Dion Waiters (All-Rookie First Team)

[Jon]

I actually agree, let's replace Dion with a guy from the D-League; they're one in the same, I guess. I'm down for a little Donald Sloan action.

Yay! Strawman!

And no, you're not being objective, you're being overly negative and twisting stats to try and prove a point. Apparently there is no such thing as development...... Let's just revisit this topic in 12 months......

What a load of crap.

We're talking about projecting these players based on what we know now, not what we'll know 12 months from now. If you can't handle that, you don't need to reply.

[Jon]

We all see that Dion is great at splitting defenses, but did anyone stop to think why he is getting double teamed in the first place? Teams are doubling Dion because he is difficult to guard with single coverage. For a rookie to demand double teams tells me more than any advance stat could tell me.

I don't recall seeing teams ever double team Dion. They may try to show hard or trap him off a P&R, but that's typical.

[chrisrich91]

I don't recall seeing teams ever double team Dion. They may try to show hard or trap him off a P&R, but that's typical.

Yeah...he must mean hedging and showing on the pick and roll instead of doubling. I guess we say "split the double" when it's not really a true double team.

Either way, Waiters is pretty good at splitting it.

[jwalker1399]

Yay! Strawman!



What a load of crap.

We're talking about projecting these players based on what we know now, not what we'll know 12 months from now. If you can't handle that, you don't need to reply.

Ok. You've got all the answers, man. I'll continue to choose to be positive and see the good in Dion and you can continue to horde through as many stats as you'd like to prove that he sucks. To each his own......

[Bob Loblaw]

All we can ask for from our young players is progress and Dion is showing it. After shooting 36% through December, he is shooting 44% in 2013, 50% so far in February. He is getting to the line more, finishing at the rim better and taking fewer poor deep jumpers. He is still going to have his ups and downs but hopefully the net result is a noticeable improvement.

[Jon]

Ok. You've got all the answers, man. I'll continue to choose to be positive and see the good in Dion and you can continue to horde through as many stats as you'd like to prove that he sucks. To each his own......

Like I said, I've got zero problem with people who want to take an optimistic outlook about Dion or any of our players. I'm optimistic about them myself. There's no such thing as an accurate projection, unless you're doing it after the fact, so there's plenty of room for other outcomes.

But if you want to stomp on an argument based on an objective measure, then bring an objective counter-argument.

The best news for Dion in that department is his improving shot selection, and better efficiency scoring inside. Now when you combine that with his ability to get in to the paint - you start to get the picture of a player who can go somewhere. That's a trend, though. It's not showing up yet in his overall stats to the point that you can should say with any certainty that he's on track to become an efficient SG - but at least it's making him look a whole lot less pathetic.


Can you understand that?

On the flip side, a counter-trend is that he's been struggling to shoot the 3 and as the season has progressed his attempts have plummeted. So what seemed to be a pleasant plus for him when he was shooting 36% on his 3's in January has become nearly absent from his game in February.

If/when Dion starts showing signs that he's going to be a top SG in the league, I'll gladly admit it, and even more importantly ... I'll be able to support it.

[RTrees]

...but at least it's making him look a whole lot less pathetic.

It's possible that words like "pathetic" give you away..

You can be objective by using stats... You can also use objective measures to be subjective.

You can have a subjective view, that a guy's pathetic in some way or another, and focus on presenting the stats that make him come off that way..

It's presentation.

Not saying you're doing this.. but it's possible.

Of course for most great players, you can find something from their rookie year, or early in their rookie year, that makes them look like a rookie.

[Kizzle]

Look at how Dion scores.....theres just no way ppl who have watched the NBA alot can say that he doesnt have all star potential.....At the worst hes a very good 6th man.

But eventually I think he'll figure the league out and start droppin 18-20 PPG

[Jon]

It's possible that words like "pathetic" give you away..

But a 35% FG% is pathetic. It doesn't matter who owns it.

39%, I'd classify as craptastic.

If Dion can pull it up to 42% by the end of the year, he can achieve acceptable for a rook.

[Jon]

Look at how Dion scores.....theres just no way ppl who have watched the NBA alot can say that he doesnt have all star potential.....At the worst hes a very good 6th man.

Unless those people have watched a lot of young flashy players with great moves turn in to inefficient bums ...

[Pioneer10]

What stats do predict "late blossomers" like a Paul George? I mean if you have an Irving type of rookie season chances are you are going to be good but what about guys who take a little time such as Harden or George. W/o at least a regression analysis: you can just cherry-pick away. Even with a regression analysis, hard to judge as we don't how strong the correlations are if they do exist

From RedBlackAttacks previous posts in this thread: it seemed like a lot of star SG's (i.e. if you weren't MJ) just weren't very good, particularly in the first half, of their rookie years.

