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January Squad analysis

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CleveRocks

There go the Cavs!
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As some of you know I have been tracking the usage and performance of the five man units from month to month. I think this is a good indicator of what Mike Brown is trying to do with the team.

In January, Mike Brown played the core squad of Snow, Hughes, James, Gooden and Z together more than the entire rest of the season (244 minutes). The result was blah. That squad pretty much broke even and pretty much played mediocre defense (1.82 points per minute) and mediocre offense (1.86 points per minute).

What is different is that while the squads getting the most additional time in December were excellent defensive squads (1.6 ppm or less), the squads getting the most additional minutes in January were all offensive improvements at the expense of defensive performance. The best defensive squad to pick up minutes was Snow-Hughes-James-Varejao-Ilgauskas (1.73 ppm).

Gibsons main squad (Gibson-Jones-James-Marshall-Varejao) played worse defense in january (1.86 ppm vs 1.63 in December) but also played much better offense (2.1 vs 1.7 ppm). In addition gibson played with the starting core for the first time giving up a little on Defense (1.89ppm) and gaining a lot on offense (2.38 ppm) for the second best point differential of any squad with real time in january. The best point differential was Jones-Hughes-James-Gooden-Varejao who give up 1.79 ppm while earning 2.5 ppm on the offnsive side.

So what does this mean? I think Brown used January to try to get his core guys to work it out offensively, and to give Gibson enough minutes to evaluate his impact. At the end of the day it is a statistical no brainer. Gibson adds a third of a point per minute to our point differential on given squad as compared to Snow. Even though Snow makes us better defensively, it is not enough to make up the poor offensive production. Booby on the other hand was effective enough on defense that he has earned a start.

Another interesting side is that Pavlovic did not get near the opportunity Gibson did in January, but he got more than he has the rest of the season. The sample is not all that big, but for the first time this year, Brown played Sahsa 28 minutes with the core group (Snow,James,Gooden,Z). Interestingly the difference between him (1.82 ppm defense and 1.85 ppm offense) and larry are very small on both offense and defense although still in Larry's favor.

If Pavs could keep that up (which is a very big if) it would make sense that the front office would try to move Larry somewhere else. That will be a tough sell. I would not be surprised in Pavs got more minutes in the coming month....

Finally, There is no way in heck the Cavs are trading AV. He is on all but 2 of our top ten performing squads and the only other player to show up as or more frequently is Lebron James.
 

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