To Tank or not to Tank, that is the question

[B3team]

Wiggins looks the most LeBron-esque player coming out of high school since LeBron, so there's understandable hype for him. But he's only coming in the 2014 draft, along with a couple other projected studs. Unfortunately by that time, if our front office is doing even a remotely competent job, we will be far away from the lottery and hopefully playoff bound.

So let's look towards the 2013 draft. Most of you seem dead set on tanking, but I'm not sure where that will get you. In this year's draft you have the other Zeller brother, Shabazz, Nerlens Noel, a couple other centers and average players after that. Even with the top 3 I just mentioned, none scream "superstar potential", and there is no consensus #1 like virtually every other draft year. This is a bad thing.

For most teams, the reason you tank is to get superstars. Virtually all superstars (if any) are drafted between #1-3 in the draft. Sometimes #4 or #5 in an especially deep draft year. The lottery is in place so that any of the bottom 14 teams have a shot at #1-3. If you draft at #6 or higher, the odds you have a future all-star are fairly low. So if we're not getting an all-star in the draft, at that point aren't you just better off in free agency or making trades with your other assets? The Cavs are lucky in that they already HAVE their superstar and a seemingly competent second option in Waiters.

At the very worst, whomever we draft in 2013 should be decent enough to start on next year's squad, but after that we really shouldn't be looking for any MAJOR pieces through the draft, making tanking unnecessary.

It's too early to say there are no future all stars in this draft class. Come tournament time, Poythress and Noel could look like studs.

[Futuredome]

Poythress(even thought I can't stand Kentucky) is a real intriguing player. Noel, not so much.

[ArchieBunker7]

Any love Noel is still getting is coming from people who don't watch the team play. He's riding the on the coat tails of success that Davis had. Coming in, people really wanted the kid to be Anthony Davis part II, but it just isn't there. Davis was a special player there, Noel not so much. He doesn't have anywhere near the skill set and fluidity that Davis had.

For whatever teams has that TOR pick come draft time, you know they have to be hoping and praying TOR finishes in the top 3 of the lottery this year. You'd much rather have that pick in 2014. For all the hype of Noel, Shabazz, etc. there are clearly no superstars coming out of this draft. All Stars? Ya, that's possible. But, that's not good enough for the type of value you want with a top 3 player.

[ArchieBunker7]

Jones said he and his teammates take their cues from Varejao and Gibson.

“They've been here through the winning and the losing,” he said. “They're the heart and soul of the team. They make sure everybody's spirits are high and everybody is still sticking together and getting better every practice. It's their demeanor. Nothing really fazes them. It keeps you calm when you see the leaders of the team calm.”

I think this gets overlooked a bit in this whole tanking thing. As an athlete, you play to win. Period. When you lose more than win, it can get frustrating. You question yourself, teammates, coaches, systems...everything. When you lose at alarming rates, especially after being accustomed to winning at such an optimium level, you have to wonder how the young guys are going to handle it. Players don't want to hear fans and media talking about tanking, I can promise you that.

The two guys that get mentioned the most as tradeable commodities are the ones that have seemingly kept the young guys balanced. You have to temper your emotions, not getting too high or too low, and I'm not sure that is possible without Andy and Boobie. Even a HC with as much rep as Byron Scott can only do and say so much. You trade these two and who is left as a veteran mentor/leader for the rest of this group? You trade these guys, and make no mistake, this team gets even worse. Much worse. Who are the leaders ready to step up in the absence of these two? Luke Walton? CJ Miles? I love Kyrie, but I'm not sure he's ready to be a bonafide, true leader yet. After him, I'm not sure there is even a legit candidate. That's kind of scary.

[Dr. Gymbo]

For whatever teams has that TOR pick come draft time, you know they have to be hoping and praying TOR finishes in the top 3 of the lottery this year. You'd much rather have that pick in 2014. For all the hype of Noel, Shabazz, etc. there are clearly no superstars coming out of this draft. All Stars? Ya, that's possible. But, that's not good enough for the type of value you want with a top 3 player.

IIRC, the Toronto pick is top three protected.

[B3team]

Poythress(even thought I can't stand Kentucky) is a real intriguing player. Noel, not so much.

