What Cavs must do to survive
So the Cavs are fighting for their playoff lives, and all eyes are on LeBron James to see how he'll respond in the wake of his shocking apathy in Game 5.
But all the focus on LeBron has distracted us from the fact the rest of the Cavs didn't exactly light it up, either. Having LeBron play like his MVP self isn't a panacea for Game 6 -- it's a minimum requirement. Roster spots two through 12 also need to play better for Cleveland to prevail, and the coaching staff can help with a few rotation tweaks.
To start with, there's the defense. Regardless of how well or how poorly James shot the ball, the Cavs' defensive play was so subpar that they wouldn't have won anyway: Cleveland surrendered 120 points, including a whopping 70 in the second half.
The Cavs got only eight stops in the third quarter and just three in the fourth. That's 70 points, 11 stops. No, not a good ratio, especially coming against an offense that was just 13th in efficiency in the regular season.
Next, there's the lack of second shots. Cleveland pundits have been talking about Boston's second shots, primarily because Boston got offensive rebounds before both Ray Allen 3-pointers that broke open Game 5 at the start of the third quarter, but the Celtics' offensive rebound rate for the series is a ho-hum 26.2 percent.
Rather, it's Cleveland's inability to rebound on the offensive end that's the shocker -- the Cavs have grabbed just 20.1 percent of their missed shots, including a pathetic three offensive boards in the Game 4 defeat.
Those two elements -- defense and second shots -- both point back to one thing: Cleveland needs to make better use of Anderson Varejao. He played 28 minutes a game in the regular season but has averaged only 23 in the playoffs, and just 20 in the Boston series.
Looking at the Cavs' five-man lineup results in the playoffs on basketballvalue.com, one thing jumps off the page: Playing Varejao at center works. Among the Cavs' most frequently used lineups, those with Varejao in the middle have been dramatically more effective than those with Shaquille O'Neal or Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
That's no mystery to anyone who saw Varejao repeatedly embarrass Rasheed Wallace with his superior effort level in the teams' regular-season meetings. But because the Cavs have been trying to get the Antawn Jamison-Shaq frontcourt synced up before the conference finals start -- and maybe because of Varejao's back issues -- they've made less use of what's perhaps their best frontcourt weapon.
What I would do is play O'Neal at the start of each quarter to let him draw fouls and put the Cavs in the bonus, and then let Varejao close out each quarter. Five minutes of Shaq, seven minutes of Andy, every quarter, at the center spot.
Which then leaves Jamison, and how to resolve the 10 to 15 minutes that he's on the bench. All series long, the Cavs have matched up big off the bench, but I think this may be a mistake. The Varejao-Shaq frontcourt doesn't work because it kills the spacing on offense, and while the Cavs had some success with a Varejao-Ilgauskas alignment in the regular season, it hasn't been terribly effective in the playoffs. Cleveland could also turn to J.J. Hickson, although his defensive shortcomings may be an issue opposite Kevin Garnett.
That leaves one other option: Playing small with LeBron at the 4. While the Cavs prefer to take advantage of their size, they can also match up small with LeBron and Jamario Moon at the forward spots, or with Anthony Parker sliding up to play small forward. The advantage is that it opens up the floor and counteracts Boston's particularly strong knack for shrinking it, potentially allowing James to wreak havoc in the process.
The Cavs have used this lineup only once in the series, and it was in garbage time: A six-minute stretch of the fourth quarter in Game 3 when they already had a 28-point lead. It seems now would be a good time to use this bullet rather than keeping it in their holster all summer.
In the backcourt, the biggest issue has been how to hide Mo Williams on defense. The best answer, it seems, is to just put him on Rajon Rondo and live with the consequences. Cleveland has lost three of four since switching the matchup so that Parker would guard Rondo, with Williams guarding Allen. While Rondo has had his way with Williams, this arrangement at least allows Parker to contain Allen. Since the empirical evidence suggests Parker can't guard Rondo either, the Cavs really gain nothing from the switch.
The bigger dilemma for Cleveland is what to do about Williams on offense. The Cavs ran several plays for Williams in the first quarter of Game 5 to try to get him going, but he still finished with just nine points. Save for one third-quarter explosion in Game 1, he's been a nonfactor on the offensive end, and that can't happen if he's getting abused on D. His numbers for the series are terrible -- 39.6 percent shooting, 3-of-15 on 3s, and just 11.6 points per game. At this point, the Cavs just have to trust that the law of averages will catch up, because they lack great alternatives.
In fact, that points to the biggest part of Cleveland's challenge heading into Game 6. Yes, there are tactics the Cavs can employ to improve their chances, but the lion's share of the problem is that they just need to play better. Williams is one example, and James is another glaring one, but several other Cavs (Jamison, Delonte West, and, yes, Varejao) haven't been their regular-season selves in this series.
Cleveland can help itself by making better use of Varejao at the center spot, playing some small ball when Jamison checks out and avoiding the panic rotation moves that plagued the past couple of games. None of it will matter, however, unless all the Cavs -- not just James -- play substantially better than they did in Games 4 and 5.
