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Ha. Well, the guy's kinda close, but it's a load of crap. Yeah, some teams'll have space, but 80% aren't even close to being considered threats to lure Lebron there.
What's the rough estimate for the cap, $60 million? And Lebron's up for, what, $20 mil/year starting roughly? So a team would need have at MOST $40 million in guaranteed salaries for 2010/11. Let's see, assuming no big moves and expected re-signings & options....
Atlanta - $25 million (Assuming resiging/options on Horford, Williams & Acie Law)
Chicago - maybe $23 million (and only if they ditch Tyrus & Sefalosha and their cap holds, & don't keep Ben Gordon)
Cleveland - $40 million (not counting Lebron & other cap holds we might have), plus we can offer an extra year others can't
Houston - $22 million (not counting McGrady's cap hold, assuming resigning Scola)
LA Clippers - $22 million
Miami - $22 million (factoring in D.Wade's cap hold)
Minnesota - $38 million
Nets - $20 million
OKC - $40 million
Phoenix - $20 million
Sacramento - $39 million
Toronto - $26 million
** The Pistons could have space, but only if they don't resign Hamilton & don't option Stuckey - no chance
** The Knicks are only a possibility if they can dump MASSIVE salaries. I mean MASSIVE.
So who's even a whiff of a threat there? Miami if they get good again, Clippers maybe... the pretty LA lights? I still honestly see the Knicks as a long shot.
And this is all based on my estimates. Half those teams could drop off that list if they give bigger contracts than expected to their young players.
It's so much less cut and dry than all these national media types think. There are honestly very few options for Lebron that will make as much sense as Cleveland if we continue to contend for titles every year.
I agree he's "kind of close" if you look at the 2010 numbers as of today. But look at what he said -
"My understanding is, he's out for sure," the executive said. "He'll run it out to free agency for sure, and Cleveland is definitely not the highest chance of the teams. Everyone that knows him and that he talks to privately says he wants to get out of there. Obviously, New York's been talked about, but there's going to be lots of teams with money that year, 15 or so."
He's saying that there will be 15 or so teams "that year". NO FREAKING WAY teams will have that much discipline to not spend between now and then. My guess is a max of 5 teams end up being enough under the cap to actually offer a contract to Lebron in 2010.