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Thread: Dion Waiters

  1. #5626
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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    We all see that Dion is great at splitting defenses, but did anyone stop to think why he is getting double teamed in the first place? Teams are doubling Dion because he is difficult to guard with single coverage. For a rookie to demand double teams tells me more than any advance stat could tell me.

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    Well I'm no expert but i don't think you have to be double teamed to be able to split a defense. In pick and roll situations this opportunity comes up a lot. I wouldn't call it double team.
    The Cavs in Portugal!

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Jon View Post
    Dion's play making shows up exactly the same way in the assist column. There are also various ways to look at defense if you wish to go beyond rebounds, blocks, and steals.
    Not really. Few shooting guards average more than 4 assists per game, whether a good play maker or not. Shooting guards don't have very high usage rates in general and when they do get the ball they are expected to score. The exceptions have been players like Kobe and Jordan that have extremely high usage rates and draw double teams when they do get the ball.

    Besides, assist numbers have never been a great gauge for playmaking abilities, even for point guards. For example there are some ball dominant point guards that rack up a lot of assists but can't really penetrate and dish, draw double teams or play the fast break well. For example Jose Calderon is an average at best play maker even though he racks up a lot of assists. Yes he has good technical ability in his passing skill, but he doesn't create many plays for the offense. Chris Paul, on the other hand, has only slightly better assists per 48 minute numbers than Calderon, but he is a much better play maker because he is a far more dynamic player offensively, something that just doesn't show up in the stats. Dion, in much the same way, appears to be a good play maker for the SG position.

    Your method for evaluating players seems to look at the stat line and see something that stands out. In this way if you look at Drummond the rebounds and blocks per 48 minutes would surely look impressive, and they are in a sense. But stats are only one tool among several used to evaluate players. The ratio of time spent looking at players and talking with coaches by scouting staff when evaluating someone, compared to analyzing stats, is probably about 100:1. Sure they take stats into consideration, but it is a book cover type quality before they really dig deep into evaluating a player.

    Obviously Dion wasn't drafted for his stats in which he came off the bench and only averaged 12 PPG for Syracuse, a number that was bested by hundreds of players in the NCAA. Rather, there are other qualities that stats don't define that lead him to be highly evaluated and drafted at #4, just as we fans highly evaluate him today based on what we see on the court, not for his stats.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseline Runner View Post
    Obviously Dion wasn't drafted for his stats in which he came off the bench and only averaged 12 PPG for Syracuse, a number that was bested by hundreds of players in the NCAA. Rather, there are other qualities that stats don't define that lead him to be highly evaluated and drafted at #4, just as we fans highly evaluate him today based on what we see on the court, not for his stats.
    This is just incorrect. Dion's stats were very impressive when you take into account his minutes played. His standout statistical profile was the reason Hollinger had Waiters rated as the best wing prospect in the draft, and it's probably also the reason that the Cavs were willing to "reach" to pick him fourth.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Brickman View Post
    This is just incorrect. Dion's stats were very impressive when you take into account his minutes played. His standout statistical profile was the reason Hollinger had Waiters rated as the best wing prospect in the draft, and it's probably also the reason that the Cavs were willing to "reach" to pick him fourth.
    Well if you just go by every interview from Grant, Scott and company when they talk about why they drafted him, they say how they scouted him thoroughly, and talked about how the "kid could play". But I've never saw them mention anything about his stats. I really doubt Hollinger played any sort of role in our draft decision.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseline Runner View Post
    Well if you just go by every interview from Grant, Scott and company when they talk about why they drafted him, they say how they scouted him thoroughly, and talked about how the "kid could play". But I've never saw them mention anything about his stats. I really doubt Hollinger played any sort of role in our draft decision.
    I didn't say Hollinger played a role in the draft decision. However, Hollinger's system seems to be at least somewhat similar to the one the Cavs use based on many of the decisions that they have made, particularly in the draft. That doesn't mean that they use Hollinger's system or that they take his advice, but rather that the system they use arrives at similar conclusions to the one he uses.

    And of course the team isn't going to clue other teams into the system they use to make their decisions. Those are highly-guarded secrets that teams would never reveal to other teams.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by CPK View Post
    Man Jon, you have the uncanny ability to eviscerate all human hope and glee.
    lol, I don't have a problem with taking an optimistic view - but as Cavs fans we're just drooling over our keyboards if we can't keep some perspective when making projections.

    Dion's at 50% from the field so far in February, and after 42% in January. So he's making steps in the right direction.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseline Runner View Post
    Not really. Few shooting guards average more than 4 assists per game, whether a good play maker or not. Shooting guards don't have very high usage rates in general and when they do get the ball they are expected to score. The exceptions have been players like Kobe and Jordan that have extremely high usage rates and draw double teams when they do get the ball.
    This just isn't true. Plenty of SGs average or have averaged 4 or more assists per game, some of them not even especially very talented.

