A Closer Look at Nik Stauskas

[Derek]

Current Rankings
#14 on DraftExpress
#16 on Chad Ford's Big Board

This season
17.5 PPG
3.3 APG
.500 2PT%
.442 3PT%
.824 FT%
.642 TS%
22.7 PER

Recent measurements
6'6"
205 LBS
6'7" wingspan
​

Stauskas is the clear-cut leader of his team, averaging 17.8 points per game with tremendous efficiency (54% 2P%, 45% 3P%), thanks to his terrific perimeter shooting ability and much-improved ability to create offense and operate effectively off the dribble.

While his draft stock has undoubtedly increased substantially as the year has moved on, concerns still exist among scouts regarding his lack of upside defensively, due to his unappealing combination of poor length, average frame and mediocre lateral quickness.

Additionally, it remains to be seen the extent of which he will be able to create his own shot and finish around the basket against NBA caliber defenders, although he has made significant strides in dispelling those doubts this season.

Nevertheless, the premium that teams are placing on perimeter shooting in today's NBA has put Stauskas in an enviable position as a draft prospect, should he decide to capitalize on his increased stock this upcoming fall.

Matchups against the likes of Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Florida State, Iowa, Iowa State, Wisconsin and others have given us ample opportunity to evaluate Stauskas' strengths and weaknesses as a prospect, which we've done in the following video scouting report, courtesy of Mike Schmitz.

via DraftExpress

[video=youtube;M-ymNs3Bce8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-ymNs3Bce8[/video]




Chad Ford's Draft Profile

Overall Rank 16
Position Rank 4
Hollinger PER 21.89
Projection Mid-First Round Pick

Positives

• Versatile scoring guard
• Excellent shooter with deep range
• Quick release on his jumper
• Incredible free throw shooter
• Good handle, can play some point

Negatives

• Needs to add strength
• Not an elite athlete as far ask quickness goes

Stauskas could be lottery-bound

On Tuesday, Michigan guard Nik Stauskas announced that he will enter the 2014 NBA draft. To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Amin Elhassan (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices).

Nik Stauskas | 6-6, 205 pounds | SHOOTING GUARD | SOPHOMORE
Chad Ford's Top 100: No. 19
Strengths: Shooting, TO%, PF% | Weaknesses: Usage, Rebound%, Steal%
WARP projection: 1.2 (26th among top 100)
Comparables: Doron Lamb (94.9), John Jenkins (91.6), Daniel Gibson (91.3), Terrico White (90.8)


The analytics perspective

Kevin Pelton: Thanks to his ability to knock down shots, Stauskas is an elite offensive prospect. Among players in Chad's top 50, only Doug McDermott has a better projected true shooting percentage (.550) for next season based on translated college performance. And while Stauskas will probably be primarily a role player early in his NBA career, he's shown the ability to create his own shot, which makes him more than just a specialist.

However, real concerns about his defensive contributions drive down his WARP projection. Among perimeter players in my database of college translations dating back to 2003, only Jason Kapono and Joe Crawford have made the NBA with similarly poor NCAA steal rates. Given the importance of steal rate as an indicator of NBA success, that's a red flag, and Stauskas is also poor on the glass.

The scouting perspective

Amin Elhassan: The 2014 draft is thick with combo guards, and Stauskas throws his hat into that ring. He's a terrific shooter from all areas of the floor, and possesses a nice, fluid stroke and quick release. He consistently was one of the best shooters in college. Additionally, he's a crafty finisher around the basket, using off-rhythm dribbles and/or steps to get to the front of the rim and avoid shot-blockers. Stauskas has 2-guard size at 6-foot-6 but does not have a long wingspan. He does have good vision and passes well with both hands (with decent accuracy on passes).

In pick-and-roll play, he does a good job of reading options and making quick decisions. I question whether he has the explosion to beat guys off the bounce with a live dribble, but I love his ability to run a secondary pick-and-roll off the catch on the wing. In many ways, Stauskas reminds me of J.J. Redick in his ability to run pick-and-roll or catch the ball moving off screens and deliver pocket passes. Plus, he does a good job of hitting ahead in transition.

However, there are serious questions about Stauskas' ability to defend. On-ball, he can be "magnetized" by screens, anticipating contact even when the screener has slipped and letting his man get by. Off-ball, he has good awareness but small strides make it hard for him to close out in a hurry. He also has a bad habit of gambling and trying to shoot the gap on screens rather than locking and trailing. Otherwise, he doesn't give you much in the way of steals or defensive rebounds.

Stauskas' dead-eye shooting and playmaking give him a chance to be a solid rotation player, a la Redick, but his defensive habits must improve (also a la Redick).

The NBA front-office perspective

Chad Ford: There are really two paths to becoming a high draft pick. One is to have unique physical attributes and athletic ability; if you have great size, length, explosiveness or quickness for a particular position, you always get a look. The other is to have a skill that easily translates to the NBA.

Stauskas has the latter. Most NBA GMs and scouts consider him one of the best pure shooters in the draft. He has a super quick release on his jumper and can get it off against just about anywhere on the floor. In a league devoid of great shooters, Stauskas is an instant commodity.

However, he's more than just a shooter. He has an excellent handle, can play the point in a pinch and has a high basketball IQ that allows him to score in other ways besides 3s. The only real knock on him is on the defensive end. He lacks the lateral quickness to guard most 2s at the next level.

Still, this draft doesn't have a lot of elite prospects who are great shooters. Once we get out of the top 10, the first team that really needs shooting from the guard position is going to be sorely tempted. He should go somewhere between Nos. 12 to 24 on draft night.

via 360 draft profile by Chad Ford, Kevin Pelton & Amin Elhassan