2014 St. Louis Cardinals Preview

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2013 Review​

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the poster boy for consistent mid-market success. Since the new millennium, the Cardinals have had 1 losing season, and only once have missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. Last year was even better than what they’ve been accustomed to. They won 99 games and scored 783 runs, both the highest since 2005. The 596 runs against was their lowest since 1985. They made the World Series for the 4th time since 2004, falling in 6 games to the Red Sox.

As a team, the Cardinals had a great offense and a solid pitching staff. Their offense led the NL in runs scored and on-base percentage, finished 2nd in batting average and OPS, and 3rd in slugging. Their pitching staff finished 5th in the NL in ERA and had an ERA+ of 111. The starters had a collective ERA of 3.42 and the bullpen had an ERA of 3.45. They also led the NL in fielding percentage (more on this later).

Many Cardinals had great individual seasons. Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter finished 3rd and 4th, respectively in NL MVP voting. Matt Holliday (144 OPS+), Allen Craig (131), Matt Adams (131), and Carlos Beltran (128) all had very good seasons. Of the 10 players with the most plate appearances, 8 of them had OPS+ over 100.

On the bump, Adam Wainright had a tremendous season, finishing 2nd to the Clayton Kershaw Express in the Cy Young voting. Wainright led the NL in IPs and Wins and finished in the top 10 in ERA, K’s and WHIP. Uber prospects Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha helped fill out the rotation. Miller won 15 games and had a 3.06 ERA in 31 starts. Wacha only made 9 regular season starts, but went 4-1 in the postseason, giving up 3 ER in his first 27 innings. In the bullpen, Edward Mujica lead the team with 37 saves, Trevor Rosenthal led the bullpen with 75 IPs and 108 Ks, and lefty Kevin Siegrist gave up 2 ER in 39.1 IP.

Key Additions
Jhonny PEDralta
Peter Bourjos
Mark Ellis

Key Losses
Carlos Beltran
Edward Mujica
John Axford
Jake Westbrook
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Offensive Overview: From the stats listed above, you’d think St. Louis had no holes to fill. In fact, they did, and filled them very simply…and interestingly.

Despite leading the NL in fielding percentage, the Cardinals defense was abysmal per more advanced metrics. They had a team dWAR of -5.4, and a team UZR of -49.4, which was 27th in the league. Molina and SS Pete Kozma were the only regulars who were noticeable above average on defense.

So, of course St. Louis gave Jhonny 53 million to replace Kozma, their only good non catching defender.

Wait…what?

Yes, an already bad defensive team replaced their 2nd best defender with Jhonny Peralta. Unfortunately for St. Louis, Kozma was quite possibly the worst hitting regular in MLB last year, with an OPS+ 54. For non-stat geeks, imagine a hitter who is an exactly average hitter. Now, take his numbers in a full season, cut them in half, and you get what Pete Kozma did last year.

So even if Jhonny has a subpar season for him (somewhat likely, seeing as he won’t be getting as much, um, “off field help”), he will be a massive upgrade offensively. Now, how do we fix the defense?

St. Louis made 2 simple moves to fix their defense. 1st, they let Carlos Beltran leave via Free Agency. Still a very good hitter, the 36 year old had regressed in the field. Second, they traded 2011 postseason hero 3B David Freese to Anaheim for OF Peter Bourjos. Bourjos replaces Beltran in the OF, and is a large upgrade defnesively. Carpenter will shift from 2nd base (where he was pretty average, defensively) to 3rd, and prospect Kolton Wong, reputed to have a good glove, will take over at 2nd. Craig moves to outfield after platooning at 1st with Adams. Mark Ellis will serve as utility man and platoon with Wong.

Projected Lineup
1.) Matt Carpenter – 3B
2.) Peter Borjous – CF
3.) Matt Holliday – LF
4.) Allen Craig – RF
5.) Matt Adams – 1B
6.) Yadier Molina – C
7.) Jhonny Peralta – SS
8.) Kolton Wong – 2B
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Pitching Overview:
Cardinals lost closer Edward Mujica and solid vet Jake Westbrook. Their biggest offseason pitching addition was….Pat Nesheck.

The Cardinals will being bolstering their pitching staff from youngsters within. Already mentioned were the contributions of 23 year old Miller and 22 year old Wacha. Wacha will be asked to make more than 9 starts and pitch more than 64 innings this year.

26 year old Joe Kelly has split the last 2 years between the pen and the rotation. He was recently named the winner of the #5 spot in the rotation.

Replacing Mujica will be 24 year old Rosenthal, who had 3 saves last year. Helping him will be 24 year old Siegrist. A name to watch is 22 year old Carlos Martinez. Martinez is likely a future starter, but did make 20 relief appearances last year. He “lost” the #5 spot to Kelly, and will start in the pen. Expect him be the first guy to replace an injured or ineffective starter. Jaime Garcia has been effective when healthy, but injuries cost him a shot at the #5 spot. Once he mends, he could be an arm added later on.

Rotation
Adam Wainright
Michael Wacha
Lance Lynn
Shelby Miller
Joe Kelly​

Best Case Scenario – Win the World Series. The Cardinals could get career norm production from everybody and be the best team in baseball. If everything goes well, they will be one of, if not the favorite.

Wainwright, Molina and Carpenter are legit superstars. Holliday is still one of the most feared bats in the Majors. The rest of the offense has enough good hitters to be amongst the best in the League. There are enough young, good arms to have a good staff again. If Peralta can adequately replace Beltran's production and Bourjos and Wong/Ellis stabilize the defense, 100 wins is easily attainable.

Worst Case scenario – Their defense continues to struggle. Jhonny is a PED wonder and the bat of Beltran is missed. The youngsters in the rotation and pen struggle.

Even if all this happens, they still win 85 games and challenge for a playoff spot.

Prediction – They go through a few stretches where their young staff struggles, causing a small drop off from last year. Peralta’s offense doesn’t quite make up for Beltran. 94-68, 1st place in NL Central.