2013 NBA Draft

[pr26]

A 3rd guard with our top pick in the last 3 years? Um...

BPA at any position where you don't have a sure fire franchise player. You can always trade your way out of a logjam.

[Lottery God]

BPA at any position where you don't have a sure fire franchise player. You can always trade your way out of a logjam.

Question: If there was another Kyrie Irving-level PG in this draft, would you take him?

[Jack Brickman]

Question: If there was another Kyrie Irving-level PG in this draft, would you take him?

Nope. Would trade the pick to a team right below us for their pick and assets.

[Los216]

I Want McLemore. We can move Dion to the 6th man role where he played in college and he is better suited. I like Dion but he is perfect for a 6th man role. Dion reminds me of Ben Gordon when he was with the Bulls and he could get you at least 15ppg and sometimes go off for 30. Now with McLemore we would have a legit pure SG with huge upside and he fits better with Kyrie than Dion does. McLemore has a Paul Pierce feel to his game. To me drafting McLemore and moving Dion to the bench would give the Cavs one of the best 3 man guard rotations in the league. It also means that we could look for a SF who has a defensive mindset but is better offensively than Gee. Think a Lou Deng type of player. Getting that type of SF move Gee to the bench where he is better suited as well. That way we could get the offensive minded Center to pair with TT because TT is all about Defense and Rebounding. Bottom line is because of TT style of play we need a very offensive minded Center and a defensive minded SF who can score when needed.

[KB]

BPA at any position where you don't have a sure fire franchise player. You can always trade your way out of a logjam.

Problem with that thinking imo is that by attempting to trade your way out of a log jam is that you almost never get value out of the assets imo

[MGMT]

So wait do people think we shouldn't take a shooting guard because of Dion?

I'm not one to write dudes off after a season but Shabazz looks like a potential 25 ppg guy - at a good rate because of how good his jumper is already and he busts his ass off the ball. I don't see how you could pass on him.

[pr26]

Question: If there was another Kyrie Irving-level PG in this draft, would you take him?

No, because we already have a franchise PG. Dion? I love the kids potential, but we're not sure he's a franchise 2 guard at all. If a SG is the BPA, you take him. Is a PF the BPA? You take him.

If a pg was the CLEAR BPA at our spot? Trade down.

[BimboColesHair]

It's been a little over a month, but my feelings on the draft are still the same. Give me one of the top flight bigs and Otto Porter and I'll be very satisfied. A big back-up PG who can play defense and initiate offense and a project big in the 2nd (Patric Young or Lucas Nogueira) would be icing on the cake.

[Shack]

Not sure if I posted this on this forum yet, but you guys should bookmark this site http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=965 He has an advanced metrics/statguy system, favoring players with high non volume scoring stats (reb, blk, stl, ast, TS%, etc.) that ranked Tristan Thompson as the #2 prospect in 2011 and Dion Waiters as the #2 prospect in 2012. So there's a great chance that whatever he's using is very similar to the Cavs' metrics. I predicted the Cavs would take Waiters and not Barnes before last year's draft based on that blog, as not only did he love Waiters but was ripping Barnes apart (as Barnes statistically was ALL volume scoring with nothing standing out in reb, blk, stl, ast, or TS%). His top 10 prospects:

Nerlens Noel
Michael Carter-Williams
Kyle Anderson
Alex Len
Otto Porter
Anthony Bennett
Willie Cauley-Stein
Cody Zeller
Tony Mitchell
Steven Adams

He seems to hate Shabazz, putting him in the Overhyped section with Isaiah Austin, James Michael McAdoo, Alex Poythress, Mason Plumlee. Based on this I would say it's unlikely the Cavs take Shabazz. The Cavs and this guy's stats seem to care about everything except volume scoring, which is Shabazz's biggest calling card. I would say Nerlens and MCW are the most likely players to top the Cavs board not only because of this guy's rankings, but because it's easy to see that statistically they are super versions of Thompson and Waiters. Thompson likely made his bread in the metrics, by his excellent block rate for a big (3.1 per 40 minutes), to go along with 10.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals and 1.6 assists. Noel per 40 minutes is averaging 4.7 blocks. 3.5 stls, 12.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists, which is a different animal. The MCW-Waiters comparison is even more direct because of Syracuse. The Cavs metrics likely loved Waiters' 3.0 stls and 4.2 asts per 40 minutes for a guard, to go along with 3.8 rebounds and 0.5 blocks. MCW per 40 minutes is putting up 12.0 assists, 3.8 steals, 6.1 rebounds and 0.8 blocks. So it's almost a shoo-in that MCW looks better with the Cavs metrics than Waiters did, who obviously ranked quite well. Len also seems like a very possible pick, as he is averaging an excellent 3.6 blocks and 13.2 rebounds per 40 minutes for a center. As for Anderson it seems like he would be a likely choice with one of your later picks. He is averaging a pretty freakish 12.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes for a perimeter player. And he'd obviously fit your roster needs perfectly at SF. Based on the hoopsanalyst blog and the style of the last two draft picks by the Cavs, I would personally bet that the Cavs have Anderson ranked higher on their board than Shabazz!

