Dion Waiters

[RchfldCavRaised]

Dion looked terrible. When he checked in, in the first half, it was his horrible D, then turnover to Deng, then foul-and1 on Robinson that solely erased a 10 point lead Kyrie and Tristan had worked to establish. Chicago also posted him up quite a few times with Rip and Deng... whichever of the wings he got stuck guarding, and Dion was indifferent when they backed him down. From there, his body language was nonchalant and I thought Kyrie kinda fed off that in the first quarter while off the ball looking to compliment Dion. Kyrie never got reengaged after moving off the ball. This is a concern of mine.

I saw alot of hollow stats from him in the second half. Even while getting those hollow stats, he still took horrible shots (step back air ball 3 from 22ft with a loaded shot clock).

He drove a little bit, and could get to the rim even while Thibs was imploring guys to "dig" (will Thibs ever shut up during games) so that was encouraging, but he doesnt go up to finish through contact still. He tries to avoid the contact with the ball as opposed to going through defenders with his shot and he initiates contact at the rim with his body alot, and refs are still not giving him those.

Byron is trying to get him going by putting the ball in his hands, even while Livingston is out there, regardless of who is in the backcourt with him, and I would like to see him work on his off ball game a little. Still just standing around when he doesnt have the ball on O.

[kidduck]

The least bit of adversity that Dion encounters appears to send him into a bad funk. When he doesn't get a call he thinks he deserves, or loses the ball on an out of control move or the guy he's guarding scores on a good move, he mentally checks out. Certain to follow are hopeless launched , settle type shots with someone in his face early in the shot clock, and/or half-hearted defense .

Even if Scott can convince him to stop whining about calls, refs can read the body language plain as a elementary school primer. Keep acting like a brat and the refs will keep treating him like one.

It's also clear he doesn't like coming off the bench. Nothing wrong with that. Now he just needs to learn that he needs to up his play and attitude to EARN those starter/ end of tight game minutes.

AC often says the NBA is a mans' league. Dion should heed those words.

[Jon]

Dion stands in a corner when he doesn't have the ball, and then tries to force something when he does - leading to all those tough shots.

Can he and Kyrie exist in a ball movement offense? When are they going to start trying?

[chrisrich91]

Dion stands in a corner when he doesn't have the ball, and then tries to force something when he does - leading to all those tough shots.

Can he and Kyrie exist in a ball movement offense? When are they going to start trying?

This is on Scott and is making me progressively more nervous about his ability to develop our youngsters.

I'm not seeing any development that I would attribute to Scott in any of the young guys. Some of the guys have improved, but those are improvements that would happen under any regime just from the game slowing down, adjusting to what they can get away with at this level, etc.

[narbar32]

Dion stands in a corner when he doesn't have the ball, and then tries to force something when he does - leading to all those tough shots.

Can he and Kyrie exist in a ball movement offense? When are they going to start trying?

This is on Scott and is making me progressively more nervous about his ability to develop our youngsters.

I'm not seeing any development that I would attribute to Scott in any of the young guys. Some of the guys have improved, but those are improvements that would happen under any regime just from the game slowing down, adjusting to what they can get away with at this level, etc.

Both of you guys hit the exact things that I have been thinking watching these games.

This whole situation is causing me to sour a bit on Byron Scott, a coach who could do no wrong in my eyes up to this point.

Nothing is changing for the better in terms of our backcourt dynamics. I'm not even seeing glimpses of progress. This is especially surprising to me given two specific facts/ideas: 1) Byron Scott's history of successfully developing young guards; and 2) that Byron Scott himself was so keen on getting Dion Waiters on this team.

Dion's "confidence" or "swagger" looks to me like it could just as easily be described as basketball insecurity. That "chip on your shoulder" and "me against the world" mentality seems to manifest itself in him constantly either completely forcing things when he's trying to prove his haters wrong or sulking and just hanging back when the ball is elsewhere, as has been the case since he got here. It seems to only be getting more pronounced though, rather than being addressed. And to me, the benching isn't "addressing" the problem; that's the easy and obvious response. Anybody can come up with that as the "answer" for getting through to a player; I would hope that Byron could get through to Dion (and Kyrie) in some more meaningful and effective way. It doesn't appear to be happening so far, though.

