2019 NBA Draft

[1B4IGO]

Major-conference guys by ceiling, according to my model (alphabetical within tier):

GOAT ceiling: Zion

All-NBA ceiling: Ponds (Offensive volume/efficiency, outlier steal rate), Williams (high free throw rate, high IQ, functional athleticism)

All-Star ceiling: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, RJ Barrett, Nicolas Claxton, Tyrese Haliburton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ty Jerome, Tre Jones, Chuma Okeke, Justin Robinson, Kaleb Wesson, Cassius Winston

Other than Zion, I think Williams, Barrett, Jones, Alexander-Walker, Ponds, Claxton, Horton-Tucker, and Haliburton could realistically develop into All-Star level players, roughly in order from most to least likely.

Hayes isn't too far off making the cut, but his 0 threes and 0.3 assists per game really hurt his rating

Nathan what makes Ponds the better PG than Morant to you? I've watched Ponds and he's impressive but what makes him such a high end talent for you.

 

[Nathan S]

Nathan what makes Ponds the better PG than Morant to you? I've watched Ponds and he's impressive but what makes him such a high end talent for you.

I don't have Ponds above Morant...I just limited that post to major-conference guys because otherwise there would be *lots* of random minor conference stat-stuffers on it (in addition to Morant).

I do think Ponds is seriously underrated though. He's averaging 20+ points and 5+ assists, and he's one of the rare high-usage PGs who gets more steals than turnovers. Obviously I'm not sure he'll reach his ceiling (I'm thinking something like a better defensive version of healthy IT), but it's hard to imagine him being a bust because he has so few weaknesses.

 

[1B4IGO]

I don't have Ponds above Morant...I just limited that post to major-conference guys because otherwise there would be *lots* of random minor conference stat-stuffers on it (in addition to Morant).

I do think Ponds is seriously underrated though. He's averaging 20+ points and 5+ assists, and he's one of the rare high-usage PGs who gets more steals than turnovers. Obviously I'm not sure he'll reach his ceiling (I'm thinking something like a better defensive version of healthy IT), but it's hard to imagine him being a bust because he has so few weaknesses.

Thanks didn't know you were doing major conference only. I watched Ponds and was very impressed. He doesn't seem to shrink away from wanting the ball in his hands and is quick with great vision and hands. Oddly enough Mullins is a much better coach than GM.

 

[ajz20]

If anyone is into that type of stuff, I try to post prospect cut-ups every day, if not every other day at @preptopros on Twitter..

I keep prospect notes on all the games I watch as well, would be happy to share towards end of year..

Is that website you use to work for even running any more? At one point was it was joe k and sheridan together. What a train reck that was! They pretended to be insiders and only posted during drafts and trade lines.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Anyone have an opinion on Doumbuya? He's back from his hand injury today, but I have no idea how to watch any Euro games live lmao.

Have really not watched any non-NCAA players this year live.

Do you consider him a viable option for the Cavs if they end up picking in the 5-7 range?

@Nathan S
@I'mWithDan

 

[Nathan S]

Anyone have an opinion on Doumbuya? He's back from his hand injury today, but I have no idea how to watch any Euro games live lmao.

Have really not watched any non-NCAA players this year live.

Do you consider him a viable option for the Cavs if they end up picking in the 5-7 range?

@Nathan S
@I'mWithDan

Don't think he's a viable prospect. As I pointed out last year, French League isn't a significantly higher level of competition than major-conference NCAA ball...and his stats there have been very pedestrian. I wouldn't draft him for the same reason I wouldn't draft a raw college freshman who was putting up unremarkable numbers in 15 minutes per game off the bench. Doesn't meet the minimum criteria that would make me want to figure out how to watch him live.

 

[daddywags]

Tuned in to watch Nassir Little and wound up impressed with Coby White.

 

[Nathan S]

One interesting thing about Grant Williams and Goga Bitadze is that they've developed nice chemistry with speedy scoring guards Jordan Bone and Norris Cole respectively. Makes it easy to envision them fitting with Sexton and bringing out the best in him (whatever that may be).

 

[1B4IGO]

Having watched a ton of ACC and Duke games I am certain RJ is a basketball player where Zion is a freak athlete. RJ reminds me of Porter JR before his injury and Zion has no real comparables.

I don't know if Zion's pure athleticism is enough to be elite. I'm not saying he can't I'm just glad I don't have to make the pick.

 

[Rich]

It's more than athleticism. Lots of guys are freak athletes and don't know how to use it. Not that this is the same, but JR Smith was an absolute crazy athlete who just never wanted to do anything other than shoot jumpers.

The steals/blocks numbers are why he's the easy number 1 pick. He has elite athletic ability and he uses it on defense. That's so rare for young players.

I'm also sorta on a kick about guys who impact the game playing help-side defense. Giannis is dominating the league as the best help-side defender. Zion looks to be in that same mold.

As a floor, I think Zion is Josh Smith. I can't see him being any worse than that.

 

[1B4IGO]

If Zion is anything like the Greek I'm all over that. Maybe I'm looking at it through old school or just old eyes.

 

[Rich]

If Zion is anything like the Greek I'm all over that. Maybe I'm looking at it through old school or just old eyes.

I don't think he's THAT because he doesn't have that length. Greek is....something that I personally have never seen. He's like Hakeem only he moves like a guard.

 

[1B4IGO]

I don't think he's THAT because he doesn't have that length. Greek is....something that I personally have never seen. He's like Hakeem only he moves like a guard.

I just watched Zion jump almost from the paint to block a 3 point shot. It was extremely impressive.

 

[Rich]

I just watched Zion jump almost from the paint to block a 3 point shot. It was extremely impressive.

Watched that too.

I hate saying someone has a super high floor. I mean...Greg Oden was supposed to be almost bust proof, but Josh Smith is his floor. That's a high damn floor. Smith was a really good player.

 

[1B4IGO]

Doing this against Virginia is very impressive they are a very talented team.