[Len]

Where are those blocks now Tristan? Tristan doesn't even jump anymore. He does draw less fouls because of it, but he literally doesn't jump anymore. (1 goaltending doesnt count)

[Jack Brickman]

Shack, one thing to keep in mind is that UCLA's system basically always makes guys look worse than they are. Westbrook was poorly-rated by advanced metrics as well. It's just the system they run.

[MVP_Eric_10]

I'm pulling for the Cavs to select Alex Len, and using the LAL (hoping they make the playoffs) trade up and nab Otto Porter. I just feel Len and Porter really addresses our needs the most. We need a big who can stretch the floor and we need a wing who doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. Porter has really improved this year, shooting 43% from deep. He's that do-it-all type forward. Moving Gee back to the bench will provide us with more depth and a much needed spark off the bench.

I to, think Shabazz is a bit overrated, but Jack brought up a solid point. UCLA does run a unique system, Westbrook was a prime example. He didn't have any problem translating to the NBA style of play.

[CavsinFL]

Not sure if I posted this on this forum yet, but you guys should bookmark this site http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=965 He has an advanced metrics/statguy system, favoring players with high non volume scoring stats (reb, blk, stl, ast, TS%, etc.) that ranked Tristan Thompson as the #2 prospect in 2011 and Dion Waiters as the #2 prospect in 2012. So there's a great chance that whatever he's using is very similar to the Cavs' metrics. I predicted the Cavs would take Waiters and not Barnes before last year's draft based on that blog, as not only did he love Waiters but was ripping Barnes apart (as Barnes statistically was ALL volume scoring with nothing standing out in reb, blk, stl, ast, or TS%). His top 10 prospects:

Nerlens Noel
Michael Carter-Williams
Kyle Anderson
Alex Len
Otto Porter
Anthony Bennett
Willie Cauley-Stein
Cody Zeller
Tony Mitchell
Steven Adams

He seems to hate Shabazz, putting him in the Overhyped section with Isaiah Austin, James Michael McAdoo, Alex Poythress, Mason Plumlee. Based on this I would say it's unlikely the Cavs take Shabazz. The Cavs and this guy's stats seem to care about everything except volume scoring, which is Shabazz's biggest calling card. I would say Nerlens and MCW are the most likely players to top the Cavs board not only because of this guy's rankings, but because it's easy to see that statistically they are super versions of Thompson and Waiters. Thompson likely made his bread in the metrics, by his excellent block rate for a big (3.1 per 40 minutes), to go along with 10.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals and 1.6 assists. Noel per 40 minutes is averaging 4.7 blocks. 3.5 stls, 12.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists, which is a different animal. The MCW-Waiters comparison is even more direct because of Syracuse. The Cavs metrics likely loved Waiters' 3.0 stls and 4.2 asts per 40 minutes for a guard, to go along with 3.8 rebounds and 0.5 blocks. MCW per 40 minutes is putting up 12.0 assists, 3.8 steals, 6.1 rebounds and 0.8 blocks. So it's almost a shoo-in that MCW looks better with the Cavs metrics than Waiters did, who obviously ranked quite well. Len also seems like a very possible pick, as he is averaging an excellent 3.6 blocks and 13.2 rebounds per 40 minutes for a center. As for Anderson it seems like he would be a likely choice with one of your later picks. He is averaging a pretty freakish 12.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes for a perimeter player. And he'd obviously fit your roster needs perfectly at SF. Based on the hoopsanalyst blog and the style of the last two draft picks by the Cavs, I would personally bet that the Cavs have Anderson ranked higher on their board than Shabazz!

This is a good post, thanks for the info. However, as you mentioned, this metric does not favor volume scorers. In my opinion there is a big difference between a volume scorer and a chucker. Right now, these metrics got us Dion who is definitely playing the role of a chucker and needs a lot of shots to score. Good examples are players who average over 20 ppg but shoot in the lower 40s FG%. If metrics avoid high volume SHOOTERS then great. But I'll take my chances with a high volume SCORER in Shabazz when he's shooting 49% from the floor AND on 3s. Nothing wrong with volume when you make them

[Walter White]

I will admit that I am biased because I am a KU fan but, MCLEMORE FTW.

[randymoss1881]

Shack, one thing to keep in mind is that UCLA's system basically always makes guys look worse than they are. Westbrook was poorly-rated by advanced metrics as well. It's just the system they run.

Ya this is true for holiday and collison too. But watching him play this year i was shocked by him being low he gets his points from cutting and moving