Hollinger's Forecast's for Top College Prospects

[_amon _ones]

From ESPN Insider:

OK everyone, it's time to tiptoe through the minefield again. Last June, I introduced a draft rating method that looked at a player's college stats and attempted, from those numbers, to forecast his NBA potential.

Going back through five drafts, the method has worked fairly well, and early returns for this year are encouraging too. For instance, the method's support of Marvin Williams as the No. 2 pick in 2005 looks a whole lot better now. So do Ronnie Brewer and Rudy Gay as top-five worthy picks in 2006 and Big Baby Davis and Jared Dudley as sleepers this past June.

It ain't perfect, but over the past six years it's picked out fewer dogs and more stars than the people doing the actual drafting, so the results are worth noting. And with a few teams already looking ahead to the 2008 draft (I won't name names, but one of them rhymes with "two pork sticker shockers"), it seems a good time to bust out the method again and start looking at some collegians who could be in the draft.

Because we have so few results from the 2007-08 season, there's a catch -- we're looking only at the rising sophomores, juniors and seniors who stayed in school, based on their numbers from 2006-07. Obviously, freshmen like Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo, among others, will alter this list in a major way come June -- not to mention all the international players. Nonetheless, this exercise gives us a lay of the land as we head into the noncupcake portion of the college hoops season.

Before I begin, we need a few disclaimers. The biggest is that I used the heights given by the schools, which in many cases are suspicious. Since height is a factor in the system, especially for guards and power forwards, how these guys measure at the pre-draft camps can send them zooming up or down the chart. Second, birthdate information for collegians is a bit erratic. In fact, I'm thinking of setting up a Web site called "collegeplayersbirthdays.com."

Finally, keep in mind that several of the top-rated players in the upcoming draft are likely to be freshmen and international players. If you buy the logic that there are only about 10 impact players in each draft, then it follows that there might not be more than a couple players on this list who turn into strong pros. Since most of last season's top underclassmen turned pro, we're basically sifting through a barrel that's already been cherry-picked.

But with that out of the way, let's have the chart please. Here are the top 20 rising major collegians for 2007-08:

Player |School| Rate
Chase Budinger |Arizona| 688.37
Ty Lawson| North Carolina| 627.02
Roy Hibbert |Georgetown| 615.39
Ryan Anderson |California |608.03
Darrell Arthur |Kansas| 588.19
Lawrence Hill |Stanford |578.01
Chris Lofton |Tennessee| 566.91
Patrick Beverley |Arkansas| 546.71
Darren Collison| UCLA| 545.07
K.C. Rivers |Clemson| 540.85
D.J. White |Indiana |531.81
Wayne Ellington |North Carolina| 530.73
Jamont Gordon |Mississippi St. |522.97
Tyrese Rice |Boston College| 515.87
Wayne Chism |Tennessee |510.45
Josh Heytvelt |Gonzaga| 510.31
Tyler Hansbrough| North Carolina| 500.11
Jodie Meeks |Kentucky |494.64
Luke Harangody |Notre Dame| 494.20
Danny Green |North Carolina |489.96

My initial reaction to the list is something along the lines of "Could we get a few more short guards in here?" But that's what happens when you look at a list of rising collegians -- all the best big guys turn pro, leaving the guards as the best of the leftovers. With Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Brandan Wright, Al Horford and Joakim Noah departing, perimeter players like Budinger and Lawson inevitably become the top returnees. The same thing will happen again next year and the year after that.

Budinger's status as the top prospect will surprise nobody, and the next four names on the list don't come as a big shock either -- all project as high first-rounders on Chad Ford's draft board right now except Anderson, who isn't exactly slumming at No. 38 and is off to a monstrous start this season.

Collison, White and Ellington also are familiar names to draftniks -- the first as a first-round prospect at the point, the latter two as possible high second-rounders.

Beyond those names, it gets a little dicey. Let's get right to the questions that most of you might have:

Lawrence Hill? Who? If you bet on which Stanford player would rate highest, you probably lost. No, it's not Brook Lopez. And it's not twin brother Robin either. It's Hill, the one player on this list who is likely to generate the greatest level of disagreement -- he's not on Chad's board at all, and he's not exactly lighting it up in his junior season. Why is he so high? His youth is a big reason -- though a junior, he's barely a month older than O.J. Mayo -- as is the lack of red flags in his statistical profile. We'll see if he can keep it up this season, or if his sophomore numbers prove to be a fluke.

