Karma said:
Well if you want to add Simmons to your list of 4's then I will add the more natural power forward LeBron James to the Cavalier's list. The only reason Simmons has been tagged to play some PF minutes is the lack of decent natural power forwards on their roster. Kukoc plays there as he is too slow to match up on 3's and he'll be overpowered by 90% of his opponents. TJ you have to admit the 4 spot is the Bucks weakness however many ways you may try and disguise it. You know that Gadzuric and Bogut are not as effective at the 4 as they are the 5! Like I said there will be many power forward candidtes in the lottery in summer to find your long term partner for Bogut!
Well Karma, Simmons actually played some power forward for the Clips last year. Lebron doesn't have the defensive toughness to pull that off for any meaningful minutes. Also when asked why the Bucks did not match the relatively modest 16 mil offer that Zaza Pachulia received, Bucks' GM Larry Harris stated "Zaza's fate was sealed pretty much the day we signed Bobby Simmons". I don't want to see Simmons at the 4, but clearly the Bucks may want to present a Pheonix style attack next season with Simmons (who we measued at 6-7 without shoes...confirming his Chicago pre-draft numbers) effectively being Shawn Marion (6-7) in our offense. I hate the idea but they are definitely going to try starting Redd, Mason, and Simmons in training camp. The Bucks best offensive/defensive lineup (and resulting bench) looks like this:
Ford
Redd
Simmons
Bogut/Gadz
Bogut/Gadz
With Smith, Mason, Williams, and Kukoc filling out the rotation.
I'll grant you that power forward is the Bucks weakest position right now. But that is only relative to the strength that they possess at other positions:
Point Gaurd: Ford (fully cleared and 100% physically), Williams, Bell...STRONG
Shooting Gaurd: Redd, Mason, Welsch.....STRONG
Small Forward: Simmons, Mason, Kukoc (situational)....Very Good
Power Forward: Smith, Kukoc, Simmons (situational), Bogut/Gadz...Good
Center: Bogut, Gadz, Smith (situational), Johnson...Strong
In line with your mentioning of rotations, realize that barring injury or foul trouble at:
Point Gaurd....Ford or Williams will always be in the game
Shooting Gaurd/Small Forward.....Any 2 of Redd, Mason, and Simmons
Power Forward......Smith, Gadz, or Kukoc will always be in the game
Center......Bogut or Gadz at all times
The Cavaliers I'll assess as such:
Point Gaurd: Snow, Jones, Hughes (situational)......Good
Shooting Gaurd: Hughes, Pavlovic, James (situational).....Very Good
Small Forward: James, Jackson, Newble, Marshall (situational)........Excellent
Power Forward: Gooden, Marshall, Varejao (?), Henderson....Very Good
Center: Ilgauskas, Henderson, White (?).....Very Good
Legend Order:
Excellent (6pts)
Strong (5pts)
Very Good (4pts)
Good (3pts)
Average (2pts)
Poor (1pt)
Totals: Milwaukee (21pts) Cleveland (21pts)
By my estimation, the teams are virtually equal assuming that both teams are healthy and 100%. A player like Lebron would normally be the tie breaker but LeYoung hasn't proved that he can rally a team for crucial victories on the strength of his individual talent a la Allen Iverson.
It will be a dog fight but I think the Bucks have better intangibles (work ethic, fighters, gamers, and hard workers) as evidenced by the number of second round picks made good: Redd, Simmons, Gadzuric, Williams, and Kukoc. Also, while the Cavs are stronger overall in the starting 5, the Bucks are better 6-10 and thus are better equiped to sustain after an injury to a key starter:
If Redd goes down.....Insert Simmons and Welsch
If Hughes goes down..Insert Pavlovic and (street free agent)
If Simmons goes down....Insert Mason and Kukoc
If Lebron goes down...Insert Jackson and Newble
If Bogut goes down.....Insert Gadzuric
If Ilgauskas goes down....Cancel Christmas
Bucks 5th seed.............Cavs 6th seed--------------> Book it!
Consider yourselves lucky that I'm delivering New Jersey to you in the first round. The Bucks would be on the road end of a series against the Pacers, but that's one that we like. We have no fear of the Pacers and are probably the team in the division that has the greatest chance of eliminating them from the playoffs. That's the series that I want and that would be the series that would usher in our takeover of the Central Division. We have youth at pg, sg, sf, and center on our side. Ultimately (2 years) the division will belong to the Bucks for the longhaul.