You realize tOPS+ just compares his splits to his normal numbers, right? It doesn't compare him to the rest of the league.
His .258/.354/.442 career against lefties isn't far off from Machado's .282/.335/.487 line against everybody.
Also, his career numbers against left handed starters is .267/.378/.472, and last year he was actually slightly better against left handed starters than right handed starters.
Yeah, I was reinforcing my point that he's not a great performer against lefties outside of drawing walks. Harper's statline as a whole wasn't that great last year anyways. He drew an obscene amount of walks, which I'm not trying to downplay, but he had a career high strikeout rate, his fielding was alright, but nothing special, and he was only a 1.3 WAR guy last year.
He walked 130 times. That's a baseball statistical achievement, only been done 65 times.
Harper's OPS is one of the lowest in league history among guys who have drawn 130+ walks in a season though. He was at .889 last year.
- Eddie Yost did it four times, and his highest OPS in any of those seasons was .871, so Harper beats him out.
- Barry Bonds did it eight times, which is insane. His lowest OPS in any of those seasons is higher than Harper's career OPS by more than a point, but it's unreasonable to expect Bryce to compete with him.
- Lou Gehrig did it twice, both times his OPS was 1.05+, higher than Harper.
- Harmon Killebrew did it twice, both times his OPS was higher than Harper's was last year.
- Tony Phillips did it in 1993, a year he hit 7 homers. His OPS was .841, so Harper has beaten him and Eddie Yost thus far.
- Joe Morgan did it in '75, his OPS was .974.
- Frank Howard did it in '70, his OPS was .962.
- Jack Clark did it twice, one year he beat Harper (1.055), the other he lost (.869).
- Jose Bautista did in 2011, his OPS was over 1.05.
- Mark McGwire did it twice, both times his OPS was over 1.1.
- Some dude named Ferris Fain did it twice and combined for thirteen home runs in those two seasons, so Harper blows him away.
- Joey Votto has done it three times, all three time he's had a better OPS than Harper.
- Brian Giles did it in 2002, had an OPS of 1.072.
- Jeff Bagwell did it twice, both times his OPS was over 1.02.
- Ted Williams did it seven times, Harper wasn't even close.
- The Big Hurt did it twice, both times over 1.
- Babe Ruth did it nine times, his lowest OPS over that stretch is better than Harper's career best.
- Jack Crooks did it in 1892 and hit .213 that season. Count him if you wish.
- Eddie Stanky did it three times and combined for nine home runs in those three seasons. Harper beats him all three times, but Stanky did get close in 1950.
- Willie McCovey and Ralph Kiner both did it once, and both had a higher OPS than Harper.
- Jason Giambi did it once and blew Harper away, also drew 129 walks twice and also beat him.
- Some dude named Roy Cullenbine drew 137 walks in 1947 and had a .917 OPS, so he beats Harper.
- Sheffield did it in '96, and beat Harper.
- Mantle did it once and blew him away.
- Jimmy Sheckard did it in 1911 and hit four homers. Finished below Harper.
- Jimmy Wynn did it in 1970 and narrowly beat Harper.
- Eddie Joost did it in 1949 and lost to Harper by percentage points.
Out of the 65 instances in MLB history where a player has drawn at least 130 walks, Harper had one of the worst offensive seasons out of any of them in terms of OPS. He beat out the likes of Eddie Joost, Jimmy Sheckard, Eddie Stanky, Jack Crooks, Tony Phillips, and Eddie Yost. Half of those guys were retired before WWII even started.
It's not just an old-era thing either - plenty of modern guys like Votto, Bautista, Giambi, Thomas and Sheffield all beat him out.
Again, I'm not saying Harper is trash. He's not. He's pretty damn good and I'd like him on the Indians, but the only reason he has respectable looking numbers against lefties over the past few seasons is his insane walk rate, and in the history of major league baseball, he's near the bottom of the list in terms of pure offensive dominance in the years where he does flash that elite capability.
I'd still take Machado for the next ten years over him and not even blink. If a team wants to give a guy who, over seven years in major league baseball has:
- Played 150 games in a season, x2
- Eclipsed 35 HR in a season, x1
- Reached 100 RBI in a season, x1
- Eclipsed 35 2B in a season, x1
- Eclipsed 150 H in a season, x1
- Eclipsed 275 TB in a season, x1
- Become a negative dWAR outfielder for his career
$10 years, $275+ million, it's their prerogative. I'm not shitting on the guy, or at least I'm trying not to. He's a hell of a talent, but I do think he's overrated. Now if he goes to an AL team where he can DH, stay out of the field, and stay healthier, then any potential deal definitely looks better.