2018 Draft Prospects Thread

[OptimusPrime]

Every player has flaws. No one is perfect coming out of college. It's the type of flaws he has that I'm interested in. Can they be corrected? If a guy is not elusive or isn't quick enough to get through NFL running lanes, there isn't anything you can do with the guy. You don't learn that stuff. If a guy needs to get better at mentally accepting shorter gains instead of dancing around trying to hit a home run, that can be corrected. He has everything that can't be taught. Fix his flaws, and his upside is ridiculous. He's 230 lbs. 4.3. One man can't tackle him in the open field. That's why I'm tempted.

I like Fitzpatrick too. Funny enough, I really don't care for these QBs. I would be thrilled to get Barkley and Minkah. Not taking a QB just scares the shit out of me though, even if I don't like the options.

There are other solid backs that can come in and hit the hole like Crowell does and be productive for us. I get the value argument. I've just had enough of value. I want to aim higher than that. Unless we find the next Tom Brady, whatever QB we get is going to need high end weapons if this team is ever going to compete for championships.

 

[Kiddo]

Michel > Barkley

I want this guy. He is gonna be a stud! I really am excited for this offseason with all the great front office additions. I think finally we'll add players that have been in discussion on here.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I prefer Guice over Barkley anyway.

 

[billmac91]

Here's how I'd rank the RBs from the past 4 drafts. Pardon the orange tint

Your elite, every down, do-it-all RBs are Freeman, Gurley, David Johnson, Elliott, Howard and Hunt. I think Gordon is a notch below, he's treated as such but has never rushed for over 4.0 yards/carry in his 3 years. Lot of production, needs to be more efficient though IMO.

Kamara is obviously incredible, but I don't think I'd put him in that category because I'm not sure if he could hold up to the 250+ carries those guys get every year. He belongs more in an elite offensive weapon category. Coleman and McCaffery are used in similar ways, they'd be a notch below.

If I were a fan of their team, I'd be excited for Fournette, Cook, Drake, and Henry. Alex Collins sneaky had a very good year for Baltimore too. Hyde just had his best year as a pro.

Nice list....

One comment I'd make going to 2016...if you take the OSU homer glasses off (and I'm a huge OSU fan), Zeke undeniably benefited from the Cowboy offensive line as well as not having to share the backfield with an incumbent starter. All that to say, if I were a GM going forward today, I'd actually have Derrick Henry above Zeke. In fairness, a lot of that is off-field issues (beyond the trouble Zeke always finds himself in, he got WAY out of shape coming into this season). While their rookie seasons are completely skewed based on usage, I like Henry more today.

Which would be more evidence for the reason to not take Barkley with a top 4 pick.

 

[Lee]

Alexander is a hell of a prospect, has some issues, but presents a pretty good second round value.

Really want to give a full work through of the character though.

I dont like Jaire's size, but scouts seem to love his athletic ability and fluidity. Its not that Alexander is small, its jut he isnt big, but if he lasts to the 2nd round, he would be much needed secondary help.

As for character issues, have not heard anything, what have you heard?

 

[AZ_]

I dont like Jaire's size, but scouts seem to love his athletic ability and fluidity. Its not that Alexander is small, its jut he isnt big, but if he lasts to the 2nd round, he would be much needed secondary help.

As for character issues, have not heard anything, what have you heard?

He's just a pretty outspoken dude who ruffles feathers.

Certainly nothing I know enough about to dox him for, but something to consider. He's never been suspended/in trouble legally, though.

 

[Los216]

He's just a pretty outspoken dude who ruffles feathers.

Certainly nothing I know enough about to dox him for, but something to consider. He's never been suspended/in trouble legally, though.

The Browns don't want outspoken dudes who ruffle feathers because they could end up being Johnny Manziel or Jay Cutler. Is he affluent and does he grab his balls?

 

[billmac91]

Jaire is a pit-bull. I love him. He was banged up this season, so the hype died a bit. Coming into season McFadden at FSU was rated the #1 CB and I knew that wouldn't last.....he led CFB in picks last year and was first team All-America, but his positioning was brutal. Even last year I was pushing Jaire as a better overall talent than McFadden.

In regards to the injury, he sprained his knee in their home opener, sat 4 games, came back too soon, and the injury lingered. It just jacked up his coming out party. In the middle of it all, he also missed a game with a broken hand. He came back for Louisville's last 3 regular season games and was dominant.

I don't want to say he's Antoine Winfield, cause Winfield was next level good when it came to one on one tackling, but for his size, Jaire ain't afraid to come lay some wood. I love guys like that.....

His field awareness has always been extremely impressive to me as well....check the second punt return of the highlight reel. He sees the ball deflect off the kick coverage unit and he's there immediately to scoop the ball and go since there's no downside to him touching the ball. In another highlight he makes a pick and the receiver has him wrapped up on one leg, so he pitches it to another DB nearby with space. I think there are some questions about his character, but I think it's largely tied to his attitude on the field. My hope is once he's interviewed, the concerns actually turn into positives for him. He plays confident and cocky....but in a fun way.

His 2016 highlights are really, really fun:

 

[Urban]

Nice list....

