Seems like there's some risk hiring Kitchens. The "next new hotness" often flames out.
True, but without exception, there's a risk in
anyone whom we would have hired. Just for starters, every single other candidate raises the possibility that we lose Kitchens, and whomever we get to replace him doesn't have the same rapport/success. That's an inherent, unavoidable risk. Additionally....
1) Suppose we'd have gotten Lincoln Riley or some hot college coach. There's the risk that his successful college system doesn't work, or maybe only works for a bit before cratering for one reason or another. Or maybe his leadership style works much better with college kids than with some of the grown men, including prima donnas, inhabiting the pro ranks. Instead of Pete Carroll, you get Chip Kelly or Nick Saban. There's always that risk no matter how certain you are that a particular college coach will be successful
2) Suppose you go for an NFL coordinator. No matter how ready/perfect he may seem, it may be that 1) he's actually not really ready, 2) the job is just too big for him, and/or 3) his success as a coordinator elsewhere was actually dependent on player talent or other factors of which we weren't aware. That gives you "can't miss" Josh McDaniels completely flaming out in Denver.
3) Or suppose you go for the proven, successful veteran head NFL coach. Well, maybe
his success was based on great coordinators, position coaches, or particular talent that wouldn't apply to the Browns. With very limited exceptions, the only reason a "proven success" NFL head coach is available is because he's
also a "proven failure". So then the question is which guy are you gettting? The guy who has proven he might succeed, or the guy who also has proven he can fail?
4) The only real exception to any of these is if you get a previously successful head coach who hasn't (yet) proven that he also can fail, but is available for some reason other than getting fired. That would have been Arians. But if you hire Arians and some team then swoops in to decide it wants Kitchens as an HC, you're going to lose that continuity and so be taking a risk. There's also the question of health, age, and/or whatever other factors induced him to leave his last job. Or whatever other factors led Dorsey to not even grant Arians an interview despite his publicly campaigning for the job.
The guy wasn't even a play caller for a full season and doesn't have NFL head coaching experience. Certainly wasn't a "play it safe" move by a team that could hire anyone they wanted.
Kitchens is literally the
only person in the entire world who has proven to have elevated this current roster of Browns offensive talent to be one of the most prolific in the entire league. In that sense -- preserving and presumably improving the incredible offense we saw in the second half of the season -- Kitchens was actually the
safest pick we could have made.
Are there risks in other aspects of him becoming the head coach? Sure, but the only way to have
no risk is to already have the guy in place who has proven he can win with this roster, and just retain him. Any outsider you hire, no matter who it is, comes with "risk".