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseline Runner View Post
    Besides, assist numbers have never been a great gauge for playmaking abilities, even for point guards.
    There's a lot more to playmaking than being able to penetrate and kick the ball out to a shooter. The PG who can generate assists by just running the offense deserves credit as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseline Runner View Post
    Your method for evaluating players seems to look at the stat line and see something that stands out. In this way if you look at Drummond the rebounds and blocks per 48 minutes would surely look impressive, and they are in a sense. But stats are only one tool among several used to evaluate players. The ratio of time spent looking at players and talking with coaches by scouting staff when evaluating someone, compared to analyzing stats, is probably about 100:1. Sure they take stats into consideration, but it is a book cover type quality before they really dig deep into evaluating a player.
    My method for projecting a player statistically ... yes involves looking at a players stats and comparing them to other players. This should be obvious. Of course it's not the only means to project a player, it's simply the most objective.

    If we want to go the more tradional route, I'm not sure why your appraisal of Dion's upside is more compelling than DraftExpress'

    Looking forward, Waiters brings an interesting package of skills to the table along with a good amount of untapped potential. His style of play should seemingly translate well in a combo guard role off the bench as a sparkplug transition and pick and roll scorer who can defend multiple positions, which every NBA team seems to have at least one of these days.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baseline Runner View Post
    Obviously Dion wasn't drafted for his stats in which he came off the bench and only averaged 12 PPG for Syracuse, a number that was bested by hundreds of players in the NCAA. Rather, there are other qualities that stats don't define that lead him to be highly evaluated and drafted at #4, just as we fans highly evaluate him today based on what we see on the court, not for his stats.
    The #1 problem with projecting College players statistically is taking in to account the level of competition. Now that Dion and Drummond are in the NBA, this is no longer an issue. We're looking at their actual stats .vs. the best players in the world. We just have to take in to account the other factors, such as age, experience, and how they're being used.

    You're of course welcome to come to your own conclusions, but you can't lay that on the board as if it's a fact if you can't prove it.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by jwalker1399 View Post
    I actually agree, let's replace Dion with a guy from the D-League; they're one in the same, I guess. I'm down for a little Donald Sloan action.
    Yay! Strawman!

    Quote Originally Posted by jwalker1399 View Post
    And no, you're not being objective, you're being overly negative and twisting stats to try and prove a point. Apparently there is no such thing as development...... Let's just revisit this topic in 12 months......
    What a load of crap.

    We're talking about projecting these players based on what we know now, not what we'll know 12 months from now. If you can't handle that, you don't need to reply.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseline Runner View Post
    We all see that Dion is great at splitting defenses, but did anyone stop to think why he is getting double teamed in the first place? Teams are doubling Dion because he is difficult to guard with single coverage. For a rookie to demand double teams tells me more than any advance stat could tell me.
    I don't recall seeing teams ever double team Dion. They may try to show hard or trap him off a P&R, but that's typical.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Jon View Post
    I don't recall seeing teams ever double team Dion. They may try to show hard or trap him off a P&R, but that's typical.
    Yeah...he must mean hedging and showing on the pick and roll instead of doubling. I guess we say "split the double" when it's not really a true double team.

    Either way, Waiters is pretty good at splitting it.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Jon View Post
    Yay! Strawman!



    What a load of crap.

    We're talking about projecting these players based on what we know now, not what we'll know 12 months from now. If you can't handle that, you don't need to reply.
    Ok. You've got all the answers, man. I'll continue to choose to be positive and see the good in Dion and you can continue to horde through as many stats as you'd like to prove that he sucks. To each his own......

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    All we can ask for from our young players is progress and Dion is showing it. After shooting 36% through December, he is shooting 44% in 2013, 50% so far in February. He is getting to the line more, finishing at the rim better and taking fewer poor deep jumpers. He is still going to have his ups and downs but hopefully the net result is a noticeable improvement.


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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by jwalker1399 View Post
    Ok. You've got all the answers, man. I'll continue to choose to be positive and see the good in Dion and you can continue to horde through as many stats as you'd like to prove that he sucks. To each his own......
    Like I said, I've got zero problem with people who want to take an optimistic outlook about Dion or any of our players. I'm optimistic about them myself. There's no such thing as an accurate projection, unless you're doing it after the fact, so there's plenty of room for other outcomes.

    But if you want to stomp on an argument based on an objective measure, then bring an objective counter-argument.

    The best news for Dion in that department is his improving shot selection, and better efficiency scoring inside. Now when you combine that with his ability to get in to the paint - you start to get the picture of a player who can go somewhere. That's a trend, though. It's not showing up yet in his overall stats to the point that you can should say with any certainty that he's on track to become an efficient SG - but at least it's making him look a whole lot less pathetic.


    Can you understand that?

    On the flip side, a counter-trend is that he's been struggling to shoot the 3 and as the season has progressed his attempts have plummeted. So what seemed to be a pleasant plus for him when he was shooting 36% on his 3's in January has become nearly absent from his game in February.

    If/when Dion starts showing signs that he's going to be a top SG in the league, I'll gladly admit it, and even more importantly ... I'll be able to support it.

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    Default Re: Welcome Dion Waiters

    Quote Originally Posted by Jon View Post
    ...but at least it's making him look a whole lot less pathetic.
    It's possible that words like "pathetic" give you away..

    You can be objective by using stats... You can also use objective measures to be subjective.

    You can have a subjective view, that a guy's pathetic in some way or another, and focus on presenting the stats that make him come off that way..

    It's presentation.

    Not saying you're doing this.. but it's possible.

    Of course for most great players, you can find something from their rookie year, or early in their rookie year, that makes them look like a rookie.

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