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2018-2019 Tank Thread

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LeeBuckeye said:
Winnable Games for Suns @ 16-52

Pelicans (2X)
Bulls
Kings
Wizards
Cavaliers
Rockets (resting starters??)
Mavericks

Winnable Games for Cavs @ 16-50

Magic
Mavericks
Suns
Kings
Hornets

Might come down to the Cavs vs Suns on April 1st to determine who gets the worst outcome of dropping to the 6th pick vs the 5th pick. It almost doesn't matter with identical odds for #1 overall (14.0%) and Top 4 (52.1%) while factoring in how weak this draft is outside of the top 4 (really top 3 w/ Zion, RJ and Ja)
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Meanwhile I am struggling to find 2 more wins on the Knicks schedule.
 
bigfoot5415 said:
Meanwhile I am struggling to find 2 more wins on the Knicks schedule.
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Well outside of an away game against the Magic and a home game against the Wizards, they've got LeBron coming to town with Muscala, Bullock and the Fortnite guy next week.

HelplessSleepyIguana-size_restricted.gif
 
I've heard too many times on local media that it doesn't really matter whether the Cavs have the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd best odds this year, since the system was changed to give everyone essentially the same odds at the top.

No, it matters. To me, it's about limiting the downside. If the Cavs can find a way to secure the 2nd slot in the lottery, then our downside is #6. From the 3rd spot, our downside is #7. And of course having the 1st spot means you are guaranteed a top 5 pick.

But I can't see us catching the Knicks at this point. We just need to keep cheering on these surging Suns.
 
Funkmastabuck said:
I've heard too many times on local media that it doesn't really matter whether the Cavs have the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd best odds this year, since the system was changed to give everyone essentially the same odds at the top.

No, it matters. To me, it's about limiting the downside. If the Cavs can find a way to secure the 2nd slot in the lottery, then our downside is #6. From the 3rd spot, our downside is #7. And of course having the 1st spot means you are guaranteed a top 5 pick.

But I can't see us catching the Knicks at this point. We just need to keep cheering on these surging Suns.
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Is this a draft in which the difference between 6th and 7th is that significant?
 
I feel like out of top 3 is.....Zion, Ja/Barrett.
 
Neither Chicago nor Phoenix is prioritizing draft position. Both are actively trying to win games so their team can develop. Suns have defeated Bucks and Warriors very recently. Chicago picked up Porter.

The Knicks went all-in on this summer's free agency so their team is legitimately awful right now.

With the revised lottery odds teams obviously are deemphasizing the tank strategy. The slight chance of drafting 6th or 7th is not critical.
 
I like to look at cumulative odds, I think it tells a better story.

Seed 1st 1-2 1-3 1-4 5+
1 0.250 0.465 0.643 1 1
2 0.199 0.387 0.558 0.877 1
3 0.156 0.313 0.469 0.695 0.96
4 0.119 0.245 0.378 0.477 0.828
5 0.088 0.185 0.292 0.292 0.553

So if we are the 2nd seed we have a 38.7% chance of getting either 1 or 2. If we are 3rd seed that number drops to 31.3%.
 
IWantAKouki said:
I like to look at cumulative odds, I think it tells a better story.

Seed 1st 1-2 1-3 1-4 5+
1 0.250 0.465 0.643 1 1
2 0.199 0.387 0.558 0.877 1
3 0.156 0.313 0.469 0.695 0.96
4 0.119 0.245 0.378 0.477 0.828
5 0.088 0.185 0.292 0.292 0.553

So if we are the 2nd seed we have a 38.7% chance of getting either 1 or 2. If we are 3rd seed that number drops to 31.3%.
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I believe those are the old odds. Here are the new.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
 
Huber. said:
Yep. 48% chance currently to pick 5-7 and miss out on Zion, Morant, Barrett and Reddish.
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And that's as good as it can get even if we lost every game. As long as we're ahead of the Bulls we're fine. Best case scenario is a crap shoot.
 
These guys are really going to beat the Raptors. How is Ibaka losing his mind over Chriss on a 16-win team?
 
Raptors played like trash. They won't make it out of the first round.
 
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