I was going to post in the off-season thread but put it all here for now as it migrated here ...
The top 3 starters to fill in on day 1 are: Morris, Pilk and Curry - If someone goes down, Morris gets called up, innings limit be damned because
The next tier of starters to supplant Pilk and possibly Curry are - Allen, Cantillo (already on 40) who can take over for a longer duration injury for Morris, if need be. If Plesac gets injured/traded in May/June, I don't mind Morris going 2-3 months full and then Allen/Cantillo come up and send Morris to pen to limit innings.
Last year, we needed 5 other starters Pilk (11), McCarty(2), Gaddis(2), Curry(2), Morris(5). This year, we may only need 3-4 extra starters with fewer DHs and if they do more MiRP openers like Herrin and others to take Shaw(2) and Morgan(1) starts. So when we talk about every game matters, it is really focusing on that 6th and 7th starter you are talking about (rest of games are who is ready to go for a game here or there in an emergency start based on current rest schedule). If you lose 3 starters at once, you are probably SOL anyways.
--Morris has 6th man locked up -- sorry -- but he is best of the best. He is in AAA to keep his length and manage innings on 7 days rest.
--Curry, Pilk, Battenfield and Gaddis will battle for 7th spot in ST but if Curry is close to Pilk with offseason work, he gets the 7th starter spot in AAA as Pilk can hide out in that 8th man spot (get a spot start here or there with Herrin/Morgan combo) and quickly go down to AAA to be extended if/when Morris is called up.
-- Rest of AAA starters should be dedicated to who are your starters in 2023 and the start of 2024 -- on that list I have Allen, Cantillo, Bibee and Williams as getting first crack at things. Fine, if Williams and Bibee start in AA, someone like Battenfield, Gaddis and others should know it is put up or shut-up time because I would not hold our top 8 pitchers (Big 3, Allen, Morris, Cantillo, Curry, Campbell, Burns - maybe) over a 30+ tier prospect like Gaddis and Battenfield who are probably more MiRP in our system.
By June (July latest) our AAA starters should be -- Morris/Cantillo, Allen, Curry, Bibee, Williams and possibly Gaddis/Battenfield winner if Cantillo doesn't slip into his own 6th man slot. By then Gaddis/Battenfield are on top-20 prospect list due to figuring it out or in a MiRP AAA role.