Plans for Cap Space in Summer 2013

[Zone]

Maybe you are able to bring back Ellington for the 1 year QO ($3.1M) and not worry about a multi-year extension for him at this point.

I think this is likely

Then maybe in 2014 you decline the option on the final year of Gee's contract, and assuming you haven't taken on additional salary (via trades using your cap space or through other FA signings), maybe you are able to exercise the option on Varejao's final year AND still have max cap space. It will be cutting it close though, depending on exactly where the Cavs' draft picks fall, and where the salary cap figure comes in, and how much Speights gets paid. My back of the envelope calculations put the team salary at just about $40M, but this figure excludes Gee and includes only 9 players (Varejao, Irving, Thompson, Waiters, Zeller, 2013 first rounder #1, 2013 first round #2, 2014 first rounder, and Speights), which cuts it very close considering a 10 year max salary in 2014 will be at least $20M.

Without Speights and Gee on the books in 2014 ... and assuming Varejao's $9+million is still fully on the books ... we'd have $33,327,195 committed to Varejao, Kyrie, Tristan, Dion, Zeller, the 8th pick in 2013, the 25th pick in 2013, the 17th pick in 2014 ... giving us 8 players against the cap. I think this is what Douglar's table in a previous post indicated as well. With just those 8 players, you'd also need to have 4 Minimum Salary cap holds ($507,336 each). So the 8 players and 4 cap holds would give us $35,356,539. If the salary cap is set at $60M, we'd have $24,643,461 in cap space. With that $60M salary cap, a 10 year Max Free Agent salary would begin at $21,000,000 for someone like LeBron/Wade/Bosh (***note: that number would be higher for guys like Kobe, Dirk, Melo, etc. because of their previous year's salary).

So we sign Bosh ( ) that summer for a salary of $21M, giving us a payroll of $54,327,195 for Bosh, Varejao, Kyrie, Tristan, Dion, Zeller, 8th pick, 25th pick, 17th pick. Would still need to add 3 Minimum Salary player holds to $54,327,195 ... so we'd have $55,849,203 against a $60M cap. The difference (plus, I think, one of the Min Salary slots or $4,658,133), then, is what we could afford to already have towards a guy like Speights.

In this example, getting back to this summer ... I believe the most you could offer Speights is $4.9M in 2013 .. $4,641,148 in 2014 .. $4.9M in 2015 .. and $5,120,500 in 2016 .. 4 years, $19,561,648

So my guess is they re-sign Speights for (non-tax payer) MLE type money ($5-6M/yr), re-sign or otherwise bring back Ellington, Livingston, and Walton, try to sign Greg Oden guaranteed for 2013-14 with a team option for 2014-15 (this complicates things further, but if he stays healthy and plays well and you want to exercise the option in 2014, you find some way to carve out the cap space), and bring in a few other guys (plus maybe actually draft someone in the second round using their own pick or Orlando's) to compete with Kevin Jones for a couple roster spots.

I almost definitely don't see Walton, Casspi, Selby and Boobie coming back. I'd take Speights at the 4yr, $19.56M deal above if he opts out, but wouldn't go much past that (2014 cap space AND talent wise). I think Ellington will stay on with his Option. Jones can come back and battle it out in camp. Like your thinking on Oden. Don't think we use either our 2nd or Orlando's. Can see Grant packaging them along with Miles and/or cap space for a vet like Jefferson, Salmons, or Marion and a pick during the draft. I like Livingston for another year, and would give him a decent amount (more than he might be worth) to keep him around on a 1 year contract.

Irving/Livingston
Waiters/Ellington
Gee/Vet FA
Thompson/Speights/Jones
Zeller/Varejao/Oden

Toss in a couple of #1 picks and I think we're in the playoffs. We'd also have the ammunition (and better understanding of what the summer of 2014 could hold) to add some talent and continue to augment the roster.

EDIT: Should have mentioned another consideration mentioned by others...the 90% minimum team salary rule, which is another reason for re-signing Speights. If you decide not to re-sign him because he is too expensive, you are going to have to sign someone else. Maybe you can find a vet willing to sign a one year deal, but if that's your goal, the market is going to be very limited (I'm sure Jamison will be available), and it's going to be difficult filling out the roster with enough salary to get to the 90% threshold.

You don't need to hit the 90%. It will be charged at the end of the season, and the difference would go back to the players.

[polishph]

Fuck living below LeBron James's knees. Sign Josh Smith to the max.

Man I hope you are joking!

[BimboColesHair]

Man I hope you are joking!

He's not. Same guy who wanted to trade for him this deadline and give him the 5 year max.

[faughta0509]

It may sound dumb, but this is the kind of number crunching that's made me like the NBA a lot more. I love the strategy of managing cap space and constructing trades that help others manage team salary while adding value through players, picks, or future cap space flexibility. Well done articulating some of that, Zone.

