2017-2018 Boston Celtics: No Irving! No Hayward! No Brooklyn Pick!

TyGuy said:

Do we really know with 100 % certainty that LeBron wouldn't allow Kyrie to be traded for Jimmy Butler?

Click to expand...

That depends on who you're willing to listen to; but based on the insiders here, then yeah.. Irving is 100% untouchable.

TyGuy said:

As i'm sure he would here or he will with the pups.

Click to expand...

Just so that I understand you... you're arguing that Jimmy Butler would get 9 FTA a game in Cleveland alongside James and Love?

gourimoko said:

That's fine if you want to factor it in, but you also need to factor in the fact that players who play with other superstars see their free throw attempts drop. There is a finite number of attempts to go around; and Butler is using a tremendous amount of attempts available for the Bulls.

Click to expand...

except kyrie has had essentially the same # of FTA's per 36 for his entire career.

5.1 per 36 in 12-13 with no superstars
4.9 per 36 in 13-14 with no superstars
4.8 per 36 in 14-15 with 2 superstars
4.7 per 36 in 16-17 with 2 superstars
4.5 per 36 in 11-12 with no superstars
4.1 per 36 in 15-16 with 2 superstars

edit: but i do agree with you in principle and obv it applies to shots overall, not just FTA's (which is part of the reason i'm not enthralled with the whole wade/melo stuff but that's for another day). just not regarding kyrie specifically.

gourimoko said:

Just so that I understand you... you're arguing that Jimmy Butler would get 9 FTA a game in Cleveland alongside James and Love?

Click to expand...

I believe he would put up similar per 100 freethrow attempts and freethrow attempt rates as a bull.

Triumph36 said:

except kyrie has had essentially the same # of FTA's per game for his entire career.

4.5 per 36 in 11-12 with no superstars
5.1 per 36 in 12-13 with no superstars
4.9 per 36 in 13-14 with no superstars
4.8 per 36 in 14-15 with 2 superstars
4.7 per 36 in 16-17 with 2 superstars
4.1 per 36 in 15-16 with 2 superstars

Click to expand...

This doesn't really speak against my argument. I'm not arguing that a player, regardless of skill or longevity, will consume all of the available FTA's in a game if he's not playing alongside a superstar. I'm saying that Kyrie Irving cannot get to the line 9 times since there are a finite number of free throws to be taken, and that number is shared by 2 other superstars as well as the other players on the team.

FWIW, Irving averaged more free throws per game than Butler in his first three years; without any superstars. In his first year with LeBron, he was getting nearly a 30% FTr, then it falls off a cliff. By comparison, Jimmy Butler is getting to the line 54% of the time this past season... No, I don't think that would hold true playing alongside two other superstar players.

TyGuy said:

I believe he would put up similar per 100 freethrow attempts and freethrow attempt rates as a bull.

Click to expand...

Not a chance.

gourimoko said:

Not a chance.

Click to expand...

He got to the line a lot sharing ball handling duties with wade and rondo. He would be splitting ball handling duty here with bron and no Kyrie. As long as his usage stayed similar; I believe it would. There's no reason to believe he would see a significant reduction in throws.

gourimoko said:

This doesn't really speak against my argument. I'm not arguing that a player, regardless of skill or longevity, will consume all of the available FTA's in a game if he's not playing alongside a superstar. I'm saying that Kyrie Irving cannot get to the line 9 times since there are a finite number of free throws to be taken, and that number is shared by 2 other superstars as well as the other players on the team.

FWIW, Irving averaged more free throws per game than Butler in his first three years; without any superstars. In his first year with LeBron, he was getting nearly a 30% FTr, then it falls off a cliff. By comparison, Jimmy Butler is getting to the line 54% of the time this past season... No, I don't think that would hold true playing alongside two other superstar players.

Click to expand...

hm. i think you might be mistaking FTr to mean the % of a team's free throws a specific player gets (or something along those lines)? or i could be wrong.

FTr is a player-specific stat. in other words, changing the supporting cast is irrelevant because it is always based on the number of free throw attempts compared to field goal attempts. a player can have a 30% FTr on 15 field-goal attempts if he's playing with other superstars, or on 30 field-goal attempts if he's playing with no superstars.

edit: and yes, in theory playing with more superstars should provide a player with more open looks from 3, for example. so it could change his FTr.

