2018 Draft Prospects Thread

[SixPACK]

This and other articles have been spot on as to his off-the-field stuff.

Saban singled him out as someone who was like a son to him, a label I haven't heard all that often.

But he's truly got those leadership qualities that put him at a QB-esque level of the defense, that's too good to pass up at 4 IMO.

Really hoping the Colts don't bone this at 3. They need so much more than a corner.

Not starting shit or saying you have said you never liked Minkah, but didn't you just say how you would take Ward over him? Or rate Ward as a better CB?

Maybe I misread a handful of pages ago and don't feel like going back and reading, but pretty sure you said you would take Ward over him like <10 pgs. ago.

 

[AZ_]

Not starting shit or saying you have said you never liked Minkah, but didn't you just say how you would take Ward over him? Or rate Ward as a better CB?

Maybe I misread a handful of pages ago and don't feel like going back and reading, but pretty sure you said you would take Ward over him like <10 pgs. ago.

Ward as the pure CB/man-to-man skills.

And I still think thats the case. Both are exceptional though.

Fitzpatrick has that sort of next level leadership qualities that this team desperately needs, that's why I'm on board. That and Ward probably measuring in 5'10 or possibly under at the combine.

 

[SixPACK]

Ward as the pure CB/man-to-man skills.

And I still think thats the case. Both are exceptional though.

Fitzpatrick has that sort of next level leadership qualities that this team desperately needs, that's why I'm on board. That and Ward probably measuring in 5'10 or possibly under at the combine.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Fitz will need a little work on outside man to man coverage. He never really played outside at Bama.

But when he is into the route, he is as smart, explosive and difficult to beat as someone like Patrick Peterson or Jalen Ramsey. Combine that with excellent leadership skills, ability to play the run and always on the field no matter what.

Fitzpatrick is a no brainer. Its not even close. At worst, he becomes Eric Weddle and at his ceiling, he could easily be a total shutdown a side of the field corner.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Triplethreat I like you pal, but please stop treating your analysis as scientific fact. You didn’t prove that there’s a 60% chance that a RB taken in rounds 2-3 will be trash nor did you prove 100% of RBs drafted in round 1 will he hits

Here are my problems with you treating your analysis as proof of anything:

1. You proved that in the last 4 drafts under your odd scoring system where Joe Mixon, McKinnon, Foreman, Conner, and Drake are somehow already misses (grades of incomplete would probably help your analysis) while somehow McCaffrey is already labeled a hit.

2. There has been a string of high success in the draft for first round running backs lately. Doing an analysis in the middle of that stretch is about as bad of a look at the overall picture as you can get. Yes, for 3 years now first round RBs have paid dividends. How about going back 20 years? Where do Cadillac Williams, CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush, Ryan Matthews, Trent Richardson, Knowshon Moreno, Rashard Mendenhall, McFadden, Cedric Benson, and a few others im likely leaving out fit in this analysis?

3. Very interesting that your arbitrary stopping point was 4 years when the 5th year contained no first rounders and Bernard, Bell, and Lacy all in the second round (as well as Montee Ball who was a clear miss)

4. You can’t just look at the difference in hit rate in first and second/third round for running backs (which is also ignoring a plethora of pro bowl backs picked after round 3, but that’s an argument for another post) without looking at those same splits for OTHER positions. The argument is that you can find better talent in later rounds RELATIVELY easier for RB than positions like QB, edge rusher, DB etc


Regardless a sample size of 5 first rounders, 4 Years, and 1 position analyzed isn’t going to cut it.

 

[Triplethreat]

For argument's sake, let's say the Browns have to pick Barkley or Fitzpatrick at 4, and then the opposite position at say 33, 35, wherever the Eagles pick lands, or 65. I'd say, especially with this RB class, the Browns are more likely to find an impactful RB at one of those spots than we are of finding an impactful DB at one of those spots, relatively to Barkley/Fitzpatrick.

Meh.

I'll take Barkley and Josh Jackson over any combo of Fitzpatrick/RB any day of the week.

 

[AZ_]

Michel > Barkley

 

[Triplethreat]

Triplethreat I like you pal, but please stop treating your analysis as scientific fact. You didn’t prove that there’s a 60% chance that a RB taken in rounds 2-3 will be trash nor did you prove 100% of RBs drafted in round 1 will he hits

Here are my problems with you treating your analysis as proof of anything:

1. You proved that in the last 4 drafts under your odd scoring system where Joe Mixon, McKinnon, Foreman, Conner, and Drake are somehow already misses (grades of incomplete would probably help your analysis) while somehow McCaffrey is already labeled a hit.

