Jack Brickman
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Basically take everything you said and the opposite is what actually happened lol.
The cap might go up but only by a very small
Margin. There was a massive explosion for 2 years, promarily in the summer of 2016 which enabled GS to sign KD. The players union had the ability to opt for cap smoothing which would have been a gradual raise over time, but they were advised poorly and fucked up and didn’t opt for it basically just because the owners suggested it and they didn’t trust the owners.
Now they had one or two years of crazy bloated contracts , mostly for scrubs, destroyed competitive balance which also makes less teams likely to spend now because they know they can’t beat GS, and now we have a cap only increasing marginally and cap space is at an all time low this summer.
This will lead to plenty of good players being stuck on the minimum, restricted free agents or any non elite free agent is going to have a hard time getting a Big Long term deal. Lou Williams got an MLE deal when he probably deserves a lot more.
Players ended up fucking themselves long term. I don’t see the cap raising until they get the gambling stuff going
On the plus side, this whole ordeal will probably allow us to re-sign Rodney Hood in the 10-12 million range, which seems pretty fair to me. I can't imagine he'll get much more on the open market. Very few teams have cap space and, while he's a solid player, he's not a star.