Dion Waiters (All-Rookie First Team)

[FiveThous]

If we have a better shooting and stronger version of Larry Hughes are we really going to be upset about that?

Ill take 18/5/5 from my starting 2 all day.

[narbar32]

If we have a better shooting and stronger version of Larry Hughes are we really going to be upset about that?

Ill take 18/5/5 from my starting 2 all day.

No I wouldn't be upset about that, especially if Dion doesn't have the constant injury interruptions that Larry had.

One concern, though, is that Dion isn't currently shooting any better than a young Larry Hughes -- you know, that guy who eventually caused fans to create a web page dedicated solely to telling him to stop shooting?

Sample size, sample size, though.

[Czvosec]

David Thorpe's rookie rankings came out today. Has Dion 12th or 13th (can't remember exactly). Here's what he said:

"Waiters still looks like a more dribble-happy version of Marcus Thornton with a bigger upside. His raw numbers looked good against the Magic — he scored 25 points and dished out 5 assists with no turnovers. But I counted him shooting 3-for-10 on bad shots, meaning he missed seven times when he had far better options than what he chose: step-back 3s with time on the clock, a one-on-three transition drive and “hope” shot, and forced long jumpers.

During Cleveland’s recent five-game stretch, he made five shots per game and missed 12 per game, which is tough to swallow when Cleveland lost four of those games by close margins. If Waiters learns the value of good shot selection, he’ll see his shooting percentages go up while his team wins more games.”

Boy its great to trash results without context, isn't it? Now, I realize that Thorpe's results should be taken with a grain of salt considering he's on the payroll of some of these players (remember when he said Tristan would be the 2nd rookie taken in a re-draft? Even the most homerific of Cavs fans would scoff at that), but... well, I lost my train of thought. So I'll just copy and paste what I wrote over at Cavs: The Blog.

"In regards to the “more dribble-happy Marcus Thornton” comment, frankly, I find that absurd considering I’ve never seen a player who appears to love dribbling more than Thornton does. And while Dion may sometimes take some ill-advised shots (for which I can’t really blame him given that, with Irving out, he’s really the only player that can effectively create for himself), he’s a better facilitator than Thornton ever has been.

Also, these rankings are dumb, and pointless, and dumb. We’re a month into the season."

[narbar32]

David Thorpe's rookie rankings came out today. Has Dion 12th or 13th (can't remember exactly). Here's what he said:



Boy its great to trash results without context, isn't it? Now, I realize that Thorpe's results should be taken with a grain of salt considering he's on the payroll of some of these players (remember when he said Tristan would be the 2nd rookie taken in a re-draft? Even the most homerific of Cavs fans would scoff at that), but... well, I lost my train of thought. So I'll just copy and paste what I wrote over at Cavs: The Blog.

"In regards to the “more dribble-happy Marcus Thornton” comment, frankly, I find that absurd considering I’ve never seen a player who appears to love dribbling more than Thornton does. And while Dion may sometimes take some ill-advised shots (for which I can’t really blame him given that, with Irving out, he’s really the only player that can effectively create for himself), he’s a better facilitator than Thornton ever has been.

Also, these rankings are dumb, and pointless, and dumb. We’re a month into the season."

I can understand taking shots at Thorpe because of how off the wall he may occasionally get and I can also even understand taking issue with where he's ranked Dion amongst rookies, but this is the second time now I can remember thinking he really didn't seem too far off in terms of what he actually has to say about Dion so far.

I don't think "Marcus Thornton with higher upside" is either all that damning nor is it even close to the most absurd comparisons I've heard for Dion. And lack of surrounding talent can only go so far in excusing poor shot selection. Sure, he's bearing a lot of the scoring load, with and especially without Kyrie, but he still takes far more of those shots Thorpe has described than I'm comfortable with. I think too many of his shots are at the expense of better shots. An early shot clock, pull up, contested 3 is typically not a good shot, regardless of supporting cast, and he's taking them. He can get where he wants on the court pretty well, but too frequently settles rather than looking for a better opportunity. Those are problems that are neither unique for young scoring guards nor are they ALWAYS at the expense of the things he's doing well, but they're areas in need of improvement nonetheless.

And I agree wholeheartedly with Thorpe in that if Dion learns to better differentiate a good shot from a bad shot, and takes them accordingly, his numbers and this team's overall success rate will improve.

[Jack Brickman]

If we have a better shooting and stronger version of Larry Hughes are we really going to be upset about that?

Ill take 18/5/5 from my starting 2 all day.

