What needs to improve

[Wham with the Right Hand]

With 70% of the regular season in the books and the All-Star break upon us, I thought I’d dig up a few numbers to see what the Cavs are doing well and where they need to improve before the playoffs start after only 24 more games.

Overall the Cavs are 7th in average point margin and 8th in winning percentage. Breaking it down by quarters, the Cavs are 8th best in 1st quarter margin, 8th in 2nd quarter margin, 6th in 3rd quarter margin, and 21st in 4th quarter margin. The Cavs rank 5th in scoring margin after three quarters. IOW, the Cavs are the 5th best team in the NBA in quarters 1-3 and the 21st in the 4th quarter. JBB needs to figure out what is going on with that.

Does he need to make some changes in his personnel groupings in the 4th quarter? I think he generally starts out with Garland on the bench. Do the Cavs get off to a bad start with Garland down and then tighten up when the opponent gets on a roll and the Cavs’ lead starts disappearing?

Maybe sit Garland down with 3-4 minutes left in the 3rd and start him in the 4th quarter, then give him a short rest midway?

Defensively the Cavs give up the same number of points in each quarter: 26.0, 26.0, 25.1, and 25.4. Offensively the Cavs are better in the first half: 27.9, 27.3, 26.5, and 24.9. It’s not bad; the Cavs are getting outscored in the 4th quarter by only 0.5 points. But they could be better.

Offensively the Cavs rank 18th in efficiency, which is points per possession. The Cavs play at the slowest pace in the league, ranking last in field goal attempts per game. Another factor is the Cavs rank 29th in turnovers per possession, which limits the number of shots.

The Cavs rank 11th in points in the paint and 7th in shooting percentage at the rim. There’s nothing wrong with their inside game. They are 15th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall they are 9th in effective field goal percentage, so you’d think they’d be higher than 18th in efficiency. But the high turnover rate and the low free throw shooting percentage (24th) drag down the scoring.

The Cavs are 16th in free throw attempts per game but 24th in free throws made.

The Cavs pass the ball (7th in assists per possession), hit their shots (9th in effective field goal percentage), and crash the glass (9th in offensive rebound percentage). Considering they are in the top 10 in assists, field goal shooting, and offensive rebounding you’d expect them to easily be in the top 10 in scoring. But the turnovers and bad free throw shooting drag them down to 18th.

Garland, Okoro, and Rondo are the biggest offenders when it comes to turnovers, but Allen and Stevens are below average.

Defensively the Cavs rank 4th in efficiency and 4th in effective field goal percentage. They’re 3rd in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage. They’re 11th in preventing points in the paint. The one statistic where they lead the NBA is opponent free throws per possession. The Cavs are the best at not fouling.

The only area where the Cavs are below average defensively is block percentage where they rank 24th. I expected them to be much higher but they only have two regular players who are above average for their positions (Allen, Mobley) and several who are well below average (Love, Wade, Cedi, Garland). All in all, there’s nothing wrong with the defense.

So my take is that over the next 24 games the biggest task for the Cavs as a team is to reduce turnovers. Considering they rank 9th in effective field goal percentage they should be scoring more than they are, but all those turnovers are not only preventing shots but they frequently result in uncontested fast break buckets.

One reason the Cavs have a lot of turnovers (almost 15 per game) is they pass the ball (7th in assist rate). Teams that do a lot of isolation one-on-one and who fire up a lot of 3’s tend not to turn the ball over as much. Also the Cavs like to get the ball to their bigs near the rim, which results in strips when defenses collapse and double- or triple-team the ball before our big can get the shot up.

Still, we need to do better than 29th in turnovers.

Free throw shooting is another area that could use improvement. The Cavs have lost a couple of games where they missed 10 or more free throws and lost by less than 5 points. I’d hate to see that happen in the playoffs.

The defense is great, but the offense is a little below average. The task over the rest of the season is to reduce turnovers, improve the free throw shooting, and figure out how to best utilize Caris LeVert. At the moment it’s not working. Through his first four games the Cavs have been an incredible 17.9 points per 100 possessions WORSE when LeVert is in the game. He’s shooting 39% overall and 28% on 3’s. Clearly he’s not comfortable with his new team. JBB needs to figure out what combination of players he works best with and get him a lot of reps with that group before the playoffs start.

