Week 8: Browns @ Seahawks 4PM

[DCTribefan]

Hes definitely an XFL guy but it's a check down. Anyone over 6ft whose throw a fb has a 50% chance of hitting it.

Um, Baker Mayfield would like a word.

 

[Soar]

I know it's hard to quantify, but I'm not sure the Seahawks slice us up on that drive if not for the interception hyping them up.

If we don't get the first down running it, we pin them down at the very least 20 yards farther back than they got the ball after the pick. That's more plays for our defense to make a play and the Seahawks haven't had the emotional boost of the interception.

Like I said, it's hard to quantify that type of stuff, just wanted to hit it from that angle.

I agree. Sports are so often a momentum based game. Basketball is probably the most extreme example... you have a player get a big block, dunk, or deep 3 and suddenly you have the team hustling around on defense and it sparks a 8-10 point run.

Football can work that way as well. Especially late in the game, it feels like every play is that much more consequential.

It doesn't excuse the defense just letting them march down the field but when you have premier athletes on both sides of the ball.... so much of it can come down to who wants it more and a lot of that can come from emotional or dramatic plays.

It's all an unknown but I don't think the Seahawks are as fired up to take the field pinned on their own 15 as an example.

 

[Benway]

Poorly thrown, but as luck would have it, fatally poor throw.

 

[Deezus]

passing came with a higher statistical probability of a turnover.

This x100!!!

You just don’t put the ball in PJ’s hands there. It is and was a terrible descision.

Hell of a gameplan by the coaches otherwise… But people need to stop pretending like counting on PJ to throw in that situation wasn’t stupid.

 

[Benway]

This x100!!!

You just don’t put the ball in PJ’s hands there. It is and was a terrible descision.

Hell of a gameplan by the coaches otherwise… But people need to stop pretending like counting on PJ to throw in that situation wasn’t stupid.

Turnover = fatality.

I was thinking this.

 

[MirORich]

This x100!!!

You just don’t put the ball in PJ’s hands there. It is and was a terrible descision.

Hell of a gameplan by the coaches otherwise… But people need to stop pretending like counting on PJ to throw in that situation wasn’t stupid.

The stat that says pass plays on 3 and 3 are statistically much more likely to result in a first down than a run play sfe based on the accumulated stats of ALL teams and ALL QBs, meaning the great QBs, the really good QBs, the good QBs, the above average QBs, the average QBs and the slightly below average QBs

I wonder what that rate if success looks like if it’s based on results accumulated from just bottom 5 in the league QBs.

I’d guess the success rate is lower and the turnover rate higher than the rates based on all QBs performing a passing drop back in 3rd and 3

Water under the bridge at this point but just listing to the success rate of pass plays on 3rd and 3 leaguewide historically doesn’t cover the full story and context of our game today

 

[CBBI]

The stat that says pass plays on 3 and 3 are statistically much more likely to result in a first down than a run play sfe based on the accumulated stats of ALL teams and ALL QBs, meaning the great QBs, the really good QBs, the good QBs, the above average QBs, the average QBs and the slightly below average QBs

I wonder what that rate if success looks like if it’s based on results accumulated from just bottom 5 in the league QBs.

I’d guess the success rate is lower and the turnover rate higher than the rates based on all QBs performing a passing drop back in 3rd and 3

Water under the bridge at this point but just listing to the success rate of pass plays on 3rd and 3 leaguewide historically doesn’t cover the full story and context of our game today

I want to immediately caveat this by stressing that this sample size is small, but coming into the game PJ Walker had never turned the ball over or been sacked in his career on a pass attempt on third down and three yards to gain or less.

In fact, of all the down and distance splits that Pro Football Reference tracks, Walker’s highest career passer rating coming into the game was on passes attempted on 3rd down and 3 or less to gain.

And then yesterday he threw two interceptions, one on 3rd and 2 and one on 3rd and 3. Just unfortunate luck.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

First time in Seattle.

It was a nice city to visit. We stayed along the water and just did the main touristy things. Hit the piers, went up the Needle, and visited Pike Place Market. Seattle is much hillier than I imagined. My legs feel it. The weather was perfect. It was 2 days of cloudless skies and locals pointed out to us that rarely happens. Thanks to @DJTJ for the recommendation to get the chowder which was better than the chowder we had in Boston (recency bias?).