BUT if you look at lebron, who is obviously great at getting to the line, his % has been between 40% and 50% essentially his entire career. yes, there is a couple % fluctuation between his early cav years/miami years/recent cav years but it is a negligible %. the difference between kyrie and butler is significantly different.

TyGuy said:

He got to the line a lot sharing ball handling duties with wade and rondo. He would be splitting ball handling duty here with bron and no Kyrie. As long as his usage stayed similar; I believe it would.

Click to expand...

Ball-handling isn't really important here; it's attempts at the basket. Butler took 8.9 FTA/g, compared to Wade's 4.7 and Rondo's 0.7. Wade only played 60 games and 29 minutes per game; and Rondo was not a factor here whatsoever.

TyGuy said:

There's no reason to believe he would see a significant reduction in throws

Click to expand...

It's been explained above.

gourimoko said:

Ball-handling isn't really important here; it's attempts at the basket. Butler took 8.9 FTA/g, compared to Wade's 4.7 and Rondo's 0.7. Wade only played 60 games and 29 minutes per game; and Rondo was not a factor here whatsoever.



It's been explained above.

Click to expand...

Butler had a very modest usage of 26. Kyrie was able to have a usg of over 30 despite playing with LeBron. Unless you thin both Butlers usg would go down and his role altered significantly then there isn't any reason to believe butler would be getting less freethrows on a per possession basis.

Triumph36 said:

hm. i think you might be mistaking FTr to mean the % of a team's free throws a specific player gets (or something along those lines)? or i could be wrong.

FTr is a player-specific stat. in other words, changing the supporting cast is irrelevant because it is always based on the number of free throw attempts compared to field goal attempts. a player can have a 30% FTr on 15 field-goal attempts if he's playing with other superstars, or on 30 field-goal attempts if he's playing with no superstars.

Click to expand...

There's no confusion; I'm aware of how the stat works..

My argument is that the drawing of fouls happens with respect to the flow of the game, and the players on the floor. If you're playing alongside additional superstars, you are less likely to draw fouls at the same rate; because there are fewer instances where the refs are going to be as willing to blow the whistle.

This isn't a situation where you have Players 1-5, who are all separate and distinct variables drawing fouls in a vacuum. That's not how the NBA is officiated. Referees use human, subjective, qualitative assessments to determine when, where, and under what pretense to blow the whistle.

For example; there is only an 8 FTA variance between the Mavericks (30) and the Rockets (1) with respect to free throw attempts per game. The variance of the lowest and highest free throw rates, by team, is .094.

The point here is that free throws are largely controlled by a lot of other factors outside of player skill. My argument is that if you take someone like an Isaiah Thomas, or Jimmy Butler, or James Harden, and put them on a superteam; their free throw rate will fall towards a more reasonable average. I don't think if you took Butler and put him on the Warriors, he's going to draw 9 FTA a game on 16.5 shots.

TyGuy said:

Butler had a very modest usage of 26. Kyrie was able to have a usg of over 30 despite playing with LeBron. Unless you thin both Butlers usg would go down and his role altered significantly then there isn't any reason to believe butler would be getting less freethrows on a per possession basis.

Click to expand...

Not sure if I'm reading you correctly; but, FWIW, free throws are not a product of usage but a component - and that's neither here nor there, because I think you're largely missing the point. See my last post.

gourimoko said:

That depends on who you're willing to listen to; but based on the insiders here, then yeah.. Irving is 100% untouchable.

Click to expand...

Kyrie should be untouchable when LBJ is on the team. They shoulder the scoring burden together, with Kyrie taking clutch shots.
However, if LBJ is gone, do you move Kyrie for a boatload of assets in a rebuild? I guess that depends on what's left of the roster or what you can fill it out with.

chuck0609 said:

Kyrie should be untouchable when LBJ is on the team. They shoulder the scoring burden together, with Kyrie taking clutch shots.
However, if LBJ is gone, do you move Kyrie for a boatload of assets in a rebuild? I guess that depends on what's left of the roster or what you can fill it out with.

Click to expand...

Kyrie isn't good enough to be untouchable.

TyGuy said:

Kyrie isn't good enough to be untouchable.

Click to expand...

Obviously the Cavs and LeBron disagree with you, Ty.