 

[Cavatt]

Turnovers, but just mistakes in general. Cavs make to many mistakes and it's going to cost them in big games.

 

[foucault87]

Need more Nembhard and less Pagnos

 

[2 For The Brew]

Not surprising we commit a lot of turnovers with such a young team. Bringing Lauri back and fully integrating Vert into the rotation will mean more mistakes in the short run. It will get better - over time.

 

[Jake]

We need someone who can drain those effortless all net 3's with a degree of consistency. Kind of like most teams seem to have. That guy won't be Wade or Windler which has become clear by now. And Caris ain't that guy either.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Not surprising we commit a lot of turnovers with such a young team. Bringing Lauri back and fully integrating Vert into the rotation will mean more mistakes in the short run. It will get better - over time.

Lauri ranks in the 95th percentile among NBA bigs in turnover rate. He commits fewer turnovers than any Cavs' player with respect to his position. He's averaging 0.8 turnovers per 30 minutes.

LeVert is in the 84th percentile among wings in turnover percentage. Part of that is because he doesn't pass the ball (just kidding). Actually, a lot of the time they just isolate him and let him take the shot, or if he doesn't like the matchup he'll just give the ball back to the point guard.

We shouldn't have a lot of turnovers when Markkanen and LeVert are on the floor together.

 

[jjvors]

1. Turnovers come from:
a. Freelancing, improvising, rather than running play. Run set plays for Mobley, Allen, Markkanen, LeVert
b. turnovers come from dribbling too much. No more than 2-3 dribbles, then a pass or a shot. Exception: Rondo and Garland can dribble to get to spots.
c. turnovers come when our bigs get the ball in the lane and bring the ball down. Don't do that. If you've got the ball in the lane shoot it.

2. LeVert can:
a. run pick and roll with our bigs
b. catch and shoot
c. slash and cut and move off ball
d. set picks for Garland
e. post up smaller guards

LeVert should not:
a. Probe the defense like Garland. Instead, move and pass.
b. Shoot off the dribble, unless he's in the lane.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

We need someone who can drain those effortless all net 3's with a degree of consistency. Kind of like most teams seem to have. That guy won't be Wade or Windler which has become clear by now. And Caris ain't that guy either.

I'm fine with all net 3's and also 3's that hit the rim on the way down. Even 3's that hit the rim, the glass, and the rim three more times. As long as the ball ends up in the net.

 

[PIP]

Personally I think just a reset in defensive mindset.

You can’t control whether or not the shots are gonna fall. So saying to shoot better or whatever is literally just talk & hope.

But…… You can control the effort you give and the energy you play with — more times than not if that is there you’re gonna still be in most if not all of these games…

Overall defensive numbers look great but just on eye test alone it appeared the Cavs defense has dip quite a bit— especially in the 1st quarter..

Play to your strengths, defend, rebound, play with energy, and let Garland run the show…

I’d love to see LeVert find his groove and would enjoy if his playmaking became more prominent— I know he’s a scorer, but man with the way he can get into the paint he could really be a threat…

 

[jjvors]

Lauri ranks in the 95th percentile among NBA bigs in turnover rate. He commits fewer turnovers than any Cavs' player with respect to his position. He's averaging 0.8 turnovers per 30 minutes.

LeVert is in the 84th percentile among wings in turnover percentage. Part of that is because he doesn't pass the ball (just kidding). Actually, a lot of the time they just isolate him and let him take the shot, or if he doesn't like the matchup he'll just give the ball back to the point guard.

We shouldn't have a lot of turnovers when Markkanen and LeVert are on the floor together.

Something I noticed about Markkanen is his defensive rebounding is good. His backside defense is good. Getting those back will help.

 

[dms]

With 70% of the regular season in the books and the All-Star break upon us, I thought I’d dig up a few numbers to see what the Cavs are doing well and where they need to improve before the playoffs start after only 24 more games.