Dion and Kyrie on the court at the same time does NOTHING for this offense. It actually inhibits any sort of offensive flow. Sure, even good offensive teams will sometimes look bad against the Bulls' defensive scheme, but this offense ALWAYS looks haphazard, with points usually coming as the result of iso play, the occasional run-out in transition, and bad, not-open, unplanned-for shots that just happen to go in. Rarely does anything look like the product of sound design. Dion and Kyrie out there together exclusively means that either of them will be a non-factor for a possession, effectively limiting the offense to 4 on 5, with the additional problems of our other 3 players usually being less than great offensive talents who suck at setting picks and creating passing lanes.

Dion forces his dribble over and over again until he either gets past his man (good), gives up the ball and gives up on trying for that possession (bad), or forces up an ugly contested jumper (worst). Kyrie simply waits in the meantime. When Kyrie has the ball, he certainly does a lot better in isolation, but Dion likewise is completely uninvolved. Where are the curls off screens? Where are the backdoor cuts? Where the fuck are the "Princeton offense principles" supposedly at play, or really any offensive principles whatsoever?

The Cavs wanted this. Byron Scott wanted this. Two primary ballhandlers... each taking pressure off of the other... each able to attack and put pressure on the defense from different spots on the floor... dynamically working off of one another and keeping the defense on its heels and guessing. What we have instead, however, is two redundant small guards... one much better offensively than the other, but each simply attacking the defense in the most predictable fashion while the other takes himself out of the offense and stands on the perimeter... where every instance of one going on the attack and the other going to sleep is entirely telegraphed, requiring only that the defense simply shift it's focus as it happens. And worse yet, it only seems to be getting worse, even after and possibly partly because of the lineup change.

What say you, Byron? Grant? Is this what you guys had in mind? If Dion ends up our 6th man, fine. Top five picks have ended up worse than that. And it could end up being more of a function of already having Kyrie than Dion just never being good enough to start (and really, despite his weaknesses, even I wouldn't argue that Dion as a rookie doesn't look capable of being a solid starter in this league). But there's just no way I'll buy that that's what this FO and coach had in mind the whole time.

[MRMsix6]

But there's just no way I'll buy that that's what this FO and coach had in mind the whole time.

36 games in? Something like 20 in which both Kyrie and Dion both played? I doubt they would disagree with you. It's a tired cliche to call it a process, but it is. We're just getting into it.

[pl4tinum]

If he develops our youngsters too fast, we won't be able to tank, silly!!

[Jon]

36 games in? Something like 20 in which both Kyrie and Dion both played? I doubt they would disagree with you. It's a tired cliche to call it a process, but it is. We're just getting into it.

Show me some progress? Show me they are even trying?

If we take too long to develop our young players, they'll be breaking out 7 years in the future on their third team ...

[narbar32]

36 games in? Something like 20 in which both Kyrie and Dion both played? I doubt they would disagree with you. It's a tired cliche to call it a process, but it is. We're just getting into it.

I get it, I really do, but you know that this sort of response to the goings ons is only marginally more useful than the "get a grip; it's only a sport" sort of stuff.

It's always a process. I'm only talking about this point in the process and what can be gleaned from it going forward. The very idea of any process typically connotes a future desired or at least predictable outcome to be birthed from the process. To me, even accounting for limited games played, I'm not seeing the sort of progress or developments that would suggest the desired future result of the process. There can be setbacks and small victories along the way, and I am aware of the fluidity of these things, but right now I'm just not seeing what I would have hoped to be seeing by this point.

If Dion were a traditional off-guard, this likely wouldn't be an issue. And if our rookie was a big man instead, we'd be having a whole different set of discussions on how he's doing, how he fits, and where to go next in terms of building the team, including finding a starting SG of the future. But this team, coach and FO collaboratively, decided to select a guy with combo-guardish attributes and skillset to start next to Kyrie going forward. It's thus concerning that the reservations many of us amateurs already had regarding the fit next to Kyrie, even before seeing them play together, are looking well-founded so far as they actually do play together.

