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Thread: Dion Waiters

  1. #3691
    So we come to it at last Chris's Avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Rap Soda View Post
    It works for my analogy 9 out of 10 times.
    It works for your analogy 10 times out of 10.

    Someone's boss being "more knowledgeable" than them works about 3 times out of 10.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Someone's boss being "more knowledgeable" than them works about 3 times out of 10.
    Got it.

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  4. #3693
    So we come to it at last Chris's Avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Rap Soda View Post
    Got it.
    Sorry for my assault on your oversimplification of the working world. I have offended you, apparently. What kind of fucker has never seen Horrible Bosses, anyway?
    Last edited by Chris; 11-13-2012 at 11:51 AM.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Sorry for my assault on your oversimplification of the working world. I have offended you, apparently. What kind of fucker has never seen Horrible Bosses, anyway?
    No, not offended at all. Just pointing out that one person's radical view doesn't change a fact that our society (and the world's) has adhered to. Seems like I've offended you as you refer to me as a "fucker". Although I have seen Horrible Bosses. Not trying to bicker, although that seems to be where we've gone. I know for a fact that this isn't a personal issue as I don't think we have had issues in the past. Just didn't appreciate my point being negated by your personal theory.

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  7. #3695
    So we come to it at last Chris's Avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Rap Soda View Post
    No, not offended at all. Just pointing out that one person's radical view doesn't change a fact that our society (and the world's) has adhered to. Seems like I've offended you as you refer to me as a "fucker". Although I have seen Horrible Bosses. Not trying to bicker, although that seems to be where we've gone. I know for a fact that this isn't a personal issue as I don't think we have had issues in the past. Just didn't appreciate my point being negated by your personal theory.
    Pretty sure my Horrible Bosses comment was not meant to be taken seriously. As if that film is a real indicator of the actual working world.

    My original point was a side comment, one I think a lot of people would agree with actually in a lot of different work environments; ie, someone being your boss does not equal them being more competent or more knowledgeable. I'd be shocked if you hadn't been in multiple situations where this was not the case. To call this view "Radical" is an absurdity. At the end of the day, though, it wasn't even meant to discredit your analogy, seeing as I added a simple statement saying that your point still stood.

    This was lost on you and I still ended up looking like the bad guy, unsurprisingly. Context doesn't flow too well on forums is the old adage, I guess.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Pretty sure my Horrible Bosses comment was not meant to be taken seriously. As if that film is a real indicator of the actual working world.

    My original point was a side comment, one I think a lot of people would agree with actually in a lot of different work environments; ie, someone being your boss does not equal them being more competent or more knowledgeable. I'd be shocked if you hadn't been in multiple situations where this was not the case. To call this view "Radical" is an absurdity. At the end of the day, though, it wasn't even meant to discredit your analogy, seeing as I added a simple statement saying that your point still stood.

    This was lost on you and I still ended up looking like the bad guy, unsurprisingly. Context doesn't flow too well on forums is the old adage, I guess.
    Eh, I missed the Horrible Bosses ref. End of it.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Part 2: A Numerical Take on Dion’s First Two Weeks

    November 13th, 2012 by Kevin Hetrick
    Based on data available at hoopdata.com, through November 12 games, there are 62 shooting guards averaging ten or more minutes per game. Of those, Dion:
    Making 50% at the rim against OKC


    • Takes the thirteenth most shots at the rim per forty minutes (4.5). Of all shooting guards who have made more than one such shot, he has been assisted on the fourth lowest percentage. He gets the ball to the basket. Unfortunately though, he converts a poor 50%, approximately 15% below NBA average this season. Kyrie struggled similarly early last season, and that turned out allright, so hopefully this tide also shifts for Waiters.
    • He jacks the nineteenth highest number of long-twos per forty (4.3), while nailing a robust 48%. This is 10% higher than current league average for SGs. These are the least efficient shots in the game, and ideally Dion learns this and quits showing a propensity for them.
    • From three, he hoists frequently (6.5 per 40, 19th for SGs), and makes them at a ridiculous rate of 53%.
    • He is only shooting 0.18 free throws per field goal attempt. This is below average for a shooting guard. His foul shooting of 60% sits well under the 75% from his two collegiate seasons.

