So, after not watching any high school or college basketball for two years, I've gotten back into studying prospects pretty intently... I've always enjoyed the draft process and with the Cavs having a top notch pick, I've been particularly focused on some of top guys coming in this year... It's been refreshing to start watching some of these prospects without any preconceived notions or think how others have them ranked...
I really feel confident about who will be available with the 8th pick... This is a particularly deep draft; the Cavs will be able to get a pretty good player... While there's a drop-off from the top-2 to the next tier, there's a lot of guys available in the next tier and the Cavs will more than likely have their choice...
What's refreshing is that historically the back-end of the lottery has produced some real good NBA players: Devin Booker, Myles Turner, CJ McCollum, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Andre Drummond, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan, etc... You're basically looking at 1-2 guys in the 8-14 slots that really take off and become foundational players for their teams..
Are there available in this draft? I tend to think so...
Here's my top choices for the #8 pick:
1). Trae Young--
From perusing this thread throughout the season, it seems like I'm in the minority... I truly believe he's "the guy" the Cavs should all hope is there... There's a good chance he makes it, granted the Magic don't take him...
If you want to be a successful lead guard in this league, you have to be able to produce on the offensive end… Young can do that in spades…
All the talk of Young is surrounding his shooting, but to me, he’s the best passer in this class…
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/959136182658654215
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/942981932073222144
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/1003675602669449216
In watching him, I was just really impressed with his vision and to see things before they even happened… He was consistently setting up his teammates for easy opportunities… Good players can get a shot for themselves, great players can get a shot for themselves and for others…
Yes, the shooting will be there and the range will always come up…
Cleaning The Glass really did a good break down, looking to how such a good shooter only shot 36%... TL;DR he took an immense amount of deep 3’s; by looking at other shots, he was extremely efficient…. If he’s able to cut down on the deep 3’s, he’ll be a high-level shooter at the next level…
I’ve heard all the concerns about Young and believe they’re valid… He’s not a good defender and likely isn’t going to be at the next level… But that’s not what you’re drafting him for and that’s not going to be what you’re asking him to do… If he’s a good enough offensive player, that will outweigh any contributions on the defensive end…
What really struck me about watching Young was the role he was asked to take on as a true freshmen… Oklahoma really had no other shot creator within their starting unit and really didn’t have one on their bench… Lon Kruger asked a true freshmen to have every possession run though his hands and funneled the offense all through him… The first half of the season this worked… Once they got into conference play and the scouting report got out, Young struggled to adjust some… Teams were physical with him, forced him into bad shots and his efficiency went down…
The key thing to take away from this was more so the negatives people describe Young with (high volume chucker) was really what was asked of Young at Oklahoma.. The offense ran through him and the full offensive burden was placed on Young’s shoulders… That doesn’t make his decisions and shots inexcusable but this, to an extent, is how Oklahoma operated…
Now, he does need to improve his shot selection and, at times, his carelessness with the ball.. It seemed like he was in a good rhythm to start the year but got a bit too carried away with the long leash and freedom he had..
Bringing Young on a team with a guy like LeBron, would really be the best thing for him.. Having some structure and having someone to learn from is what Young needs.… Being able to improve his shot selection and go to a team where he’s not relied upon to be “the guy” early on, would be the best thing for his development…
I really believe Young is a guy made for the modern game… He can shoot and pass with the best of them and is what teams are looking for at the PG position,.,
2). Wendell Carter JR--
Good player? Yes… Great player? I don’t know..
Carter Jr. was overshadowed at Duke but his play showed up with his more limited opportunities… In the NBA with more space and better shooting surrounding him will likely lead to a larger impact… At Duke with a couple of non-shooters (Bagley and Duval) and Bagley occupying most of the big touches, Carter wasn’t put in the optimal situation to show off his skillset..
Carter is a guy to me who does a lot of things well… His best asset is his low-post scoring… For a kid this young, he really does show good footwork, patience and a comfort level with his back to the basket…
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/1005537591834357760
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/938042883734671365
He’s passes the ball well for a big and is continuing to develop his jump shot… Didn’t really see him operate too much in the P&R at Duke but given his skillset, I see him being able to operate as a roll man or popping..
Defensively is really where I have some concerns… While not a slow mover, he’s not the easy moving athlete that Bagley is… I certainly didn’t see Carter get exposed but when he’s pulled away from the basket, can he defend the P&R efficiently? How will he handle being the five in transition vs some smaller, faster lineups? As he develops his body, I feel like this will improve but it’s a question mark for me…
I understand the Horford comparisons with Carter Jr. being proficient in a lot of different areas but I see Carter as better on the offensive end and Horford much better on the defensive end… I couldn’t help but think of Myles Turner some while watching Carter..
I really do like Carter and think he has the highest floor, but in order to be a successful big in today’s game you have to be efficient defensively… Carter can do that but how good of a defender can he be? That’ll determine his ceiling…
3). Collin Sexton--
If you’re taking Sexton, to me, you’re really betting on the person and the player and hoping his projection pans out… Because right now, I’m not sure this is someone ready to contribute consistently at the NBA level… He’s not an efficient shooter, he’s not an overly recognizeable defender, his passing and rebounding stats were meh… What is he?
