The Navy and Air Force are where the Army was 10 years ago. And that isn't good.
Unfortunately, so long as DoD doesn't offer an alternative to not enough dwell time, I don't know what can be done. Shit, what hope is there if the most glamorous job in the armed forces is having a hard time recruiting?
They've been asking a small number of people to make enormous sacrifices for the better part of 20 years now. When will it end? Going to war is bad enough, but now they're essentially demanding that these men and women not start families because many, many spouses simply can't take the separation. That is just a bridge too far for many.
You're absolutely right that the family time is one of the big issues. Accepting, generally, less pay and less time with family never plays well.
They need to start throwing real money at people, $35K is meh, try $65K, or create a new pilot recruiting program at the college level that doubles the number of qualified candidates.
Rumors run rampant, but apparently the Navy wanted to offer $60k/year, but by the time it got approved, it was $35k.
Oddly enough, I went to AOBC (armor) with a Marine, who later switched to the Air Force and is now a F-15 driver. My sister is a Marine pilot and her resignation letter was rejected. They made a deal so she is still in, but has been on "sabbatical" to go to Med School.
Interesting about your sister. She TacAir? Haven't heard any of the guys around here have that problem, yet. I can imagine it though. The Marines were having guys do five year initial sea tours, which is pretty insane.
Well, there isn't any shortage of inducing new people to join the military as pilots, is there? It's a fantastic job for many college grads.
I'm sure the Navy is trying to have more new pilots. The jet training squadrons' Instructor Pilots are flying three times a day, plus weekends, to try to get quotas met.
But, that only fixes the issue 10 years down the road. No new pilot is going to replace guys with 1,500-2,000 hours, some of them TOPGUN grads (and that could be discussion of its own, but they're likewise leaving at alarming rates), who have 10+ years in the military. If the saying, chiefs are the backbone of the Navy, then the mid tier Aviator is the backbone to Naval Aviation. They're the ones teaching the newer aviators, while also being the best tactically.
If not, it seems to me that part of the problem is that the value of military pilot training is very high, and makes them exceptionally marketable. So you have tons of people willing to become pilots, just not as many are willing to stay pilots. So to adjust that supply/demand a bit...how about lengthening the initial military obligation for pilots by a year or two? That wouldn't solve the problem, but it would mitigate it to some extent. And you could then put the money you've saved by lengthening their contracts into increasing the bonuses for more experienced pilots.
Otherwise, it just sounds like you're going to have to pay those guys a lot more.
Your last point is kind of intriguing. Right now, the service requirement is 8 years post winging, which generally takes around 2 years. Younger people generally don't think about the long term as much, so if they're willing to commit for around 10 years now, what is another, say, 2 years? I'm sure it becomes slightly more difficult to leave after 12 than 10 years (though I would have to look at hard data for years served for those leaving to see).