Wait until tournament time, coach Calipari is good at developing talent. I bet Noel looks very good by the end of the season.

[ArchieBunker7]

Wait until tournament time, coach Calipari is good at developing talent. I bet Noel looks very good by the end of the season.

This is very true. Cal is great at moulding a chunk of clay into a nice piece of pottery. But, Davis just had a ready made skill set that Noel just can never be, no matter how much shaping Coach Cal does. He will undoubtedly be better than he is now, but he's not the game changer Davis was. Davis could barely score a point and still be the MVP of a game. I'm not sure Noel ever gets there.

[ArchieBunker7]

IIRC, the Toronto pick is top three protected.

Yep. That's what I was saying. You hope that pick gets carried over to the 2014 draft, where the outlook of talent seems to be much, much higher. If it was my pick, I'm praying TOR keeps it this coming draft, improves enough to get out of the basement for the following season, and take my chances on them still being a lottery team in 2014, so I get the pick in a much stronger draft.

[RchfldCavRaised]

Yep. That's what I was saying. You hope that pick gets carried over to the 2014 draft, where the outlook of talent seems to be much, much higher. If it was my pick, I'm praying TOR keeps it this coming draft, improves enough to get out of the basement for the following season, and take my chances on them still being a lottery team in 2014, so I get the pick in a much stronger draft.

Everything depends on if they can move Calderon and Bargs.

If they move those two, they start running and winning this year and that pick becomes a 9-14 range. Colangelo is trying his hardest to move both according to reports.

[KCOTT]

what if noel doesn't even come out this year? reminds me of harrison barnes' freshman year

[ArchieBunker7]

Everything depends on if they can move Calderon and Bargs.

If they move those two, they start running and winning this year and that pick becomes a 9-14 range. Colangelo is trying his hardest to move both according to reports.

Interesting. I believe they were mentioned as one of the teams in the whole recent Gasol trade rumors the Lakers shot down. Would make sense to me. Calderon gives great depth at PG and fills in for the injured Nash, while Bargs fills the Gasol void, stretching the floor a bit more than Pau.

what if noel doesn't even come out this year? reminds me of harrison barnes' freshman year

This is true, but are you even allowed to stay more than one year at UK??

[shoes22]

Isn't the main reason Barnes stayed another year in college was to try and improve his draft stock? Obviously that plan backfired on him.

[Lottery God]

One reason why so many guys stayed in college during the 2011 draft was because of the lockout and guys were unsure of whether or not there would even be a 2011-2012 season. However, by doing this, nearly all prospects that skipped out on the 2011-2012 draft may now be regretting it. Barnes, Sullinger, and Perry Jones were all tagged for the top 5 or so, but we then saw one slip to 8 (not that bad, but still), one slip to the 20s (Sullinger), and then the last one slip to the last pick in the 1st round (PJIII). Perry Jones probably threw some seven-figure amount out the window when he stayed in college one more year.

[NarlCavs]

Teams around the league don't seem to be too thrilled with the 2013 draft so that may be a good opportunity for the Cavs to pick up an additional lottery pick for this draft since they likely won't be valued as highly. You might not get a franchise player but you can get another quality young piece to build with---and the Cavs need all the talent they can get. They Kyrie pick was acquired in part because of low rating of the 2011 draft.

It's also very obvious the Cavs are tanking another season. There should be no talk about contention or when they might contend either. This team is so far away from getting close to that point and is in need of tons of quality talent before even considering it. I'm all for the patient rebuild but next year will be time to do a little more to upgrade the roster and depth. This will also only help the young players already here. I don't expect huge signings or giving up assets for veteran backups, but reasonable moves can be made without disrupting the plan rather than doing basically nothing like the last 2 offseasons.
It's still very early in the building process and I'm not giving up but I do not see anything close to being in place that could lead the Cavs to championship contention in the next decade. Irving is a definite piece. Waiters shows signs but has a ways to go and Thompson and Zeller might just be role players or even backups on a good team.

[mhi]

For those worried about the 2014 draft.....

Unless we sign a MAX contract this offseason, We WILL again be a lottery team next year.

And if Varajao is delt for youth, and or picks, we will be picking top 7 in the 'talent rich' 2014 draft.