Larry Hughes was never a terrible player. He was horribly miscast here as a point guard, though, and that was obviously a Mike Brown/Danny Ferry decision. He also had a damning tendency to dribble in two steps and jack up a mid-ranger from just outside the free throw line with 18 seconds left on the shot clock that he somehow managed to miss every single time. Actually, that mid-ranger was probably about 90% of the reason I hated him.

[B3team]

I can understand taking shots at Thorpe because of how off the wall he may occasionally get and I can also even understand taking issue with where he's ranked Dion amongst rookies, but this is the second time now I can remember thinking he really didn't seem too far off in terms of what he actually has to say about Dion so far.

I don't think "Marcus Thornton with higher upside" is either all that damning nor is it even close to the most absurd comparisons I've heard for Dion. And lack of surrounding talent can only go so far in excusing poor shot selection. Sure, he's bearing a lot of the scoring load, with and especially without Kyrie, but he still takes far more of those shots Thorpe has described than I'm comfortable with. I think too many of his shots are at the expense of better shots. An early shot clock, pull up, contested 3 is typically not a good shot, regardless of supporting cast, and he's taking them. He can get where he wants on the court pretty well, but too frequently settles rather than looking for a better opportunity. Those are problems that are neither unique for young scoring guards nor are they ALWAYS at the expense of the things he's doing well, but they're areas in need of improvement nonetheless.

And I agree wholeheartedly with Thorpe in that if Dion learns to better differentiate a good shot from a bad shot, and takes them accordingly, his numbers and this team's overall success rate will improve.

agreed. I still don't understand how anyone in the NBA is allowed by their coach to take a contested 3 pt shot early in the shot clock. There is no excuse for it. It doesn't make sense because that shot will still be there at the end of the shot clock, why not try to move the ball around first and if all else fails then launch the low percentage 3 ball? Byron Scott should immediately pull Waiters out every time he shoots a contested 3 early in the clock.

[Tornicade]

allI know is I wanted an eric gordon type player for this team and we now have one.

[InBoobieWeTrust]

Dion's much stronger, much more physical, and a much better defender than Thorton. He's got a better NBA frame as well. That's why I have confidence in him becoming a good player rather than just another gunner from the bench.

[ImWithDan]

People need to understand that Dion's shot selection has been adversely affected by Kyrie's injury.

Someone has to fill the scoring void and it's pretty clear (to me) that Dion is just trying to do a little too much on the offensive end.

While some might argue Scott should pull him aside, it's largely a function of:

A.) having the ball in his hands more than normal.
B.) no one else on the roster being able to score.

When Kyrie facilitates more of the offense, Dion gets put in better positons.....both in catch and shoot situations and catch and slash. I think Byron understands that.

There will come a time when Dion will have to be a little more judicious with his shot attempts....but on a 3-12 team? With the best player injured? I'm just not that concerned.

Let him take his lumps and adjust accordingly. It is part of learning how to play in the NBA. I have faith that Scott and co. are using film from this stretch to encourage Dion to be a little more selective.

[3 Da Hard Way]

[cavsfanclanman]

I think Dion's really matured in the last 6 months, seeing him in interviews and just the way he presents self makes me think he has the right attitude. The shooting percentage is a bummer, but since he's the perceived as the best wing on the court (with kyrie out) he's been getting double teamed most of the times he touches the ball now. I think not having another threat on the floor is really making it difficult for him. However, I think he'll figure it out. He's not playing the "the shot just didn't fall my way" card, he's saying "I need to do better". That's a heathy attitude for him. Still, the rest of his game has really been good for rookie I think. His passing, and play making has potential to be great, and he has good instincts on defense.

Overall I'm very happy with this guy. The situation he's in is a weird one, but I think it will be beneficial in the end. Rookies have ups and downs. Oddly enough, he'll probably have a game here soon where he makes more than 50% and scores over 25, and people will say he's playing better, but the shots just might be dropping that night. I really do think he'll get used to the speed of the game, the ability of the defenders and where his shots are...he's a gamer.

[Tornicade]

Waiters is typically very smooth and fast bringin the ball up the court. except the last two games. ultimate result the cavs scored 30 less points.

Waiters can really make the offense go

and this isnt about pg/sg in the Cavs offense both guards are responsible to bring the ball up the court. so im not suggesting he should run the offense but that he is very good at bringing up the ball at a fast pace.

the guy just has a good stride.

What we saw in memphis was Tony allen playing a full court press to slow him down. then in phoenix he just seemed to not have that gear.

