Cavs vs. Boston -- 2017 Eastern Conference Finals

mds said:

Not that ya'll care, but the band I'm working with is big in Boston and we were invited by the Celtics to go to the game. Woohoo! Go Cavs!

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D-Wreck said:

I know everybody likes to poke fun at ESPN's BPI, and 538's predictions/odds, but it's not their fault the Cavs broke the system.

All of these models are based on regular season performance, and the assumption that each playoff team is actually trying during the regular season. The Cavs clearly were not.

Now, nobody is forcing them to keep advertising these predictions, but the Cavs tanking the regular season, and playing like a completely different team in the playoffs should not be an indictment on any model.

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theSwayze said:

I live in Mass and this is the only time of year I listen to sport talk radio because it's sooooo good.

Each show has 3 guys.

The Depressed Realist whose completely moved on to the draft and next year. Spitballing when he'd trade Smaaaahhhtt. But still thinks there is a chance for the lucky Irish!!

The Wishful Thinker that is pretty sure Olynik has another 27 point game in him and IT is about to have a growth spurt and Dennis Johnson said they looked "as determined as he's seen the boys."

The Critic who likes to throw fire at everyone. "The good new about the refs not thinking Lebron is capable of committing fouls is that it is allowing Crowder to never become the man he was supposed to be...."

The Best.

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Rich said:

I do expect the rest of the series to be a lot closer. Cavs sold out on Thomas when hed drive and left a lot of guys wide, wide open. I think they'll make more of those shots going forward.

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RuanuLaw said:

And I expect the Cavs to make more of their shots as well....(Kyle Korver went 1 for 6, Lebron 1 for 6, Kyrie 0 for 3).

So I disagree and expect us to blow them out. Will it happen every game...no! But overall, it will feel like a blowout.

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The Wizard of Moz said:

I have no idea why people insist on defending their garbage ass models

Any model that says that the Celtics have a 60% chance of beating the Cavs is useless. You went into great detail about why it was useless. Ok, cool. Literally give no shits. It's useless. Has 0 predictive power

Any model only taking into account the regular season is a garbage ass model by a garbage ass statistician. You explaining why it is garbage doesn't make it any less garbage. Hey here's an idea: when your model is giving obviously unintuitive results how about changing the parameters. It's how every other industry approaches the problem, but oh no, not 538. Gotta make sure we stay tried and true to the regular season model in a sport where the regular season is nearly meaningless

Your last paragraph is essentially saying don't blame the model for not identifying any lurking variables. Well ok, I'll blame the modelor. How anyone defends that trash is beyond me. An entry level predictive analytics course knowledge base could make a better model

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The Wizard of Moz said:

I have no idea why people insist on defending their garbage ass models

Any model that says that the Celtics have a 60% chance of beating the Cavs is useless. You went into great detail about why it was useless. Ok, cool. Literally give no shits. It's useless. Has 0 predictive power

Any model only taking into account the regular season is a garbage ass model by a garbage ass statistician. You explaining why it is garbage doesn't make it any less garbage. Hey here's an idea: when your model is giving obviously unintuitive results how about changing the parameters. It's how every other industry approaches the problem, but oh no, not 538. Gotta make sure we stay tried and true to the regular season model in a sport where the regular season is nearly meaningless

Your last paragraph is essentially saying don't blame the model for not identifying any lurking variables. Well ok, I'll blame the modelor. How anyone defends that trash is beyond me. An entry level predictive analytics course knowledge base could make a better model

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D-Wreck said:

I'm just saying that a model shouldn't be condemned based on an extreme outlier like the Cavs.

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shoes22 said:

Wish I could like this post more than once.

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D-Wreck said:

I'm just saying that a model shouldn't be condemned based on an extreme outlier like the Cavs.

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shoes22 said:

Meh...538 doesn’t even attempt to correct for some very basic significant variables.

Let’s say team A is way, way better than team B. Team A is up by 25+ points for most of the game, and rest their starters in the fourth quarter. But team A’s third string off the bench sucks and they only end up winning the game by 6. The only thing 538 factors in when adjusting the rating for both teams is that small +6, not the fact that team A was actually winning by 20+ for over 40 minutes of game time.

Or for some real world examples, let’s say LeBron takes a game off for rest, or in a much anticipated playoff game Kawhi Leonard gets injured for the Spurs and is ruled out for the next game. In 538’s ELO model, does that change the predicted odds for the next game?

Spoiler alert: It doesn’t!

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