[oasis05]

I think the cavs should resign gibson particularly if they draft otto porter. With another point forward it opens up the door for gibson to play his game of defending point guards and hitting his open shots. Right now the cavs have more need for play making which is why gibson has taken a back seat, and of course his injuries.

Irving/Gibson
Waiters/Ellington/Livingston
Porter[cavs pick]/Gee/Walton
Thompson/Speights/Plumlee[lakers pick]
Varejao/Oden/Zeller/Jones

I don't think we'll get any free agents, just don't want to lose anyone. Build through the draft, and maintain the current team. I don't want to drop Livingston or Walton because if Irving goes down we need play making. Doesn't make sense to have a play making point guard who won't see court time with irving. gibson will come cheap, and doesn't have to play.

[Jack Brickman]

It may sound dumb, but this is the kind of number crunching that's made me like the NBA a lot more. I love the strategy of managing cap space and constructing trades that help others manage team salary while adding value through players, picks, or future cap space flexibility. Well done articulating some of that, Zone.

Same here, especially now that the new CBA has forced basically everyone to play by the same rules. I think the Lakers and Nets may be the only two exceptions. However, the Nets have just about the most incompetent GM in the world and are significantly overpaying for a team that's ceiling is probably the second round, while the Lakers just lost the best owner in sports and his son thus far seems nowhere near as good.

Plus, neither of those two teams have truly had to deal with the new tax yet, and it will be interesting to see what happens when they do.

[oasis05]

Paul Millsap is a free agent after this season. I have a great deal of interest in him. If Speights is this effective I can imagine how Millsap would do. someone who is actually an efficient offensive player. Millsap can stick that open jumper, pounds the offensive boards hard, and while not a great defender is much more active than speights. Lacks speights size, but packs more punch per square inch. I'd rather give millsap 10 million than speights 5. Sure, millsap may effect our free agency window, but who really believes in free agency? No there is not a santa claus. If the cavs want someone in the 2014 free agency they can do a sign and trade.

Millsap/Thompson
Varejao/Oden/Zeller is just an animal front court. The manimal smiles on us. I think milsap is a perfect fit.

[drewz05]

Paul Millsap is a free agent after this season. I have a great deal of interest in him. If Speights is this effective I can imagine how Millsap would do. someone who is actually an efficient offensive player. Millsap can stick that open jumper, pounds the offensive boards hard, and while not a great defender is much more active than speights. Lacks speights size, but packs more punch per square inch. I'd rather give millsap 10 million than speights 5. Sure, millsap may effect our free agency window, but who really believes in free agency? No there is not a santa claus. If the cavs want someone in the 2014 free agency they can do a sign and trade.

Apparently you do?

[oasis05]

I was referring to the unmentioned one. I think millsap is as good as anyone else in the 2014 free agency, and if the cavs have plans to use it then I'd go for millsap now rather than wait.

[RonHarperFan]

If we can get Pau Gasol for like a S&T with Speights, we gotta do that, right? The Lakers might want to reduce their tax bill for the year and Gasol is in the last deal of an admittedly overpriced contract. We start Tristan at the 4 and Gasol at the 5. If Gasol has a good year, we would have bird rights on him and could hopefully keep him for around 10m a year on a short term new deal.

[oasis05]

Pau Gasol will be 33 years old next season. He's just too old. Gotta get players at least under 30.

[jwalker1399]

I was referring to the unmentioned one. I think millsap is as good as anyone else in the 2014 free agency, and if the cavs have plans to use it then I'd go for millsap now rather than wait.

Cavs are invested in TT. They aren't going to pay someone to take his spot. No chance......

[cavsfan1985]

Pau Gasol will be 33 years old next season. He's just too old. Gotta get players at least under 30.

Why? If it is one year deal, gives us a good player to par with Irving for a playoff run next year, and it also gives us a good big man in 2014 when we sign a max free agent. It is ok to have some veterans on the team, Gasols game is shooting, and pick and pop, even as he ages he could still give us 18 - 9 from the Center potions, and would pair great with TT.

[Scholar]

Gasol will be paid 19 million next year. He is not a free agent. He will be a free agent the summer of 2014, not 2013. I don't know about you, but I don't see 19 million as cheap. There is no reason to be looking in that direction.

[BKnight's Ankle]

I think the cavs should resign gibson particularly if they draft otto porter. With another point forward it opens up the door for gibson to play his game of defending point guards and hitting his open shots. Right now the cavs have more need for play making which is why gibson has taken a back seat, and of course his injuries.

Irving/Gibson
Waiters/Ellington/Livingston
Porter[cavs pick]/Gee/Walton
Thompson/Speights/Plumlee[lakers pick]
Varejao/Oden/Zeller/Jones

I don't think we'll get any free agents, just don't want to lose anyone. Build through the draft, and maintain the current team. I don't want to drop Livingston or Walton because if Irving goes down we need play making. Doesn't make sense to have a play making point guard who won't see court time with irving. gibson will come cheap, and doesn't have to play.

I-I can't bring myself to say it..

I-In the east...that's..a..p-p..p-p..playoff team