2019 NBA Draft

I'mWithDan said:

He does have nice feel as a passer.

Marquette runs a lot of NBA sets......P&R and re-screen action and while he's a score first player, he has good vision and a willingness as a passer.

I don't know that he'll ever be a true facilitating PG but maybe a Lillard esque player......5-6 AST per game and punch as a scorer. 5.1 AST per 40 this year is pretty nice for a player with his shot and scoring volume. You'd think at the NBA level, with better teammates, that his AST totals should rise a bit (if he gets the chance to play a full time role with someone).

Click to expand...

Possibly...it's more his assists in context with his turnovers (and steals) that are pretty subpar for a PG prospect. 5.1 assists, 1.4 steals, and 4.6 turnovers per 40 would be more typical for a volume-scoring wing. Looking back through his game log, it's hard to find even a single game where he did well in the assist:TO department. If I had games on tape I'd want to watch Marquette-DePaul, where he notched a career high 9 assists but also had 8 turnovers.

Watched a good chunk of the Duke game yesterday, so I got my first real look at Zion. I don't pretend to be an expert on college players, but two things jumped out at me:

1) He has really good hands. That's an incredibly important quality for a big man.

2) He needs to drop 15-20 pounds.

The Human Q-Tip said:

Watched a good chunk of the Duke game yesterday, so I got my first real look at Zion. I don't pretend to be an expert on college players, but two things jumped out at me:

1) He has really good hands. That's an incredibly important quality for a big man.

2) He needs to drop 15-20 pounds.

Click to expand...

Agree about the weight loss-he doesnt appear like a finely tuned athlete. Imagine if he made a Karl Malone change to his physique. It would be a shame if turned into a late model Shawn Kemp at 21. He might be unstoppable with a personal trainer. He also needs to learn how to shoot especially free throws. Malone was very good at the line.

Nathan S said:

I buy that his ceiling is high on defense; my model has him at +4.3 on defense actually, which is the second-highest rating I've ever seen (a hair behind Roy Hibbert). Where it has a problem with him is on offense. There's only so much value a guy can add on lobs and occasional putbacks, and I haven't seen many signs of his game expanding beyond that point.

Click to expand...

IIRC Shaka's offense always seems to suppress their bigs' assist numbers. Would need Synergy to check on Hayes, but I believe that Bamba had relatively few roll man possessions last year as well. I think their offensive system could hurt him on your model, but I could be wrong.

Nathan S said:

I'd be interested in hearing more about Garland's defense and all-around athletic projection. My perception of him is that he's a little smaller, a little weaker, a little less explosive than you'd like to see in a lottery PG, and then you add a knee injury on top of that. Seems like he has very little margin for error if he's going to have a star-level impact in the NBA.

Click to expand...

I think Garland's defense gets a little too much hate. He competes on the ball certainly more than you'd expect based on the perception that I've seen out there. He's just so skinny, and doesn't have much size/length. I wouldn't bet on him adding much muscle either. I'm really interested in seeing what he measures at if he goes to the combine. I'd expect him to be a little bit of a negative on D, but it's really hard to be a positive defender as a PG in the NBA.

3 Ball...GOT IT said:

IIRC Shaka's offense always seems to suppress their bigs' assist numbers. Would need Synergy to check on Hayes, but I believe that Bamba had relatively few roll man possessions last year as well. I think their offensive system could hurt him on your model, but I could be wrong.



I think Garland's defense gets a little too much hate. He competes on the ball certainly more than you'd expect based on the perception that I've seen out there. He's just so skinny, and doesn't have much size/length. I wouldn't bet on him adding much muscle either. I'm really interested in seeing what he measures at if he goes to the combine. I'd expect him to be a little bit of a negative on D, but it's really hard to be a positive defender as a PG in the NBA.

Click to expand...

Well, RPM has Bamba the 3rd-worst offensive player in basketball so far this year...so I tend to think it's less about Shaka's system and more that he's working with low-skill offensive bigs. If anything, the fact that Shaka's not giving Hayes the freedom to toss up occasional jumpers suggests that he may be even more raw than Bamba offensively. Of course, he's younger than Bamba was going into the draft, so that's somewhat excusable...but I wouldn't be surprised if Hayes is a bottom-10 or so offensive player in the NBA next year, and it may take him years to claw up to league-average among bigs. That makes him a tough sell, even to a guy like me who would love to see the Cavs add some kind of defensive presence.


