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By Randy Hill: http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/9865514/For-these-guys,-next-season-is-a-proving-ground
Since we've learned that Kobe Bryant's mountaintop can be a Shaq-free environment, several other unreconciled NBA burdens of proof are ready to step forward and be counted.
Our candidates for attempted legitimacy can be arraigned by circumstance. For example, quite a few players didn't play up to previous standards or prevailing pay grades during the previous season and should feel quite put upon to produce in the 2009-2010 campaign.
Others will find themselves suspected of becoming frighteningly well-to-do in 2010 free agency, thus creating a need to perform at a level commensurate with the loot many teams may be willing to pay.
We also will include hot-seat-riding coaches and window-watching teams that may require big playoff efforts to sidestep wholesale dismantling.
With the pressure being ratcheted up all over the league, we've come up with a list of players, coaches and teams most likely to perspire in the coming months.
Elton Brand, Power Forward, Philadelphia 76ers: After leaving buddy Baron Davis high and dry at the Los Angeles Clippers' free-agent party, Brand promptly signed with Philly and transformed the Sixers from a bouncy, fast-break team into a slower — and less effective — model.
While the Sixers slowed their pace to accommodate him, Brand averaged a measly 13.8 points and 8.8 rebounds, making only 45 percent of his shots from a modest range. His career averages are 20 points and 10 rebounds, with the field-goal percentage checking in at 50 percent.
We'll see how Brand does after coming back from a shoulder injury that limited him to 29 games; the Sixers were four games under .500 when he left and finished four games over.
Greg Oden, Center, Portland Trail Blazers: In his first bid to prove he really isn't the second coming of Sam Bowie, the 2007 NBA Draft's first overall pick gave the Blazers nine points and seven rebounds per game.
He started 39 of his 61 games, demonstrating he really should turn out to be more than the stunt double for Joel Przybilla.
Portland seems on the verge of making a substantial hop forward in the Western Conference hierarchy. Oden seems incapable of even coming close to preliminary projections of basketball-world domination but could be good enough on defense and the boards to be a huge factor for a contending team.
Another misstep will not do much for his popularity in Oregon.
Vince Carter, Shooting Guard, Orlando Magic: With the versatile and underrated Hedo Turkoglu off to Toronto in free agency, Carter was acquired in a deal that could turn out to be a masterstroke or disaster in the petri dish.
Will Carter's ability to create scoring opportunities (usually for himself) provide late-game options when Dwight Howard is blanketed by defenders and his own free-throw genius? Or will this suspected coach-killer be the final nail in the Orlando run of Stan Van Gundy?
Gilbert Arenas, Point Guard, Washington Wizards: With five years and more than $96 million left on Gilbert's current contract, the serially tricky left knee of Agent Many Zeros will be one to watch this season.
Even when healthy, a volume-shooting point guard should be quite a hayride for first-year coach Flip Saunders. As long as the rest of us don't have to coach him, the NBA seems like a more interesting place when Arenas is playing well.
Monta Ellis, Combo Guard, Golden State Warriors: With Steph Curry riding into town as another scoring machine attempting conversion to the play-maker mentality, Ellis may have trouble re-claiming his Warriors role.
Then again, if both of them, especially Curry, can find someone they can actually defend once in a while, Don Nelson's free-wheeling style could allow both players to flourish.
If not, the Warriors have Monta's $55 million over five years — or Curry — to move.
Baron Davis, Point Guard, Los Angeles Clippers: Zach Randolph and Ricky Davis are gone, but Coach Mike Dunleavy isn't.
If Davis can reach some on-court alliance with Dunleavy, he could have fun with young playmates like Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon and Al Thornton.
But Davis and his alleged re-commitment to playing fearless point guard would have been quite interesting with the addition of Allen Iverson ... in a rubbernecking sort of way.
Amare Stoudemire, Power Forward, Phoenix Suns: With Shaquille O'Neal no longer clogging the middle of what will be Coach Alvin Gentry's screen-and-roll-oriented half-court sets, Stoudemire should put up big numbers.
If his eye is healed.
We'll find out if the light he sees at the end of the upcoming tunnel is a free-agency escape or a happy commitment to run-and-gun glory.
Steve Nash, Point Guard, Phoenix Suns: Now that he's all set to renew his Suns vows, we'll have to find out if the crafty veteran has retained enough quickness to still go from point A to point B.
We'll also need to find someone Nash can guard.
Shaquille O'Neal, Center, Cleveland Cavaliers: The best reality show out there figures to be "Shaq vs. Father Time."
If the Diesel can remain trim enough to avoid hip and lower-leg calamities, he may be just enough to help LeBron James reach the promised land.
A good showing also may enable Shaq to keep the extracurricular activities as recreation ... instead of serving as the lead paycheck.
Cleveland Cavaliers, Team, At Crossroads: If LeBron tires of tweaking the Cavs with his free-agent leverage and reaches an extension agreement, things will be just ducky.
But without that, a slow start or demonstration of vulnerability could lead to panic maneuvers at the trading deadline.
Include in our burden-of-proof roster the name Mike Brown, who could go from Coach of the Year to emergency TV analyst in the blink of an eye.
New Orleans Hornets, Team, Attempting to Stay Relevant: Where did all of those Chris Paul trade rumors start?
Anyway, after a disappointing season, the Hornets made a bid to hold off some Western Conference buddies by swapping Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. That could make them slightly better on offense.
So should the drafting of point guard Darren Collison, who can give Paul some quality moments of R&R and provide drive-and-kick terror when Byron Scott chooses to go really small.
If Julian Wright could add shooting consistency from the wing, Scott might not be included as a potential hot-seat candidate.
Vinny Del Negro, Coach, Chicago Bulls: The guy who didn't even coach a fantasy team before getting hired last season certainly seemed a lot wiser after the Bulls added John Salmons and Brad Miller.
But the Bulls have lost Ben Gordon, signed Jannero Pargo and drafted James Johnson, who may be a fine addition but not the low-post answer Chicago needs.
The feel-good notion of that wild playoff series with Boston could be forgotten if Vinny and the Bulls fail to keep pace with their improving Eastern Conference cronies.
Rasheed Wallace, Power Forward, Boston Celtics: We know he can walk the playoff walk, but will 'Sheed talk the talk (to the wrong referee) and cost his team when it really matters?
Chris Bosh, Power Forward, Toronto Raptors: He's been legit for quite a while and will have Turkoglu to help him win games and inspire teams to offer riches beyond his wildest dreams (it should be noted that his agent's wildest dreams are right in that wheelhouse).
Carlos Boozer, Power Forward, Utah Jazz: This extremely rare 20-and-10 guy spent a great deal of time in street clothes, and his team didn't exactly fall apart.
Sure, they're better with him, but the Jazz seem to think Paul Millsap is good enough to hold down the position for much less than Carlos has on the last year of his current contract or what he intends to make next summer.
The 2009-2010 season needs to be a beauty (wherever it occurs) on the stat line and in the win column for Boozer to really cash in.