2. There has been a string of high success in the draft for first round running backs lately. Doing an analysis in the middle of that stretch is about as bad of a look at the overall picture as you can get. Yes, for 3 years now first round RBs have paid dividends. How about going back 20 years? Where do Cadillac Williams, CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush, Ryan Matthews, Trent Richardson, Knowshon Moreno, Rashard Mendenhall, McFadden, Cedric Benson, and a few others im likely leaving out fit in this analysis?

3. Very interesting that your arbitrary stopping point was 4 years when the 5th year contained no first rounders and Bernard, Bell, and Lacy all in the second round (as well as Montee Ball who was a clear miss)

4. You can’t just look at the difference in hit rate in first and second/third round for running backs (which is also ignoring a plethora of pro bowl backs picked after round 3, but that’s an argument for another post) without looking at those same splits for OTHER positions. The argument is that you can find better talent in later rounds RELATIVELY easier for RB than positions like QB, edge rusher, DB etc


Regardless a sample size of 5 first rounders, 4 Years, and 1 position analyzed isn’t going to cut it.

It was just a simple look back at the recent run of success in RB's high in the draft as opposed to the latter rounds. No, it is not a scientific fact or proven for that matter that the hit rates are 60% in the upper middle rounds, and 100% in the top of the draft.

However, I value recent data much more than I value older data. Thus, I chose to go back 4 years (I also wasn't trying to pour 3 hours into this shit). I'm also willing to say based off of that small sample, that even going back further will produce roughly similar results, without too much variation because that is just the nature of the draft. Every position is going to be the same with a higher chance to hit on the more premier prospects.

So when I say I want to address the offense rather than the defense, and that Barkley, based on recent data has a VERY GOOD to GREAT chance to be a hit as a PREMIER running back then this is my personal preference.

The argument I presented was mostly to get rid of this ridiculous label of Barkley as a bust, a guy who can't see lanes and doesn't have the vision necessary to run between the tackles. Based on recent data, the backs drafted high in the draft and especially the ones regarded as highly as Barkley has been by actual professional scouts (Fournette, Elliot) have been excellent and in fact game changers for their respective offenses to this point.

The bust label needs to be dropped, he's the best back in the class.

 

[SixPACK]

I have been team Minkah with RG I think? Or Rob? for quite a bit now, as probably 80% of people on here has been too. So, that is still my pick if he "falls" to 4.

Other than that, I have been up & down on Barkley. He can make crazy plays, but as people like AZ, Urban, and almost everyone not named TripleThreat on here, he has 1-2 monster plays. Other than that, I think he ran like how DeMarco Murray did this year. Horrible to compare to Murray? No. But watching him run (had him on my fantasy team) was painful most of the time.

As I said a long time ago, this RB class is absolutely stacked. We pray that Rosen is #1, Minkah #4.

Latest Draftwire 4 rounder:

1. Cleveland Browns | Josh Rosen | QB | UCLA
If new general manager John Dorsey is going to hit the reset button at quarterback, Rosen makes the most sense. He’s got his flaws, but Rosen’s the most pro-ready passer in this year’s class.

4. Cleveland Browns (from HOU) | Minkah Fitzpatrick | DB | Alabama
It would be hard for the Browns to pass on Saquon Barkley here, but they’ve already got some solid options in the backfield, with a much more glaring need for a difference-maker in the secondary. Fitzpatrick’s versatility will make him a dangerous defensive weapon at the next level.

33. Cleveland Browns | Courtland Sutton | WR | SMU

(now I know this is a mock and it's pretty much harder to predict than beating a Thai guy in ping pong, but the only 2 RB's taken in the 1st were Barkley/Guice. That leaves us with a LITTER to pick from with any of our 2nd's - see later.)

36. Cleveland Browns (from HOU) | Jaire Alexander | CB | Louisville

63. Cleveland Browns (from PHI) | Sony Michel | RB | Georgia

(don't know if he would fall this far, but the only RB taken ahead of him was Ronald Jones II. Now if we land either of those, or Chubb, Johnson, Harris, Penny, Freeman.....we are happy as hell to nab them with our last 2nd rounder. Just because this RB class is so stacked doesn't mean teams are going to sweep them up. Teams have other needs.

Teams who need a RB "way" ahead of other positions that I can think of off top of my head? NYG, Colts? Jets? Bucs? We can sit and wait and be happy as hell with a 2nd round RB. There will be plenty to choose from)

65. Cleveland Browns | D.J. Moore | WR | Maryland

97. Cleveland Browns | Josey Jewell | LB | Iowa

120. Cleveland Browns (from CAR) | Jaylen Samuels | RB/TE/WR | North Carolina State

 

[AZ_]

It was just a simple look back at the recent run of success in RB's high in the draft as opposed to the latter rounds. No, it is not a scientific fact or proven for that matter that the hit rates are 60% in the upper middle rounds, and 100% in the top of the draft.