[MRMsix6]

Show me some progress? Show me they are even trying?

If we take too long to develop our young players, they'll be breaking out 7 years in the future on their third team ...

Player development is not always linear. As if Tristan isn't a glaring reminder of this. People were ready to trade him for a second rounder a few weeks ago and pining for guys like Bismack Biyombo. I wish we saw noticeable improvement every game, every week, or even every month, but that's not how things work in the real world.

I agree with pretty much everything narbar said, until he started questioning whether this is Grant/Scott's vision of our backcourt less than half way into year one of their tandem. Of course it isn't. But it wasn't about where they are now, it's about the next 3-5 years at a minimum. Hundreds of games. We're at 36.

[Jack Brickman]

Worth remembering that it took LeBron and Wade over a season to get used to playing together, and that was regardless of the fact that both were veterans, great passers, and two of the best players in the league. The fact is, there's always going to need to be major adjustments any time you put two guys with similar skills on the court. I think they'll tend to happen more over the off-season than during the actual season because, naturally, it's a lot easier to look at the entire body of work and address the major problems over a long off-season than it is game to game when you still have to worry about opponents at every practice.

Obviously improvements need to be made, but I think it's far too soon to call the whole thing a failure after no few games.

[Kizzle]

This is on Scott and is making me progressively more nervous about his ability to develop our youngsters.

I'm not seeing any development that I would attribute to Scott in any of the young guys. Some of the guys have improved, but those are improvements that would happen under any regime just from the game slowing down, adjusting to what they can get away with at this level, etc.

Scott doesnt have a track record of doing what were asking him to do. Yes hes taken over bad teams and turned them good, but those teams had talent....as of now we dont.

Thats just my opinion. Im waiting for someoe to hit me with a post they researched that proves me wrong.

But im just going by what I remember

[Jon]

Player development is not always linear. As if Tristan isn't a glaring reminder of this. People were ready to trade him for a second rounder a few weeks ago and pining for guys like Bismack Biyombo. I wish we saw noticeable improvement every game, every week, or even every month, but that's not how things work in the real world.

This ignores the fact that Tristan was *trying* to improve - the results were up & down as you expect from a young player, but it's hard to develop if you don't at least try to work on your weaknesses. About the most you can say in Dion's case, is that they've identified other areas of Dion's game they want to work on, and that his ability to fit in to the offensive system simply isn't on the radar yet.

That doesn't make me feel much better about the situation, though.

[KB]

Read this, from hoopsdata blog. It's about Tyreke Evans but it applies to Dion

pretty much players with these skill sets do not decline from the production of their rookie season except in some rare circumstances.

http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/...eke-Evans.aspx

The Rare Decline of Tyreke Evans
by Blake Murphy 21. November 2012 07:13


Tyreke Evans is putting himself among some unique company. In this case, I don’t mean that as a compliment.

Evans currently has the unique distinction of being one of a small group of players in the three-point era to have failed to match his rookie performance in his next three seasons.

That is, Evans looks to be one of a rare group of players to peak as a rookie.

To determine this, I used Basketball-Reference’s Player Season Finder to find all qualified rookies (in terms of minutes) in the three-point era. I then pulled the second, third and fourth seasons for each of these players to determine who else had failed to meet the bar they set as a rookie.

To avoid including great players who may have fluctuated around a strong level of play, I took out all players who had a Win Shares Per 48 (WS/48) of greater than 0.100 in subsequent seasons (this is a somewhat random cut off, as all cut offs are, but 0.100 roughly splits the league at 150 players). In essence, I eliminated any players who remained “starting quality” beyond their rookie years to find players who began as capable rookies but failed to remain effective.