    Clearly the shooting from deep is unsustainable, but if everything else also ‘normalizes’, how does his production look for the first seven games? Well…

    • For a guy attacking the basket reasonably often, I will assume his ability to draw fouls eventually regresses to the league-mean. If he also drained three-quarters of his freebies; that adds six points through his first seven games.
    • If his shooting at the rim was only slightly below league average for an SG (59% compared to 65%), he makes two more field goals. So, four more points.
    • If his shooting on long twos reduced to 43% (compared to 38% average), he only loses one bucket over the first two weeks.
    • The huge aberration is the three point shooting. If his shooting from deep approached his collegiate level of 37%, he makes five less to date, or a 15-point reduction.

    By subtracting seven total points and adding five more free throw attempts to his current seasonal output; his true shooting calculates as 54.4% – exactly league average for a shooting guard. That would rank 23rd of the 62 players, while using a relatively high distribution of possessions (19th most).
    For what it’s worth, this occurred against a tough schedule. The defensive ratings of the Cavs opponents to date are: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 16th, and 26th. The team already braved a west-coast road trip, yet maintains a non-horrid offense (20th of 30 teams). Softer defenses should be forthcoming.
    Overall, it is very reasonable to expect Dion to regress, but if he finishes with league average true shooting, high-usage, and an assist-to-turnover ratio above one; I will be thrilled. Performance to that degree from a pair of 20-year-old guards exceeds all expectations.
    I do hope Waiters takes his conditioning seriously, hires a nutritionist, etc. A sleek Dion, moving a split-second faster and jumping a hair higher would be awesome. Work on this, young man. Your body is your temple, and if you do this right, a long NBA career, two max-contracts, etc, can be yours.
    (Also, see my Part 1 article below on the Cleveland bench.)

    Pass it around:

    http://www.chatsports.com/cleveland-...eeks-1-6928318#

    There is also a part 1 if anyone is interested, just click on link above. Talks about Cavs bench and rotation


  10. #3698
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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman View Post
    Part 2: A Numerical Take on Dion’s First Two Weeks

    November 13th, 2012 by Kevin Hetrick
    Based on data available at hoopdata.com, through November 12 games, there are 62 shooting guards averaging ten or more minutes per game. Of those, Dion:
    Making 50% at the rim against OKC


    • Takes the thirteenth most shots at the rim per forty minutes (4.5). Of all shooting guards who have made more than one such shot, he has been assisted on the fourth lowest percentage. He gets the ball to the basket. Unfortunately though, he converts a poor 50%, approximately 15% below NBA average this season. Kyrie struggled similarly early last season, and that turned out allright, so hopefully this tide also shifts for Waiters.
    • He jacks the nineteenth highest number of long-twos per forty (4.3), while nailing a robust 48%. This is 10% higher than current league average for SGs. These are the least efficient shots in the game, and ideally Dion learns this and quits showing a propensity for them.
    • From three, he hoists frequently (6.5 per 40, 19th for SGs), and makes them at a ridiculous rate of 53%.
    • He is only shooting 0.18 free throws per field goal attempt. This is below average for a shooting guard. His foul shooting of 60% sits well under the 75% from his two collegiate seasons.

    Clearly the shooting from deep is unsustainable, but if everything else also ‘normalizes’, how does his production look for the first seven games? Well…

    • For a guy attacking the basket reasonably often, I will assume his ability to draw fouls eventually regresses to the league-mean. If he also drained three-quarters of his freebies; that adds six points through his first seven games.
    • If his shooting at the rim was only slightly below league average for an SG (59% compared to 65%), he makes two more field goals. So, four more points.
    • If his shooting on long twos reduced to 43% (compared to 38% average), he only loses one bucket over the first two weeks.
    • The huge aberration is the three point shooting. If his shooting from deep approached his collegiate level of 37%, he makes five less to date, or a 15-point reduction.