However, I value recent data much more than I value older data. Thus, I chose to go back 4 years (I also wasn't trying to pour 3 hours into this shit). I'm also willing to say based off of that small sample, that even going back further will produce roughly similar results, without too much variation because that is just the nature of the draft. Every position is going to be the same with a higher chance to hit on the more premier prospects.

So when I say I want to address the offense rather than the defense, and that Barkley, based on recent data has a VERY GOOD to GREAT chance to be a hit as a PREMIER running back then this is my personal preference.

The argument I presented was mostly to get rid of this ridiculous label of Barkley as a bust, a guy who can't see lanes and doesn't have the vision necessary to run between the tackles. Based on recent data, the backs drafted high in the draft and especially the ones regarded as highly as Barkley has been by actual professional scouts (Fournette, Elliot) have been excellent and in fact game changers for their respective offenses to this point.

The bust label needs to be dropped, he's the best back in the class.

He's arguably the best back in the class, but the hype has been a large part of that. Similar to Baker Mayfield.

Guys who captivate college football generally get a bigger boost than is necessary which doesn't always match the tape.

Barkley has some great traits, elite traits in fact. But his RB1 status should certainly be challenged by other backs who do things better.

Especially relative to what the Browns need.

 

[Urban]

Meh.

I'll take Barkley and Josh Jackson over any combo of Fitzpatrick/RB any day of the week.

It seems most mock drafts/scouts see Josh Jackson anywhere between the #1-3 ranked CB in this draft, I'll be shocked if he falls to 33. Imagine he'll even go before 20.

 

[Triplethreat]

He's arguably the best back in the class, but the hype has been a large part of that. Similar to Baker Mayfield.

Guys who captivate college football generally get a bigger boost than is necessary which doesn't always match the tape.

Barkley has some great traits, elite traits in fact. But his RB1 status should certainly be challenged by other backs who do things better.

Especially relative to what the Browns need.

No one has the explosiveness of Barkley. He runs like Adrian Peterson when he breaks through a hole into the open field.

So. Damn. Explosive.

It's really not even close when you factor in he's the best in pass protection and the best pass catcher in the entire class.

You're really trying hard to hate him if you're actually questioning whether he's the best back in the class or not. He affects the game in so many different ways that none of the other backs can.

Which is precisely why they're not as highly touted as he is.

 

[AZ_]

No one has the explosiveness of Barkley. He runs like Adrian Peterson when he breaks through a hole into the open field.

So. Damn. Explosive.

It's really not even close when you factor in he's the best in pass protection and the best pass catcher in the entire class.

You're really trying hard to hate him if you're actually questioning whether he's the best back in the class or not. He affects the game in so many different ways that none of the other backs can.

Which is precisely why they're not as highly touted as he is.

What are you basing his pass protection on?

This is one area which he's certainly struggled with throughout his time in Happy Valley.

I'm not telling you that I "hate" him. He's an explosive player, and as I said, he's got a ton of elite traits you look for. Lower body strength/explosiveness is about the best I've seen.

But he's clearly flawed in how he attacks a crowded line, dancing WAY too much and not trusting his blockers while bouncing it outside. It's an enormous red flag at the part of the game the Browns need most from whomever they select at that position, which is why I think guys like Michel, Penny or Johnson in the second round provide greater value.

 

[Triplethreat]

What are you basing his pass protection on?

This is one area which he's certainly struggled with throughout his time in Happy Valley.

I'm not telling you that I "hate" him. He's an explosive player, and as I said, he's got a ton of elite traits you look for. Lower body strength/explosiveness is about the best I've seen.

But he's clearly flawed in how he attacks a crowded line, dancing WAY too much and not trusting his blockers while bouncing it outside. It's an enormous red flag at the part of the game the Browns need most from whomever they select at that position, which is why I think guys like Michel, Penny or Johnson in the second round provide greater value.

I don't see any of that as even real problems when it comes to Barkley.

When he has a hole inside he fucking hits it with burst. His line let him down A LOT, and yet it doesn't get talked about nearly as often. He tried making more than he should have out of nothing by "dancing" around on plays that were already blown up, but it's not a major problem in the slightest.

 

[AZ_]

I don't see any of that as a problem.

When he has a hole inside he fucking hits it with burst. His line let him down A LOT, and yet it doesn't get talked about nearly as often. He tried making more than he should have out of nothing by "dancing" around on plays that were already blown up, but it's not a major problem in the slightest.

We've shown numerous examples of that not being the case, but blaming his offensive line isn't doing him a service.

There are so many guys who can do similar things in this draft, and given the Browns need for downhill running to go along with Duke's dynamic playmaking ability, the choice becomes so easy.

It's a hard pass on Barkley for me unless its at 33.