Marginal guards of the world, unite: Chris Lofton, Patrick Beverley and K.C. Rivers aren't household names outside the southeastern U.S., but each rates very well here. Lofton and Beverley rate high despite dings for being massively undersized shooting guards -- the numbers say they might succeed in an Eddie House role, especially Lofton, who has essentially done that for Tennessee the past three seasons.

Beverley had a very strong freshman year for Arkansas last season, and it's possible he could progress into a true point guard in the next season or two (I was conservative and rated him as a 2) -- certainly that's what scouts will be looking for.

Rivers is another good shooter, and at 6-5 his size isn't a worry -- plus he can really rebound. His profile is reminiscent of Utah's Morris Almond, minus the horrid ballhandling numbers. The junior led a 25-win team in scoring last season despite starting only 10 games, yet I haven't heard a peep about him from draftniks.

But as much as the names on the list inspire questions, I have a feeling many more will come regarding the names that aren't on the list. So let's get to some of them:

Why is Hansbrough so low? For those who haven't been following Chad's work the past two years, pro scouts are significantly less excited about UNC's Tyler Hansbrough than college fans. He plays a below-the-rim game, as illustrated by his having 17 blocks all last season, and his rebound rate last season was unexceptional. So despite his likely All-America status, he ranks only 17th here.

Where is Marreese Speights? Speights hardly played for Florida last season because the three guys in front of him all ended up in the NBA, so I couldn't include him in this sample. He rated extremely well in his limited minutes, though, and is continuing that trend this season.

While we're on the topic, two other players also stood out in fewer than 500 minutes (the minimum for the chart) -- Mississippi State's Jarvis Varnado and BYU's Jonathan Tavernari. Tavernari has kept it up this season and should start showing up on draft radars around the country, while Varnado has become a one-trick pony with nearly as many blocks (4.7 per game) as points (5.7).

What about Brook Lopez? His freshman year stats weren't overwhelming, especially once we subtracted the 7-footer penalty. (For those who didn't read my missive in June, players 7 feet and taller tend to underperform their college stats in the NBA, so unless they really kick butt in college they tend to disappoint as pros). He played extremely well in his first two games back this season, though, and if he keeps that up he'll move way up the list.

Twin brother Robin is regarded as a much lesser prospect, but his numbers were actually pretty close to Brook's last season, so that's another item to track. By the way, does anybody else want one of them to grow a Mohawk or something so we can figure out who's who on TV? And what is it with Stanford and twin big guys anyway? Wasn't the Collins clan enough?

What about Chris Douglas-Roberts? He's one of the best players on one of the country's best teams, but he rated very poorly in this exercise. I have two "red flags" in the stat profile -- a low rate of rebounds for a player's height, and fewer than 25 3-pointers made in a season.

Douglas-Roberts is the first "double red flag" I've encountered among major prospects. His 6.2 rebound rate last season was terrible for a 6-7 player, and he made only 19 triples all season. He's faring much better in both categories this season, and if he keeps it up he'll be well up the list by June.

What about the Kansas guys? Surprisingly, reserve forward Darrell Arthur was the only Jayhawk to crack the top 20. Mario Chalmers was just outside at No. 28, in a virtual dead heat with conference rival and fellow short guard D.J. Augustin of Texas (who was dinged severely for an obscenely low rebound rate), while the even shorter Sherron Collins was farther down.

Most surprising of all, shooting guard Brandon Rush was way farther down. Projected as a late first-rounder by most, Rush's name being so far down might surprise some. But he's 22 and didn't do anything particularly well last season other than shoot 3s, and he didn't shoot them in enough quantity to make up for numbers that, relative to other draft prospects, don't stand out.

What about DeVon Hardin? I know a lot of pro scouts like him, but his college numbers just aren't good. I'm not sure how else to put this. Hardin's rebound numbers are better this season, and that will improve his stock some, but he's still both raw and prone to turnovers.

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