Think it all depends on Wade. If he's healthy I think Heat win in 5 or 6. If not, I think Spurs will make them pay in ways the Bulls and Pacers cannot, either because of the roster, experience or coaching. Would take Spurs in 6 or 7 in that case.
All in all though, it seems like a decent matchup for the Heat
Eh...Wade has almost become an expensive role player at this point. He's really become an 18 foot jump shooter that bails Miami out deep into the clock. And he's been great at knocking that shot down, but offensively, I think Miami has looked SIGNIFICANTLY better when Ray Allen is on the court spacing things for LeBron.
As crazy as it seems, I think teams are trying to funnel the ball to Wade at all costs, and then hoping he takes the shot. Again, he's been hitting it, but that's where you want the ball as an opposing defense right now. There isn't a coach in the NBA that would turn down the opportunity for Wade to be taking 17-18 foot jumpshots all game.