As for Garland, well, hopefully you see what I mean when I say his margin for error is small. As we've seen with Sexton, if you're a PG with middling physical tools, it's not enough to be a decent passer, a decent finisher, or a decent shooter...and on defense, it's not enough to simply be competitive on the ball. You have to play near-perfect basketball or else you stick out like a sore thumb.

The Human Q-Tip said:

Watched a good chunk of the Duke game yesterday, so I got my first real look at Zion. I don't pretend to be an expert on college players, but two things jumped out at me:

1) He has really good hands. That's an incredibly important quality for a big man.

2) He needs to drop 15-20 pounds.

Click to expand...

He has a 48 inch vertical and is in incredible shape, I don't think he needs to lose weight, he is huge, but it doesn't slow him down, its really all muscle.

I also think Zion can play SF some, he has good handles and great passing ability. He is a very unique player, Barkley unique and almost as unique as Lebron.

Lee said:

He has a 48 inch vertical and is in incredible shape, I don't think he needs to lose weight, he is huge, but it doesn't slow him down, its really all muscle.

Click to expand...

48? What? I swear, his vertical goes up another inch or two every month

Nathan S said:

48? What? I swear, his vertical goes up another inch or two every month

Click to expand...

There is a tape of him at training camp with duke and they were doing the vert test. They couldn't accurately measure his vert because the stick only went up to 46 inches for him, and he was an inch or two above the line.

Its insane to watch. The guy doesn't jump as high as he can because he is afraid of hitting his head on the rim. True story.

Of course I used to have that problem too back in my day, lol

Lee said:

There is a tape of him at training camp with duke and they were doing the vert test. They couldn't accurately measure his vert because the stick only went up to 46 inches for him, and he was an inch or two above the line.

Its insane to watch. The guy doesn't jump as high as he can because he is afraid of hitting his head on the rim. True story.

Of course I used to have that problem too back in my day, lol

Click to expand...

Pretty sure those things only go up to 12'? If that's true, and we assume he maxed at 12'2" or 12'3", that would put him at a 43"-44" max vert given his 8'7" standing reach.

Alternatively, given that he's 6'7", he'd need at least a 41" max vert to touch his head to the rim...so 43"-44" sounds like a reasonable guess on that front too. 48" would be like putting his chin on the rim, and I don't think he's quite that freaky haha.

Lee said:

He has a 48 inch vertical and is in incredible shape, I don't think he needs to lose weight, he is huge, but it doesn't slow him down, its really all muscle.

Click to expand...

It's a shitload of muscle, but it's not all muscle. I'll bet he loses at least 10 pounds his first year, and will look better/quicker after doing so.

So who are they picking in the 20s?

Kira Lewis Jr has been surprisingly solid this season. As far as I know, he's the only 17-year-old in D1. Just dropped 24/4/7 against Georgia. Almost definitely a 2020 guy for obvious reasons, but we'll see.

Lee said:

I also think Zion can play SF some, he has good handles and great passing ability. He is a very unique player, Barkley unique and almost as unique as Lebron.

Click to expand...

I think you have to draft Zion as a 4.......he makes a lot less sense, to me, as a 3. He can't shoot and he is entirely uncreative dribbling the ball. I just don't think he can play the 3 and drift on the perimeter.....or be tasked with being defended by guys like Giannis, Kawhi, George, etc. Those guys are going to suffocate him away from the basket, if he's trying to put the ball on the floor. And if he's a 3, he's going to be drawn away from the basket a lot on D, further dampening his value as a potential elite rim protector.

Zion's advantage will be running 4's and 5's ragged at the next level. He needs far less creativity to beat bigs off the dribble and his quickness should allow teams to do interesting off the ball screen action and cutting with him, against bigger players who won't be able to defend in space.

You just have to be really talented off the dribble or be a great floor spacer, to survive playing the 3 at the NBA level. Zion is neither of those things.

ajz20 said:

So who are they picking in the 20s?

Click to expand...

My dream scenario is Jontay Porter sliding because of his injury. That's likely a pipe dream.

Guys projected in that 18-22 range that are interesting:

Tre Jones, Kris Wilkes, Brandon Clarke, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Talen Horton-Tucker.

For some reasons Grant Williams is also slotting there on many mock drafts......but I imagine there is no way he sticks in that range by draft day.

Jones is a nice complementary player to Sexton, which makes him really attractive, at least to me....as a PG insurance policy. If Sexton pans out, they mesh well together, if he does not, I really like him as a player who can step in and be a starting lead guard. Almost hedging our best slightly with a nice fit.