For Evans, he appeared to be a superstar in the making as a rookie. He was just the fourth player ever to average 20-5-5 as a rookie, joining Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Oscar Robertson. He had an 18.2 Player Efficiency Rating and was worth 5.4 wins according to Basketball-Reference. In his sophomore year, though, he fell off a cliff, coming in at just 1.6 wins, a 14.4 PER, and declining efficiency across the board. He had a slight rebound to 2.7 wins and a 16.4 PER last year, though his rates didn’t match his rookie season. And so far this year, his WS/48 is nearly identical to his terrible sophomore year, with his PER at a career low 13.9.

So how rare is it for a player to appear a potential star as a rookie, only to become a hardly usable player in the three years thereafter?

I found eight such players, and the list isn’t pretty.

Sam Mitchell - a 26-year old rookie, Mitchell basically settled in as who he would be right away, though he would have small spikes in Year 6 and Year 9.

Manute Bol - had his highest WS/48 as a rookie and only remained an effective player for his first three seasons, primarily since his terrible offense negated much of his shot-blocking prowess.

Ron Mercer - using basic stats, he was an adequate player for some time, but advanced stats show that his usefulness was based almost entirely on volume. He would never post a league-average PER and his rookie season was by far his best in terms of total contributions (WS/48).

Courtney Lee - has remained on the periphery of usefulness thanks to some decent defensive acumen and floor spacing, but his rookie season was his best thus far. In his fifth year, the Celtics mark his fourth team and, while he’s off to a very rough start, there’s certainly evidence he can stick as an outside-shooting defensive rotation player.

Popeye Jones - had a great rookie season and didn’t drop off too much in subsequent years, though his fifth season (with the Raptors, of course) was an injury-shortened disaster. He bounced back afterwards and essentially produced at the same level in Years 1-4 and Years 6-9, so he probably doesn’t fit here.

Herb Williams - had a spike after the fourth year with a strong fifth and sixth season, but once again fell off until an odd resurgence in small-minute efficiency with the Knicks at age 34. If he were a guard, he’d be a nice glimmer of hope for Kings fans, but it’s not clear if a guard has the same potential for a bounce back.

Danny Vranes - great as a rookie, good as a sophomore, okay as a junior, and on his way out of the league shortly after. He fits the narrative of a rookie-peaker best, enjoying a steady decline thereafter.

Tyreke Evans - his fourth year isn’t done so maybe it’s not fair to include him yet. But a few notes on how Evans has changed since his rookie year, courtesy of his Hoopdata page:

*In Evans worst seasons, he’s shot more from 16-23 feet. Not a surprise here, as he is a terrible shooter from this range, hovering around 30%. It’s probably in his best interest to give up the long-two pull-up (less than 20% of these shots are assisted).

*Evans hovers around 60% at the rim but, not surprisingly, got there much less often in his two down years. This has also led to steadily declining free throw rates.

*He’s decided to try and get himself going more this year, posting a career-low assist rate of 17%. He has also used his penetrating ability to create for others less, assisting on only half as many threes as usual.

So not only is Evans in unique company as a player who peaked as a rookie, but he also appears to be trending in the wrong direction. This isn’t a matter of shots just not falling, but an apparently declining skill set and an eroding basketball IQ.

There’s certainly still time for Evans to turn things around, but teams should be wary of tendering him a sizable restricted free agent contract this summer unless he shows a turnaround between now and then

[KingDelonte13]

This ignores the fact that Tristan was *trying* to improve - the results were up & down as you expect from a young player, but it's hard to develop if you don't at least try to work on your weaknesses. About the most you can say in Dion's case, is that they've identified other areas of Dion's game they want to work on, and that his ability to fit in to the offensive system simply isn't on the radar yet.

That doesn't make me feel much better about the situation, though.

So now Dion isn't even trying to work on his weaknesses, or Coach Scott is not working on Dion's real weaknesses. I love these assumptions. We praise the coaching when one player improves but bash the coaching when another player isn't improving as fast as we would all like. Patience. Patience. Patience. You can't judge this regime and this coach off of three seasons when the best player on the team is a 20 year old kid, and your bench consists of D-league scraps and Luke freaking Walton.