Teams are now zeroing in on Waiters. they are taking away his spot 3's everyone is complainng about because he is damn good at them.

although pargo has done a decent job he really doesnt set up the offense to allow Dion to do much off the ball even if he wanted to. AV taking point at the top of the key while effeective just isnt something that can be done every time down the court.

A problem with the half court offense is that guys are going in meeting a wall then kicking it out to the line. Without Irving in there. Waiters should be getting fed on the opposite high post. Ive seent hem try it a couple times but the timing is really off mostly because the kick out is a bail out play and another is because the 2nd man getting the ball toward the weak side outer area holds the ball and forces dion to come to that side of the court.

[RedBlackAttack]

Sorry guys... Just getting caught back up with comments.

Sooooooo we can probably conclude from that data he isn't going to be MJ. Damn what a waste of a 4th pick.

Maybe the only absolute certainty in all of my data... No, he's not Michael Jordan. Quite honestly, I wasn't going to even include MJ's numbers because... Well, it seemed rather pointless. But, his numbers were so good, I couldn't help but to post them. It shows the level to which he is simply above and beyond every other 2 who has come after him.

Does anyone else take consolation in the fact that the Cavs weren't one of the two teams who passed on Jordan in the '84 draft? Can you imagine if we had the Blazers' 2nd pick that year and took Bowie? That would have fit comfortably in-between Red Right 88 and The Drive.

Phewww... Dodged a bullet. (no doubt in my mind we would have taken Sam)

What about paul pierce?

Sure thing. Though I consider him a 3, he belongs in the conversation.

For the sake of direct comparison, here are Dion's numbers again...

Dion Waiters
Age: 20
31.9 minutes
15.0 points (37.2% FG, 73.2% FT, 37.2% 3PT)
2.9 assists
2.2 rebounds
1.3 steals
1.7 Turnovers
Team Record: 3-12

------------------------

Paul Pierce
Age: 21
34.9 minutes
18.0 points (42.7% FG, 73.4% FT, 39.4% 3PT)
2.5 assists
6.5 rebounds
2.7 steals
1.4 blocks
2.1 turnovers
Team Record: 10-5


Wow. I knew PP was pretty good right out of the box, but those are some impressive numbers... Especially the combination of rebounds, steals and blocks.

Pierce is pretty much the definition of a safe bet coming out of college. I don't think many expected him to have quite the ceiling that he turned out to have, but I remember being pretty sure when he was at Kansas that he would translate well to the NBA.

I appreciate your efforts in gathering these comparisons, but ultimately I don't know if you can make much of them, as you said. Minutes played, role, team composition, particularity of opponents, etc... just make it so difficult to draw any real conclusions from these types of stat comparisons.

I just looked up a few less successful examples/comparisons, as a reference, just to satiate my own curiosity (and I didn't do it as well as you, admittedly):

Randy Foye's first month in the NBA
14 games
14.6 mins/gm
6.4 pts/gm
1.6 rebs
1.3 ast
.418 FG%

Extrapolated to Dion's 31.9 mins/gm (which is entirely unfair, but also kind of my point), Randy's at 13.98 pts/gm with better rebounding and assist numbers.

Larry Hughes' first month
13 games
18.2 mins/gm
9.5 pts/gm
3.3 rebs
1.2 asts
.456 FG%

At Dion's 31.9 mins/gm, Larry would be at 16.65 pts/gm

Quentin Richardson's first month
14 games
16 mins/gm
7.8 pts/gm
3.3 rebs
0.4 asts
.424 FG%

At Dion's minutes, Q would be at 15.55 pts/gm

Obviously, just as you weren't saying Dion is going to be better or as good as all the elite players you listed, I'm not saying Dion is going to have a worse career than the players I listed.

I think my only conclusion is the very obvious one (and readily cited around here) that it's hard to draw any firm conclusions from this small sample size, especially just looking at stats. Some players who have achieved some of the highest levels of success in the NBA have started off slow and some players have looked like they could play but just never developed enough to get to those same levels of success. One thing I will say from looking up a lot of these guys' numbers, in conjunction with what I've seen on the court: it appears that Dion belongs in the NBA. Guys like Foye, Hughes, and Q have all had up and down careers, but relatively long ones. It may not seem like much, but it's nice to feel confident that our #4 selection is a guy who can at least play in the NBA enough to be an asset, while still being able to realistically hope for success far beyond just that. There have been top 5 picks who never even got that far.

Yep, pretty much the way I felt when looking at the numbers. There are way too many variables to pull too much from these raw statistics.