One comment I'd make going to 2016...if you take the OSU homer glasses off (and I'm a huge OSU fan), Zeke undeniably benefited from the Cowboy offensive line as well as not having to share the backfield with an incumbent starter. All that to say, if I were a GM going forward today, I'd actually have Derrick Henry above Zeke. In fairness, a lot of that is off-field issues (beyond the trouble Zeke always finds himself in, he got WAY out of shape coming into this season). While their rookie seasons are completely skewed based on usage, I like Henry more today.

Which would be more evidence for the reason to not take Barkley with a top 4 pick.

I'd still take Zeke any day of the week.

 

[Lee]

Jaire is a pit-bull. I love him. He was banged up this season, so the hype died a bit. Coming into season McFadden at FSU was rated the #1 CB and I knew that wouldn't last.....he led CFB in picks last year and was first team All-America, but his positioning was brutal. Even last year I was pushing Jaire as a better overall talent than McFadden.

In regards to the injury, he sprained his knee in their home opener, sat 4 games, came back too soon, and the injury lingered. It just jacked up his coming out party. In the middle of it all, he also missed a game with a broken hand. He came back for Louisville's last 3 regular season games and was dominant.

I don't want to say he's Antoine Winfield, cause Winfield was next level good when it came to one on one tackling, but for his size, Jaire ain't afraid to come lay some wood. I love guys like that.....

His field awareness has always been extremely impressive to me as well....check the second punt return of the highlight reel. He sees the ball deflect off the kick coverage unit and he's there immediately to scoop the ball and go since there's no downside to him touching the ball. In another highlight he makes a pick and the receiver has him wrapped up on one leg, so he pitches it to another DB nearby with space. I think there are some questions about his character, but I think it's largely tied to his attitude on the field. My hope is once he's interviewed, the concerns actually turn into positives for him. He plays confident and cocky....but in a fun way.

His 2016 highlights are really, really fun:

I am not convinced he is around when we pick in round 2, but if he is, its a good pick from what i can tell, even if AZ is correct and he is outspoken. Someone needs to be.

 

[AZ_]

I am not convinced he is around when we pick in round 2, but if he is, its a good pick from what i can tell, even if AZ is correct and he is outspoken. Someone needs to be.

Definitely, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is outspoken too.

At the end of the day I really just don't trust their program and the coaches who run it. Thats the biggest red flag for me with Alexander and Jackson, two guys I like a heck of alot.

 

[Lee]

Definitely, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is outspoken too.

At the end of the day I really just don't trust their program and the coaches who run it. Thats the biggest red flag for me with Alexander and Jackson, two guys I like a heck of alot.

Have not really noticed Louisville has issues developing talent, I dont think they get top tier talent, but some players work out, Bridgewater before injury, Dumerville, DeVante Parker.

I really dont know enough to speak, and personally i am not high on Jackson, the accuracy concerns do scare me.

 

[Matches]

Pro-Football-Reference was early in updating its "AV" data for the 2017 season so I've been able to update my charts which compare draft slot to player value. Here's the relevant chart for running backs drafted in the last 10 years:


For running backs I consider 8 on the vertical axis to be the cutoff for a good player. Most of the players lower than that would probably considered replaceable or a backup. Here you see that the 2nd and 3rd rounds indeed have been turning out solid backs, at even a higher number than the 1st round. Interactive is here: http://bgsd.com/football/draft/rb-2008-2017.html. For data going back to 1999, see http://bgsd.com/football/draft/rb.html where you can see that the first round has more major contributors and HOF level backs.

Another way to look at it is the percent of players at or around a particular draft slot that reach certain thresholds. For purposes of the chart below, I deemed players >8 as "Solid", those >12 as "Very Good" (which could arguably be considered "elite" or at least near-elite), and < 4 as "Useless":

What we see here is that your chances of getting a near-elite level back in that 2nd-3rd round area does not drop off that much and in some areas is in fact comparable to the absolute top of the draft. That success rate is at best 25%. What the past 10 years have shown, however, is that while you can find your stud RB in those picks with the same expected rate of success, you also have a much higher rate of failure at that part of the draft. Note that even in the first round, half the players end up being "below the line" in terms of long-term successful backs.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I think value should be mentioned too. The value if both barkley and minkah for what they do is different. A true shut down corner with the versatility of Minkah is possibly the third most valuable position behind QB, and superior edge rusher. I personally really like Barkley as a prospect, but if he is there and Minkah is there, no way do I pass on Minkah, just to valuable.

Adding a versatile, ball-hawking FS who can play multiple positions, and combining him with powerful pass-rushers, is a turnover machine in waiting. Fitzpatrick is exactly what we need at the back end to give our front seven time to earn their money.

 

[AZ_]

Adding a versatile, ball-hawking FS who can play multiple positions, and combining him with powerful pass-rushers, is a turnover machine in waiting. Fitzpatrick is exactly what we need at the back end to give our front seven time to earn their money.

I’d argue that playing Fitzpatrick off the ball, where he struggles in coverage, instead of in the slot or outside as a man corner, isn’t the best use of his services.

That said, at least we’re both on board the train.