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PJ Washington was also not far off the cut; my model sees him as a low-uncertainty prospect, which hurts him a little when comparing ceilings. Has him in the "solid starter" range, with a very low chance of being a bust.

It's slightly lower on Paul Reed, though it still sees him as a viable NBA guy, especially on defense. His low 3-point volume and poor assist:TO ratio drags him down relative to PJ.
 
Sir'Dom Pointer said:
I think we need to look into Darius Garland.

I'd try to trade Sexton for him.
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You want to trade a top 10 pick, we've had for less than a year, for a PG that tore his meniscus?

Think it makes far more sense to pass on a PG this year, take BPA at any other position and then wait until next years' class, which to me, looks far better at the lead guard spot. That would give you 2 years to evaluate Sexton, with hopefully a better coach and better roster around him and then address over-drafting him in 2020.

2020 class has early rankings out there and most include 4 PG's in the lottery.....all with quality NBA size. Hayes, Anthony, Maledon, Mannion. And that doesn't include interesting potential combo guard prospects like Bryan Antoine, Josh Green and jumbo guard / point forward Cade Cunningham.

The next draft is just stocked with guard talent. A lot can obviously change but that class looks far better than this IMO, in terms of major conference guard talent and it would give you the additional time to assess your path forward with Sexton.
 
I'mWithDan said:
You want to trade a top 10 pick, we've had for less than a year, for a PG that tore his meniscus?

Think it makes far more sense to pass on a PG this year, take BPA at any other position and then wait until next years' class, which to me, looks far better at the lead guard spot. That would give you 2 years to evaluate Sexton, with hopefully a better coach and better roster around him and then address over-drafting him in 2020.

2020 class has early rankings out there and most include 4 PG's in the lottery.....all with quality NBA size. Hayes, Anthony, Maledon, Mannion. And that doesn't include interesting potential combo guard prospects like Bryan Antoine, Josh Green and jumbo guard / point forward Cade Cunningham.

The next draft is just stocked with guard talent. A lot can obviously change but that class looks far better than this IMO, in terms of major conference guard talent and it would give you the additional time to assess your path forward with Sexton.
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I'd be interested in hearing more about Garland's defense and all-around athletic projection. My perception of him is that he's a little smaller, a little weaker, a little less explosive than you'd like to see in a lottery PG, and then you add a knee injury on top of that. Seems like he has very little margin for error if he's going to have a star-level impact in the NBA.
 
Nathan S said:
Hayes isn't too far off making the cut, but his 0 threes and 0.3 assists per game really hurt his rating
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Yeah, he's still a little raw but he just has an incredible profile. Super bouncy, runs like a wing, has great hands, 4.3 BLK per 40, awesome in transiton......his ceiling is really high.

He is still on the thin side, so that's the tougher part of his projection but assuming his body fills out, his worst case scenario seems like starting PF/center rim protector, who can actually stay on the floor in crunch time.

Given he's probably a multi year project, he makes a lot of sense as a high upside selection for someone like the Cavs (bad for the foreseeable future), if Cleveland ends up sliding to the 5, 6, 7 range.
 
I'mWithDan said:
Yeah, he's still a little raw but he just has an incredible profile. Super bouncy, runs like a wing, has great hands, 4.3 BLK per 40, awesome in transiton......his ceiling is really high.

He is still on the thin side, so that's the tougher part of his projection but assuming his body fills out, his worst case scenario seems like starting PF/center rim protector, who can actually stay on the floor in crunch time.

Given he's probably a multi year project, he makes a lot of sense as a high upside selection for someone like the Cavs (bad for the foreseeable future), if Cleveland ends up sliding to the 5, 6, 7 range.
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I buy that his ceiling is high on defense; my model has him at +4.3 on defense actually, which is the second-highest rating I've ever seen (a hair behind Roy Hibbert). Where it has a problem with him is on offense. There's only so much value a guy can add on lobs and occasional putbacks, and I haven't seen many signs of his game expanding beyond that point.
 
Wooden Award top-20 was announced...building on what I said before, I think an easy way to spot top prospects is to simply sort the best players in the country by age.

(from youngest to oldest within age group)

18 year olds: Zion, RJ

19 year olds: Morant, Howard, Culver

20 year olds: Brazdeikis, Williams, Alexander-Walker, Ponds, Edwards, Winston, Hachimura

21 year olds: Hunter, Lawson, Guy, Schofield

22 year olds: Happ

23 year olds: Caroline, Daum, Martin
 
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Nathan S said:
19 year olds: Howard
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He's like the shadow that keeps following you around. :chuckle:

His Butler tape was really nice.....he's starting to show the ability to score at all 3 levels and a developing P&R game.

Still defensive questions galore but he's actually separated even further in offensive models.

He's #1 in TS% among players with 32.5+ USG
He's #2 in 3PT% among players with 32.5+ USG (#1 min 100 attempts)
He's #5 in ORTG among players with 32.5+ USG
He's #7 in FTR among players with 32.5+ USG
He's #8 in AST% among players with 32.5+ USG

Almost all of the guys he's contending with in these charts are not major conference players either, which make his numbers (top 1/3rd) even that much more impressive given his SOS.
 
Nathan S said:
I buy that his ceiling is high on defense; my model has him at +4.3 on defense actually, which is the second-highest rating I've ever seen (a hair behind Roy Hibbert). Where it has a problem with him is on offense. There's only so much value a guy can add on lobs and occasional putbacks, and I haven't seen many signs of his game expanding beyond that point.
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His shot is a complete unknown, because there is just no tape out there. Your guess is as good as mine.