The whole point of posting them was just to give people (and myself) an idea of what other inevitably elite guys were doing 15 games into their careers, mainly because I'm unaccustomed to paying this close of attention to a rookie shooting guard... And one that we all hope will end up on the elite level eventually.

No, the raw statistics obviously don't give you a clear window into how his rookie season will project, let alone where he'll be 5-6 years down the road. What they do, however, (at least to me) is show that Dion's inefficiency is nothing uncommon at this stage, even for some of the most talented, current elites of the league.

There were two guys in particular who stuck out to me when doing this research...

Dwyane Wade for obvious reasons. I find it almost kind of eerie that these two guys were used in comparisons leading up to the draft and all offseason and their scoring numbers are so damn close. There are literally only a handful of makes/misses between them.

One thing I'd like to find out and maybe it is something I can locate when I have a little more time on my hands... How was Wade doing his scoring? Obviously, with making just 21-percent of his three-pointers at this stage and Dion pushing 40-percent, we can deduce that Dion had far better accuracy from deep. But, more to the point, was Wade having difficulty finishing among the trees in the NBA the way Dion has thus far?

While I'm not completely willing to delve that deep into the statistics and start digging through decade-old shot charts, I can extrapolate out their respective advanced statistics through the first 15 games of their careers.


Dion Waiters
Minutes - 31.9
Usage Rate - 24.5%
TS% - 46.7
eFG% - 43.7
Assist% - 16.7
tRB% - 4.1
Steal% - 2.3
Turnover% - 9.7

Offensive Rating - 98
Defensive Rating - 110

------------------------------


Dwyane Wade
Minutes - 34.9
Usage Rate - 25.4%
TS% - 43.0
eFG% - 38.5
Assist% - 25.2
tRB% - 7.3
Steal% - 2.0
Turnover% - 17.5

Offensive Rating - 87
Defensive Rating - 104


Again, not all of these numbers mean a whole hell of a lot. However, the ones which I find particularly interesting are the players' usage rates... Wade had a slight advantage when it comes to having plays run through and for him.

When you consider Dion is averaging more points in less minutes with a lower usage rate, I find it noteworthy.

The other two interesting advanced stats are TS% and eFG%... Dion's better three-point shooting is obviously a big help in giving him the edge in these categories, but I was still surprised that his lead was 3-5 percentage points.

I think that is significant enough to be factored into these in-depth looks.

Once again, I want to preface all of this by saying it would be foolish to extrapolate this data and attempt to surmise anything from it beyond this small 15-game sample. But, considering the comparisons coming into the season, I don't think Dion has done anything to prove he doesn't deserve at least a closer look at this stage. He's acquitted well so far, in fact. Now, whether he can keep it up is something else.


The other guy I found interesting was Westbrook, mainly because the Cavs and OKC were in similar team positions during his first 15 games. He was obviously stepping into the situation as the prospective No. 2 guy on the roster and both teams proved early in the season that they weren't quite ready for primetime, despite a bevy of young talent.

And, once again, when you look at the raw numbers, Dion has early advantages in terms of amount of scoring and scoring efficiency.



I'd be lying if I said I wasn't at least a little encouraged when looking up these numbers. One thing I will note is that it isn't easy to average 15 or more points at this stage as a 20-year-old rookie, regardless of situation, efficiency or whatever. Some guys are simply not capable of stepping into the NBA and averaging that kind of number... A lot of guys. Most guys.

What I think the numbers prove right now is that Dion, at least so far, has shown what we (or at least I) hoped for when the pick was made... High impact scorer with a very high ceiling.

You have a guy whose all ready scoring at a high rate and he doesn't even seem to be scratching the surface yet. So, these numbers aren't about attempting to show he will not be as good as this guy (except Jordan) and will be better than that guy... It is about getting a handle on where his game stands in the broader picture.

What we see with our own two eyes and how that player stands with history as a primer. Personally, I like his current state in both the visual and the data-driven.

[Tornicade]

Rk	Player	Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	MP	FGA	3PA	FTA	FG%	3P%	FT%	FGA	3PA	AST	PER
3	Kerry Kittles	1996-97	22	NJN	NBA	82	57	3012	1189	419	227	.426	.377	.771	14.5	5.1	3.0	16.0
5	Dion Waiters	2012-13	21	CLE	NBA	15	15	479	223	78	41	.372	.372	.732	14.9	5.2	2.9	12.6

[Kizzle]

I hate seeing stats when ppl are comparing players man...It just dont matter. Do the eye test man....Is Dion as good as Wade his rookie year? Can we even tell yet honestly?