    By subtracting seven total points and adding five more free throw attempts to his current seasonal output; his true shooting calculates as 54.4% – exactly league average for a shooting guard. That would rank 23rd of the 62 players, while using a relatively high distribution of possessions (19th most).
    For what it’s worth, this occurred against a tough schedule. The defensive ratings of the Cavs opponents to date are: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 16th, and 26th. The team already braved a west-coast road trip, yet maintains a non-horrid offense (20th of 30 teams). Softer defenses should be forthcoming.
    Overall, it is very reasonable to expect Dion to regress, but if he finishes with league average true shooting, high-usage, and an assist-to-turnover ratio above one; I will be thrilled. Performance to that degree from a pair of 20-year-old guards exceeds all expectations.
    I do hope Waiters takes his conditioning seriously, hires a nutritionist, etc. A sleek Dion, moving a split-second faster and jumping a hair higher would be awesome. Work on this, young man. Your body is your temple, and if you do this right, a long NBA career, two max-contracts, etc, can be yours.
    (Also, see my Part 1 article below on the Cleveland bench.)

    Pass it around:

    http://www.chatsports.com/cleveland-...eeks-1-6928318#

    There is also a part 1 if anyone is interested, just click on link above. Talks about Cavs bench and rotation
    What a fucking retarded article. The writer makes all of these assumptions about how Dion will turn out by the end of the year because what Dion's doing right now isn't normal. Well, guy, did you ever think it's because Dion's not normal? The guy just pulled all of Dion's stats down to norms from college, and that's ok? I think not. Look at guys like Kawhi Leonard. Completely different shooter from the get-go in the NBA. I'm not saying that Dion will sustain these numbers, but we can't just assume that he won't because it's out of the norm based on past experiences.

  11. #3699
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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    All those numbers are nice...

    But none of them take into account the fact that this guy has KILLER written all over his face.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by RMsDanielGibson View Post
    What a fucking retarded article. The writer makes all of these assumptions about how Dion will turn out by the end of the year because what Dion's doing right now isn't normal. Well, guy, did you ever think it's because Dion's not normal? The guy just pulled all of Dion's stats down to norms from college, and that's ok? I think not. Look at guys like Kawhi Leonard. Completely different shooter from the get-go in the NBA. I'm not saying that Dion will sustain these numbers, but we can't just assume that he won't because it's out of the norm based on past experiences.
    Did you miss the assumptions?

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    So basically hes going to regress because like, well, he has to right?

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoCavFan View Post
    Did you miss the assumptions?
    I do understand what he means with "The writer makes all of these assumptions about how Dion will turn out by the end of the year because what Dion's doing right now isn't normal." He's basically just using the stats of an average shooting guard to adjust his stats. Of course it's going to look like he will remain average to above average...

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Are people really arguing that Dion is more likely to continue to shoot 53% from 3 than not?

    The writer isn't writing anything in stone - he's making assumptions based on fairly accurate historical figures.

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  19. #3704
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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by BigErieCavsFan View Post
    I do understand what he means with "The writer makes all of these assumptions about how Dion will turn out by the end of the year because what Dion's doing right now isn't normal." He's basically just using the stats of an average shooting guard to adjust his stats. Of course it's going to look like he will remain average to above average...
    I took RMs post to mean that the writer based the norms off of his college numbers (last few sentences). I must have missed the college stuff, because I read it as regulating Dion's numbers based on the 62 SGs in the NBA.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by MGMT View Post
    So basically hes going to regress because like, well, he has to right?
    Well, the odds aren't good that he'll shoot over 50% from three all season. If he did, that would be incredible. If he can keep his three point percentage above forty for the season I think everyone on here would be incredibly happy and also a bit surprised.

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