Sports Betting - Up Only

[natedagg]

Ok so this thread will last about a day, and I will be broke. I feel the need to jynx my heater.

I will most likely post only my winners, after the fact, and never my losers. NFA for any idiot tailing me now. In fact, mean regression in play here.

Methodology: listen to That Franchise Guy on YouTube, with the following algorithm:
If agree and win, I am genius
If agree and lose, that dude is an idiot.
If disagree, I am genius win or lose.

Bet sizes aren’t life changing, but I don’t bet $20. Nor do I bet 15 game parlays bc that’s stupid. Like you for reading.

Feeling strong about Texans/Falcons over 41. It’s 41.5 now. Stroud will be on the road but falcons defense (besides Bates) is weak. Bates killed Panthers’ Young, but Stroud is breaking out here.

The concern here is Riddler. Fair point, but he might turn the ball over on the wrong side of the field, and honestly they should just get it to Bijan at all times anyway. He looked really good on that Disney+ Toy Story glitchy rendition that I watched.

But real talk, this is also a fade on Texans D bc holding down the Pittsburgh Steelers doesn’t make you certified. Recency bias too (See: Dolphins, Miami).

41 is low for a dome. Both defense are mids, and we have 1 good offense and 1 “bad” offense playing at home after some terrible London game. I expect in the 50s, or to be roasted in this thread after a 17-9 Falcons victory.

Who you got *and why*?

 

[natedagg]

The Bears rekt me. Ok it wasn’t that much but I got that one so wrong. I had the Bears trying to lose out to get the #1 pick. They came out on fire, and pass pro looked good. They actually looked decent yesterday. I feel like DJ Moore in and Claypool out in addition by addition and negative subtraction.
Washington looked so terrible I couldn’t believe it. If I went to that game, I would ask for my money back. The secondary is bad but the bears were also pushing around their front 4. Unreal.
I am intrigued by the Chicago OC. Maybe it just took a bit to get everyone on the level. Maybe it was just Moore going nuts.

Anyway, teaser w under: L.
Washington straight up: L.

Just completely wrong here. Horrible picks. Oh well, at least not big bets.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

The Bears rekt me. Ok it wasn’t that much but I got that one so wrong. I had the Bears trying to lose out to get the #1 pick. They came out on fire, and pass pro looked good. They actually looked decent yesterday. I feel like DJ Moore in and Claypool out in addition by addition and negative subtraction.
Washington looked so terrible I couldn’t believe it. If I went to that game, I would ask for my money back. The secondary is bad but the bears were also pushing around their front 4. Unreal.
I am intrigued by the Chicago OC. Maybe it just took a bit to get everyone on the level. Maybe it was just Moore going nuts.

Anyway, teaser w under: L.
Washington straight up: L.

Just completely wrong here. Horrible picks. Oh well, at least not big bets.

Candidly, Washington owes you money

Just an unreasonably gutless performance in the first half

what is stunning is that they came out in half 2 and actually looked like they should have played the entire game. I really don’t know what point they were trying to prove by just refusing to cover and constantly going for gambles they weren’t athletic enough to make

 

[natedagg]

went down I-$75 on the in-game under 41.5 on Nebraska/Illinois college. In game betting is the truth. The trooth ferry, and I got off my hands son.
My falcons/Texans bet is now over 42, and with Texans +2, it implies 22-20 falcons. The bet that expresses my position best is Texans over 19.5 but it’s -165 so I have to pass.

Nobody else posting plays? Ye are welcome all.

 

[Benway]

Multiple parlays, my friend. Catch 'em with their pants down.

 

[Otsego Mar]

Let’s say Watson starts against the 49ers….

Do you take Browns +14?

 

[Biw]

Hit this with a $10 bonus bet I had. Up $350 on the year.

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

Heard the Browns are only getting 5.5 this wknd against the Niners. Has there ever been a more sure winner?

 

[ssn774]

Anyone win big today by betting on the Browns to win straight up?

If yes, then you deserve the big pay-off!