One anecdote on his shooting potential is that he was a really late grower. Typically those guys can have shooting potential because they developed and refined their mechanics as smaller players. Small sample size but 70%+ FT shooter on 70 attempts also says there's maybe something there moving forward. How much? Who knows.

One place he has flashed some interesting skill is elbow / extended touches where he has put the ball on the floor. He is really coordinated dribbling the ball.

I think the one area of concern on offense is he will really need to develop a left hand to truly be anything other than a catch / put back guy. He has nice feel with his back to the basket and he can score through contact but he is a right hand dominate player......and it's tough for those types of guys to be impactful on offense in ISO post situations against bigger, more athletic defenders.
 
I'mWithDan said:
He's like the shadow that keeps following you around. :chuckle:

His Butler tape was really nice.....he's starting to show the ability to score at all 3 levels and a developing P&R game.

Still defensive questions galore but he's actually separated even further in offensive models.

He's #1 in TS% among players with 32.5+ USG
He's #2 in 3PT% among players with 32.5+ USG (#1 min 100 attempts)
He's #5 in ORTG among players with 32.5+ USG
He's #7 in FTR among players with 32.5+ USG
He's #8 in AST% among players with 32.5+ USG

Almost all of the guys he's contending with in these charts are not major conference players either, which make his numbers (top 1/3rd) even that much more impressive given his SOS.
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Had no idea he was so young, to be honest. Younger than most sophomores, and even some freshmen like Brazdeikis. Was 17 years old for the entire regular season as a freshman, which is an extreme rarity. Definitely changes my perception of him. His defense, like Hayes' offense, is so suspect that I'd still hesitate to take him in the mid-high lottery. But late lottery and beyond I'd have to take a hard look at him.
 
Nathan S said:
Had no idea he was so young, to be honest. Younger than most sophomores, and even some freshmen like Brazdeikis. Was 17 years old for the entire regular season as a freshman, which is an extreme rarity. Definitely changes my perception of him. His defense, like Hayes' offense, is so suspect that I'd still hesitate to take him in the mid-high lottery. But late lottery and beyond I'd have to take a hard look at him.
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I'm curious to see what he measures at. He's listed at 5'11" but I was digging through his database entry and there is a note that he measured at 6'0" without shoes, in his HS junior national camp. Those obviously aren't official combine measurements but even if he's a true 5'11" / 5'11.5", I think teams will get a lot more excited about him as an NBA level scorer.

His next game will be an interesting scouting game for him. St Johns had some longer guys that gave him trouble in their first meeting....probably his worst of the year. It's a nice measuring stick for how he'll adjust to a team game planning against him with some surprise or different coverages, watching that tape and seeing what adjustments he makes. It's on FS1 tonight, if anyone has any interest.
 
I'mWithDan said:
I'm curious to see what he measures at. He's listed at 5'11" but I was digging through his database entry and there is a note that he measured at 6'0" without shoes, in his HS junior national camp. Those obviously aren't official combine measurements but even if he's a true 5'11" / 5'11.5", I think teams will get a lot more excited about him as an NBA level scorer.

His next game will be an interesting scouting game for him. St Johns had some longer guys that gave him trouble in their first meeting. It's a nice measuring stick for how he'll adjust to a team game planning against him with some surprise or different coverages, watching that tape and seeing what adjustments he makes. It's on FS1 tonight, if anyone has any interest.
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For what it's worth, my draft rater actually found a negative correlation between height and offensive success in the NBA (holding box score stats constant, of course). So I have little doubt that his scoring will translate. Where I'd be concerned about him (other than his defense) is his point guard ability. Does he actually have good enough vision to be a point guard in the long run? Or does he need to be paired with a big pass-first point guard?

Needless to say, it's not easy to find big pass-first point guards who can also play well off the ball and stretch the floor. This is similar to the problem I had with Ayton last year...people said "oh, he'll be fine as long as you pair him with a guy who can stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense." But...those guys aren't exactly a dime a dozen players. It really restricts your lineup flexibility.


Oh yeah, and Howard-Ponds tonight is absolutely must-see TV.
 
Nathan S said:
For what it's worth, my draft rater actually found a negative correlation between height and offensive success in the NBA (holding box score stats constant, of course). So I have little doubt that his scoring will translate. Where I'd be concerned about him (other than his defense) is his point guard ability. Does he actually have good enough vision to be a point guard in the long run? Or does he need to be paired with a big pass-first point guard?

Needless to say, it's not easy to find big pass-first point guards who can also play well off the ball and stretch the floor. This is similar to the problem I had with Ayton last year...people said "oh, he'll be fine as long as you pair him with a guy who can stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense." But...those guys aren't exactly a dime a dozen players. It really restricts your lineup flexibility.


Oh yeah, and Howard-Ponds tonight is absolutely must-see TV.
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He does have nice feel as a passer.

Marquette runs a lot of NBA sets......P&R and re-screen action and while he's a score first player, he has good vision and a willingness as a passer.

I don't know that he'll ever be a true facilitating PG but maybe a Lillard esque player......5-6 AST per game and punch as a scorer. 5.1 AST per 40 this year is pretty nice for a player with his shot and scoring volume. You'd think at the NBA level, with better teammates, that his AST totals should rise a bit (if he gets the chance to play a full time role with someone).

Edit: Just looked and he has 10 games this year of 5 AST or more.
 
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