Overall the Cavs are 7th in average point margin and 8th in winning percentage. Breaking it down by quarters, the Cavs are 8th best in 1st quarter margin, 8th in 2nd quarter margin, 6th in 3rd quarter margin, and 21st in 4th quarter margin. The Cavs rank 5th in scoring margin after three quarters. IOW, the Cavs are the 5th best team in the NBA in quarters 1-3 and the 21st in the 4th quarter. JBB needs to figure out what is going on with that.

Does he need to make some changes in his personnel groupings in the 4th quarter? I think he generally starts out with Garland on the bench. Do the Cavs get off to a bad start with Garland down and then tighten up when the opponent gets on a roll and the Cavs’ lead starts disappearing?

Maybe sit Garland down with 3-4 minutes left in the 3rd and start him in the 4th quarter, then give him a short rest midway?

I think your premise that the Cavs have issues in the 4th quarter is incorrect. They've actually been a very good 4th quarter team and their stats are being badly skewed by one game in particular and a couple others. The Golden State game where we led most of the way and they beat us by 28 in the 4th and held us to 8 points really distorts our 4th quarter numbers. The only other games that they really struggled in the 4th was against NO when Rubio went down and the game against Detroit. We also had some blowout wins early in the season where we got badly out scored in the 4th because it was garbage time and we had a huge lead.
The problem with your Garland suggestion is that it ignores the reality that whenever Garland is off the court we will struggle. If you let him start the 4th and sit the last 3 or 4 of the 3rd, then we will struggle the last 3 or 4 of the 3rd. We haven't had an issue closing out games, in fact we have the 7th best record in the league in close games. If anything, especially in the past month, our issue has been the 1st quarter where we ten to get off to a slow start.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think your premise that the Cavs have issues in the 4th quarter is incorrect. They've actually been a very good 4th quarter team and their stats are being badly skewed by one game in particular and a couple others. The Golden State game where we led most of the way and they beat us by 28 in the 4th and held us to 8 points really distorts our 4th quarter numbers. The only other games that they really struggled in the 4th was against NO when Rubio went down and the game against Detroit. We also had some blowout wins early in the season where we got badly out scored in the 4th because it was garbage time and we had a huge lead.
The problem with your Garland suggestion is that it ignores the reality that whenever Garland is off the court we will struggle. If you let him start the 4th and sit the last 3 or 4 of the 3rd, then we will struggle the last 3 or 4 of the 3rd. We haven't had an issue closing out games, in fact we have the 7th best record in the league in close games. If anything, especially in the past month, our issue has been the 1st quarter where we ten to get off to a slow start.

I agree that 4th quarter stats are not too reliable because it's the only quarter where in some cases the game has already been decided when the quarter starts or gets decided at some point during the quarter.

It's true the Cavs were outscored by 28 in the 4th quarter against Golden State, which accounts for 0.5 points per game. Take away that game and the Cavs are dead even in 4th quarter point differential for the season.

It's also true the Cavs' rank 7th in winning percentage in "close" games. My only question is how many of those games did the Cavs have a big lead after three quarters and ended up being close.

On average the Cavs have a bigger lead after three quarters than all but four other teams. Yet they rank 21st in 4th quarter margin. But we're only talking about a couple of points so I have to agree that they don't have a 4th quarter problem. If I have time I'll take a game-by-game look at the season and see how many games they lost after leading after three quarters.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Think they need to be able to trot out the same line-up consistently - preferably one with enough scoring in it. Injuries have been a big factors in keeping that from happening. I still hope they can get another shooter, through a buy-out.

If they can run the Garland-LeVert-Markk-Mobley-Allen line-up out there for major minutes, and get regular contributions from Love, Okoro, Cedi, Wade, and Rondo, in limited minutes, they can start to get back in a flow.

The team gets in trouble when bench guys play too many minutes and when JBB tries out line-ups with absolutely no scoring.

 

[Cavatt]

I think there is a 4th quarter prob. Some guys are good at hitting shots, but not so many are good at getting shots.

When defender clamps down, need more creators