With Twins' closer Nathan ailing, Indians may be more relieved to keep Kerry Wood: Analysis
By Paul Hoynes, The Plain Dealer
March 10, 2010, 10:44PM
GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- Closer Kerry Wood isn't going anywhere. The Indians may be more intent on keeping him today than they were when spring training opened Feb. 20.
Just because the Twins have apparently lost closer Joe Nathan for a significant part of the season with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, it doesn't mean the Indians are rushing to package Wood and send him to Minneapolis. The opposite is probably a truer line of reasoning.
Joe Nathan could face season-ending surgery within the next couple of weeks, which would seriously damage the prospects of a Twins organization hoping for a big push in the AL Central in their new ballpark. Nathan has been a big part of the Twins winning three AL Central titles in the last six years. He's converted 91 percent of his saves (246-for-271) since arriving from San Francisco before the 2004 season. The Twins' bullpen has had the lowest ERA in the big leagues at 3.60 during his stay as closer.
Losing him, perhaps for the rest of the season if Tommy John surgery is needed, is the kind of blow that a team, even one built for great things as the Twins have been this year, will have a hard time deflecting.
The Twins have no proven replacement for Nathan. A championship-caliber team without a closer is a team asking to get its heart broken. Losing games late on a consistent basis ruins teams, no matter how good or bad they are.
So at this moment, the race in the AL Central has tightened. The Twins have been weakened, which means the Indians' chances of contending have improved. They're still a long shot. They have to be with question marks Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson as their top three starters, but they have drawn closer.
So GM Mark Shapiro would be wise to keep Wood. Let the season's first couple of months unfold to see just what kind of team he has under manager Manny Acta. The Indians play 26 of their first 50 games against division foes. They play the White Sox eight times and the Twins and Tigers six times each. Shapiro, in his last year as general manager, should have a good idea where the Indians stand by then.
The Indians entered spring training with the idea of opening the year with Wood. They owe him $10.5 million, an obscene contract on a team cutting payroll, but the thinking was that if Wood was going to rebound from an inconsistent 2009, why shouldn't it be for the Indians? At least until the All-Star break.
If the Indians are out of contention by then, the work of trading Wood would be easier. When teams inquired about him over the winter, they wanted the Indians to absorb most of his 2010 salary. It didn't make sense then and it still doesn't today.
By the end of July or August, the Indians will have paid Wood at least 50 percent of his contract. That should make him more attractive to a contender and the Indians might be able to get a higher return depending on how badly Wood was needed.
The vesting option on Wood's contract, which guarantees him $11 million for 2011 should he finish 55 games this year, could be troublesome in any deal, but a contender in need of closer beyond 2010 may consider that the price of doing business, especially if Wood is healthy and pitching well.
Should the Indians, by some stroke of good fortune, be in contention in late July or August, the temptation would be strong to keep Wood. It probably wouldn't happen. Over the last two years, ownership has ordered the trades of players with far bigger names and closer ties to Cleveland. Still, who knows what kind of dynamics would be at work in such a situation?
As the Indians found out in 2008, after winning 96 games in 2007, injuries can end a season before it begins. Closer Joe Borowski, catcher Victor Martinez, DH Travis Hafner and Westbrook entered the season injured and broke down. It set in motion a two-year fire sale that staggered this team.
The Twins broke from tradition this winter. They did everything the Indians didn't do to excite their fans because they're moving into a Target Field, a new outdoor ballpark. Ownership, which normally squeezes every penny out of every dollar, pushed the payroll from $65 million to $96 million.
They offered Carl Pavano arbitration and paid him $7 million. Free agents Orlando Hudson ($5 million) and Jim Thome ($1.5 million) were signed. They're still negotiating a multiyear deal with hometown hero and AL MVP, Joe Mauer.
Then the closer goes and gets hurt and everything changes.
