A not-so-quick game recap and look ahead…
First, I’m very grateful that the Chiefs pulled this one out as they should’ve lost. I’m also grateful for you guys, who hate the Bengals so much that you didn’t parrot the “NFL is rigged, refs blew the game!” national talking points
The reason I say the Chiefs should’ve lost is because of the injury situation. Two series in they lost Sneed, their most versatile defender. He’s also their only CB that isn’t a rookie, leaving three rookies to guard Jamar, Higgins, and Boyd. They grew up quick and held their own, thanks in large part to the KC DL and pass rush. They also lost Willie Gay, their fastest/most dynamic LB.
The other injury issue was the WR corps. Going into the game, WR5 Justin Watson was out sick. They slid Skyy up a spot and activated Marcus Kemp, longtime practice squad player and special teams ace. However, by the early third quarter, their WR1 (Juju), WR3 (Toney), and WR4 (Hardman) were all out. They played most of the second half with three WR’s… MVS, Skyy (rookie with 22 catches), and Kemp (PS special teamer). Now, in addition to Kelce, the Chiefs have other TE’s that are good pass catchers in Gray and Fortson. But they’re typically most effective when forgotten about by the defense. Ultimately, it was difficult watching the #1 offense in the league try to move the ball with an injured Mahomes and non-existent receiving corps. I can’t imagine the Chiefs offense will look less explosive in the Super Bowl than it did in the second half of that game.
Looking ahead, they do need to get several of these players back. Most important for the offense is Juju, who is not only their second leading receiver but a Kelce-esque security blanket for Mahomes. He does a great job of finding the holes in zone defense and getting open. Kelce, Juju, and MVS combined for just under 3,000 yards this year, so those three plus healthy RB’s and a couple more WR’s should do it.
Toney and Hardman are more luxuries given that both are usually hurt, combining for 15 games, 468 yards, and 6 TD’s this season. The irony is that last night was their first game playing together and both got hurt. Toney is more likely to return and they probably need at least one of them to play the role of punt returner (credit to Skyy coming up clutch but his 3 muffs in the regular season were awful).
Ultimately the biggest challenge for the KC offense will be protecting Mahomes, who likely still won’t be healthy enough to scramble and extend plays like usual. The Eagles pass rush is great and usually gets home with only four. That’s a problem for the Chiefs and the OL will need to protect. There is a wrinkle I’m interested in seeing Andy Reid exploit. The Eagles were #1 in total defense when teams had no presnap motion but #22 when facing presnap motion. The 49ers run the most presnap motion but we didn’t get a chance to see that play out given the early injury to Purdy. The Chiefs run a ton of presnap motion as well and I expect them to dial it up.
Defensively expect the Chiefs to bring a ton of pressure and exotic looks like Spags usually does. They got home with four against Cincinnati but their OL was very rough. Against Philly they’ll likely bring blitz packages and spy Hurts. Ironically the KC defense looks good against the run and bad against the pass, but that’s only because of how teams play them when they get behind. Philly’s rushing attack scares me and they’ll need to be careful with Hurts. They have their work cut out for them, but I trust Spags when it comes to confusing QB’s, especially younger ones, in big games.
TL;DR Chiefs need to get healthy, exploit some match ups, and throw everything they have at Hurts. The Eagles are favored but I won’t count out KC just yet. Also just booked my flight out to PHX!