[wremy]

All we can ask for from our young players is progress and Dion is showing it. After shooting 36% through December, he is shooting 44% in 2013, 50% so far in February. He is getting to the line more, finishing at the rim better and taking fewer poor deep jumpers. He is still going to have his ups and downs but hopefully the net result is a noticeable improvement.

Couldn't agree more...how many were ready to give up on TT last year?... I get a kick out of the Cleveland media who bitches about our season but honestly the best thing for this team is to keep improving and keep adding high draft picks this year... next year is when they are expected IMO to compete for a playoff spot...the year after with FA they may be able to contend for the title

[Jon]

What stats do predict "late blossomers" like a Paul George? I mean if you have an Irving type of rookie season chances are you are going to be good but what about guys who take a little time such as Harden or George. W/o at least a regression analysis: you can just cherry-pick away. Even with a regression analysis, hard to judge as we don't how strong the correlations are if they do exist

Oh, I think George did some things that were fairly impressive statistically both in college and his rookie season. Heck, both Harden and George sported TS% of 55.1% their rookie years while Dion is currently at 47.9%.

But a true late bloomer isn't a player you can project statistically ... he's an outlier.

All I'm talking about is what we can project statistically.

What is Dion currently doing statistically that makes him look like a future elite player?

Nothing I can discern.

What is Drummond doing that makes him look like a future elite player?

Terrific rebounding rate, offensive rebounding rate, block rate, steal rate, and FG%.

Basically 5 categories to 0 as I see it. If you think 14.2 PPG on 13.4 attempts is a big deal, then you might credit Dion 1. If you think Dion's all around performance is a big deal ... well, you can always look at PER ... and his 12.7 PER is nothing special.

We can leave box-score land and look at other areas. Dion's +/- stats are average to below average. Andre's aren't stellar either, but they're average to above average.

We can visit Synergy's free data, and it'll show that Dion's is below average in most defensive situations except defending players off-screens. We can flip to his offensive charts and see he's above average on spot-up attempts and in transition ... but below average everywhere else.

Or we can do the same for Andre, and we'll see that defensively he's above average in all categories, and pretty good offensively except on post-ups and ISOs which he's not been asked to do very much.

It is what it is guys - at least until it isn't any longer.

[Jon]

Couldn't agree more...how many were ready to give up on TT last year?

I wasn't. IMO, Tristan was performing well in the areas he was expected to perform well.

[Baseline Runner]

Oh, I think George did some things that were fairly impressive statistically both in college and his rookie season. Heck, both Harden and George sported TS% of 55.1% their rookie years while Dion is currently at 47.9%.

But a true late bloomer isn't a player you can project statistically ... he's an outlier.

All I'm talking about is what we can project statistically.

What is Dion currently doing statistically that makes him look like a future elite player?

Nothing I can discern.

What is Drummond doing that makes him look like a future elite player?

Terrific rebounding rate, offensive rebounding rate, block rate, steal rate, and FG%.

Basically 5 categories to 0 as I see it. If you think 14.2 PPG on 13.4 attempts is a big deal, then you might credit Dion 1. If you think Dion's all around performance is a big deal ... well, you can always look at PER ... and his 12.7 PER is nothing special.

We can leave box-score land and look at other areas. Dion's +/- stats are average to below average. Andre's aren't stellar either, but they're average to above average.

We can visit Synergy's free data, and it'll show that Dion's is below average in most defensive situations except defending players off-screens. We can flip to his offensive charts and see he's above average on spot-up attempts and in transition ... but below average everywhere else.

Or we can do the same for Andre, and we'll see that defensively he's above average in all categories, and pretty good offensively except on post-ups and ISOs which he's not been asked to do very much.

It is what it is guys - at least until it isn't any longer.

The problem with this whole approach is that you are forgetting he is a rookie. Few rookies are statistically impressive during their rookie seasons. Lebron shot 41% from the floor and 29% from three for crying out loud. A lot of draft picks, who end up being busts, aren't even good enough to get off of the bench, much less statically excel at anything. Actually for a rookie to come into the league and be average or above average in just about every facet of the game, much as Dion is doing, is quite rare and actually a very good sign.

In my opinion Waiters projects to be a Manu or Dumars type of player while Drummond projects to be a Camby or Chandler. That would be a great success for both franchises, but to compare the two is an apples and oranges comparison (which is why I brought up Drummond in the first place) and stats at this point, in which both players are continually improving and evolving as NBA players, are largely irrelevant.