For the game, the stadiums there were really nice. Football and baseball right next to each other. The tailgating setup was maybe the worst I'd ever seen though. There were a few street vendors nearby but nothing else in the streets or parking lots next to the stadium. They did have the baseball stadium open for some sort of pregame party. There was also an indoor area on the way in to the game where there were a lot of people hanging out, but there was nothing right next to the stadium. My friends and I started to walk around to try to find something a little further away from the stadium. We asked a few cops to direct us to where we could drink some beers, and they said there was nothing close. They were pretty much, "We don't give a shit if you sit somewhere and drink" but did point out some areas that might be good. We walked where the first cop pointed but saw nothing. Another cop pointed in another direction, so we walked that way. Still nothing. We thought they were fucking with us. We met a little silver-haired grandma type on the walk, and after small talk, she asked if we wanted to go to her tailgate. So we walked with Linda for what felt like forever (and further away from the stadium) until we hit her lot. They gave us some homemade miso soup then some delicious chicken fried rice from the blackstone. I was not shy about partaking. She topped it off with some homemade cookies. To top it off, she was sitting in our section too albeit in the front row and we were row Z.

For the game, the place was loud. Not sure if it was loud enough to pump up their 12th Man thing or not. Bill Nye the Science Guy raised their flag at the start. I think that was the key to them winning. The fans were nice enough. The most obnoxious people there were other Browns fans. It was a better gameday experience than CBS. Montell Jordan did a little halftime show.

As we were leaving dejectedly, we at least got a free spicy bratwurst from a vendor who was getting rid of his excess supply. That was a nice surprise. The hills were not fun walking back to the hotel.

All in all, a fun weekend trip despite the loss.

^^^me eating my third bowl of fried rice.

 

[DJTJ]

First time in Seattle.

It was a nice city to visit. We stayed along the water and just did the main touristy things. Hit the piers, went up the Needle, and visited Pike Place Market. Seattle is much hillier than I imagined. My legs feel it. The weather was perfect. It was 2 days of cloudless skies and locals pointed out to us that rarely happens. Thanks to @DJTJ for the recommendation to get the chowder which was better than the chowder we had in Boston (recency bias?).

For the game, the stadiums there were really nice. Football and baseball right next to each other. The tailgating setup was maybe the worst I'd ever seen though. There were a few street vendors nearby but nothing else in the streets or parking lots next to the stadium. They did have the baseball stadium open for some sort of pregame party. There was also an indoor area on the way in to the game where there were a lot of people hanging out, but there was nothing right next to the stadium. My friends and I started to walk around to try to find something a little further away from the stadium. We asked a few cops to direct us to where we could drink some beers, and they said there was nothing close. They were pretty much, "We don't give a shit if you sit somewhere and drink" but did point out some areas that might be good. We walked where the first cop pointed but saw nothing. Another cop pointed in another direction, so we walked that way. Still nothing. We thought they were fucking with us. We met a little silver-haired grandma type on the walk, and after small talk, she asked if we wanted to go to her tailgate. So we walked with Linda for what felt like forever (and further away from the stadium) until we hit her lot. They gave us some homemade miso soup then some delicious chicken fried rice from the blackstone. I was not shy about partaking. She topped it off with some homemade cookies. To top it off, she was sitting in our section too albeit in the front row and we were row Z.

For the game, the place was loud. Not sure if it was loud enough to pump up their 12th Man thing or not. Bill Nye the Science Guy raised their flag at the start. I think that was the key to them winning. The fans were nice enough. The most obnoxious people there were other Browns fans. It was a better gameday experience than CBS. Montell Jordan did a little halftime show.

As we were leaving dejectedly, we at least got a free spicy bratwurst from a vendor who was getting rid of his excess supply. That was a nice surprise. The hills were not fun walking back to the hotel.

All in all, a fun weekend trip despite the loss.

^^^me eating my third bowl of fried rice.

Definitely not recency bias.

Best chowder. What chowder dreams are made of.