Right now, he’s a lead guard who attacks… His first step beat college defenders consistently off the dribble and once inside, he’s one of the better athletes around the rim, particularly for his size… His free throw rate, especially for a guard, was really good and converted at a good rate…
https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/946559607438282752
https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/1005948914451828736
Avery Johnson put him in a lot of P&R situations and he did do well there.. While not the passer Young is, I do think Sexton is capable… What I would compare it to is football and quarterbacks… I don’t see Sexton as a guy who will throw teammates open but rather will hit guys when they come open..
While his jumper is a work in progress, it’s not broken or bad by any means… His near 78 FT% rate shows there’s something to work with and a pathway to being a good shooter with work…Perhaps some Synergy guys can chime in, but in watching it seems like he’s much more efficient shooter off the dribble when he can get in rhythm as opposed to being as spot-up shooter…
What’s interesting about Gilbert’s tweet during Sexton’s workout is I have been thinking Sexton is the type of guy I could see Gilbert falling in love with… We all know Oladipo was a guy Gilbert was pushing hard and Sexton is cut from the same cloth…By all accounts he’s a great kid, not a big social media guy, had a 4.0 at Alabama and burst onto the scene after being a relative unknown recruit early on… After seeing Oladipo tear up the Cavs this year and seeing him blossom onto the scene, I could see Gilbert drawing some parallels there and pulling for this kid come draft day..
By all accounts, most great players are great athletes… Sexton has the going for him and some skills that will translate well… My worries lie within some skills, which can be taught and worked on, and how long will it take for them to come?
He’s a guy who would be an “okay” pick for me… Nothing really stands out to me regarding Sexton.. I like the kid, think he’s a good player but worry there will need to be some developing to be a high level player…
Sleeper: Donte DiVincenzo—
This is more of a pick if the Cavs trade back from 8, into the late lottery or early teens.. If so, DiVincenzo would be at the top of my list… In watching Villanova a lot this year early on, trying to get a feel for Bridges, Spellman and Brunson, DiVincenzo really popped out to me… I didn’t think at the time he would be declaring but his all-around game, scoring ability and the way he played the game really intrigued me…. He plays with a swagger and fire I enjoyed…
The tourney will get him drafted in the 1st round but the groundwork was laid earlier in the year that people took notice of him…
As we did see in the tourney, he really is an explosive scorer.. In part because he can do a lot on the offensive end (shoot, pass, dribble, create is an explosive athlete), so there’s really not a limitation you can put on him…
I think his best role is going to be as a guy who is asked to go out and get his own bucket… You saw Jay Wright put the ball in his hands a lot when Brunson left the floor, or even to break Brunson when he was on the floor, so there is a certain level of responsibility he’s fared well with.. He can get others shot but he’s at his best looking for his shots.. He relies a good amount on his 3PT shot, which can be streaky, but he’s good at creating space…
To me, he’s a shooting guard at the next level.. His wingspan will hurt in that regard, but putting him at the shooting guard spot where he can focus on attacking and getting his own, with the secondary asset of finding others is really where he will be used best… He can play point guard in a pinch but I really don’t think setting up and finding others the whole game is using him best…
Overall, I just enjoyed watching him play… Brought me back some Delonte West visions… He did have a tendency to get somewhat reckless at times but it’s a part of who he is and something teams will have to live with…
Unknown: Michael Porter JR—
What will his medicals be? For a guy who’s been experiencing back issues since sophomore year of high school, it’s certainly a worrisome injury; backs in short are tricky..
I’m not going to go on about MJP because truthfully, I haven’t seen him play to an extent I feel 100% making comments on him… I watched his limited college minutes but you can’t make an evaluation off of that; and neither can you off YouTube mixtapes..
By all account the talent is there and it’s hard to find two-way wings in this league—can he be a high level one? If the answer is yes and his medicals check out, he has to be at the top of consideration at #8…
Eh, I'll pass: The Bridges'—
Look, I think both Mikal Bridges and Miles Bridges will be good role players in the right situation... But to come away with one of them at #8 with the talent available and how this pick was acquired, I will be highly disappointed...
Mikal will be taken inside the top-10 most likely because the rise of the 3&D wing revolution and how importance its become... But beyond that, what will he become? I keep circling back to Trevor Ariza, which is a very useful player and not a slight, just not what I'm hoping to get here..
Miles I had a hard time seeing what people had him so highly ranked entering the season... To me, he's a perimeter dependent player who struggles creating his own shot and wasn't the consistent offensive threat MSU needed him to be... Now was that MSU and Izzo holding him back? We'll see.. I do see him having more success in the pros where his skillset will be more valuable... But again, I don't see that as #8 worthy...
In the end, I think a lot depends on where the LeBron decision is at... Based on past history, the Cavs won't get any assurances and by recent history, the Cavs are operating without him in mind...
Either way, unless a surprise happens, I full expect at least 2 of Sexton, Young and Carter to be there, if not all 3.. It should be a good class to choose from and I sure hope they can get someone to build around...