Dion Waiters (All-Rookie First Team)

[Cavatt]

Funny that it is his 3's that have been so effective. If I had guessed I would have said all the misses at the rim that Andy, Tristan, and even Gee have put back.

[mhi]

@PDcavsinsider
Dion Waiters did not make the trip to Minnesota. Remains in Cleveland to rehab sprained left ankle

damnit, the team is near unwatchable with him and kyrie out.

[Lottery God]

@PDcavsinsider
Dion Waiters did not make the trip to Minnesota. Remains in Cleveland to rehab sprained left ankle

(Just replace the word "show" with "tank" every time)

The tank must go on!

(On a sidenote, what a fucked up music video!)

[Jon]

Perhaps a reread of the article is in order then.

He mentions that Asik is a good rebounder. He doesn't say whether he's a good offensive rebounder. Checking his per36 rates and ORB%, he's pretty good. But we're still not there yet, because what the author's point is that a low % of Harden's misses do not result in put backs.

To delve in to that issue you have to know a) how many of Harden's misses does Asik actually rebound, b) where does he typically get his hands on them, and c) how good is he at scoring from those positions.

Put all that together and there might be a conclusion to draw - or I suppose it might even be easier to just watch some Rockets games and just see what's going on. Hah! j/k ... who'd want to do that?

[Baseline Runner]

This story is a must read for stat lovers and stat haters alike.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8719297/how-kobe-bryant-missed-shots-translate-new-nba-statistic-kobe-assist

What I love is that as a rookie he is already getting intoarticles like this. Half of this forum didn't think this kid would amount to anything when he was drafted, but aside from being mega-talented, he seems to be an intangibles player doing all of the little things right.

[JiggleIt]

Even after reading the article, it seems to me that the "Kobe assist" is a function of the rebounders on that team and the timing of the shot ie whether the rebounders are in position.

For example, if you threw a bunch of 5'9 guys on the floor for the Lakers, would Kobe have nearly as many "Kobe assists?" No. If you threw Larry Hughes out there with Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard and other quality rebounders and had him take the exact same shot, he should theoretically have the exact same amount of assists...because of who is out there.

What my point is, is that the guy missing the shots could easily be replaced and come up with a similar result, whereas the rebounders cannot.

I don't see any creedence in the stat as applies to anything other than the quality of rebounders on the team.

[NIkeL]

Even after reading the article, it seems to me that the "Kobe assist" is a function of the rebounders on that team and the timing of the shot ie whether the rebounders are in position.

For example, if you threw a bunch of 5'9 guys on the floor for the Lakers, would Kobe have nearly as many "Kobe assists?" No. If you threw Larry Hughes out there with Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard and other quality rebounders and had him take the exact same shot, he should theoretically have the exact same amount of assists...because of who is out there.

What my point is, is that the guy missing the shots could easily be replaced and come up with a similar result, whereas the rebounders cannot.

I don't see any creedence in the stat as applies to anything other than the quality of rebounders on the team.

I agree, and they already have a stat for this kind of situations, its called the rebound and "rewards" the right player (who gets the ball, not who misses).

[Jon]

I don't see any creedence in the stat as applies to anything other than the quality of rebounders on the team.

I'm not dismissing his idea, I just don't think he actually demonstrated it. There are sooo many factors that go in to deciding whether you get an offensive rebound and put it back - and many of them do depend on the shooter - and many of them don't. Sorting it out is the trick.

[JiggleIt]

I'm not dismissing his idea, I just don't think he actually demonstrated it. There are sooo many factors that go in to deciding whether you get an offensive rebound and put it back - and many of them do depend on the shooter - and many of them don't. Sorting it out is the trick.

You might not be dismissing it, but I am.

The only factors I can determine that are influenced by the shooter are:

(1) whether he waits until rebounders are in position
(2) the trajectory of the shot
(3) the spacing changes that result from him loading up and taking a shot

Factor 3 seems to be the most applicable. If you're a great shooter, you migh draw a rebounder out of the paint AND draw your defender out to close on your shot. That creates space for one of your rebounders to get in for an o board.

With reason 1, it's senseless for catch and shoot guys to wait until rebounders are in place because he misses an opportunity to take a clean shot, which is extraordinarily difficult to achieve in the NBA. Defenders are too big and fast at the NBA level to pass up an open shot to wait for rebounders to get in position.

Reason 2 is unreliable. There's only a handful of guys in the NBA at any given time that say they can truly predict where a ball will go based on trajectory out of the shooter's hand and the angle it first hits at. And even then, anticipating those things doesn't guarantee it if you're up against another player that's a great rebounder and can do the same thing. And again...this still has more to do with the rebounder than the shooter. Nobody is intentionally taking shots to miss a certain way. They take shots that have the best chance of going in the hoop and it's left to the rebounder to anticipate where the ball is going.

I understand the idea...I just disagree that it's a useful stat.

[IWantAKouki]

You might not be dismissing it, but I am.

The only factors I can determine that are influenced by the shooter are:

(1) whether he waits until rebounders are in position

Number one is definitely valid. Out of rhythm, unexpected, perhaps contested jumpers early in the shot clock generally means that we won't have rebounders in good position. Not saying that passing up a good shot to wait for rebounders to get in position is preferred....but lots of players take BAD shots when rebounders aren't in position, and that is a bad thing. See: CJ Miles.

[catfish]

I think the loss of Dion is as big as the loss of Kyrie. We might complain about his shot selection but there is no question as the last few games have demonstrated we are not the same when he is not on the floor. He draws a lot of attention from the opposing team allowing our bigs to wonder around and collect garbage via the assist or off the wild shot. He is definately worthy of a top pick although Drummond may end up being more valuable in the end.

[Tecumseh]

From MSB

"Talking to Dion, he wants to play [Saturday], but I just don't see it, watching him walk,'' Scott said. "The other thing is, I've always believed that when a player comes back, he has to have a full day of practice, too. His first chance of doing that would be Monday. So we'll see how it goes.''

[Cavatt]

One thing he does that might help is taking the 3 behind The screen instead of wide open. That means 2 defenders are out of the paint.

[Lottery God]

From MSB

"Talking to Dion, he wants to play [Saturday], but I just don't see it, watching him walk,'' Scott said. "The other thing is, I've always believed that when a player comes back, he has to have a full day of practice, too. His first chance of doing that would be Monday. So we'll see how it goes.''

He may not be back until the end of next week or later. He had a pretty severe ankle sprain from the looks of it when it happened. I wouldn't be surprised if both Kyrie and Dion come back in the same game, but I think that Dion will come back 2-3 games before Kyrie does.

[Jon]

I understand the idea...I just disagree that it's a useful stat.

Oh, of course, but even the crappiest of stats can suggest something. And Kobe is the sort of player that you know when he starts shaking and baking that he's going to shoot, he's going to draw help defenders away from the rim, and if he takes a little care he can shoot when his guys are ready to go after the board.

But this is all conjecture, not proof.

It can also be explained by the fact that Howard and Gasol have a huge advantage over most other front lines in the league, that they spend a lot of time in the paint, maybe defenses are zoning the Lakers a lot, maybe the Lakers emphasize crashing the boards over getting back in transition, etc, etc.

That's conjecture too, not proof.

So, there may be something to the "Kobe assist" like the author suggests, but thanks to his shoddy work, that's about all we can say.