2019 NBA Draft

ajz20 said:

They have the best reputation for scouting international. Giovony travels to Europe often. Again they are far from perfect but I trust them more than others. There is a reason ESPN paid big bucks for them to join, and axed Chad Ford.

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Ozone said:

Cavs big board should be something along these lines
Zion
Morant
Culver
Barrett
Bol
Little
Reddish

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Nathan S said:

Made a new prospect grading rubric...it's similar to the one I used last year, but a little more streamlined I think. There are 6 categories, 3 on offense and 3 on defense, and the idea is you simply add to get a player's overall projected impact. As an example, I graded Zion at the bottom, and I'll do more guys in the future. I will in general be factoring in age when I make these grades, i.e. I'll think about what improvements guys will realistically make between now and when they reach their prime.

EDIT: Oh yeah, I'm thinking in units of +/- per 100 possessions. So +6 and up overall is an MVP candidate, +3 and up is an All-Star, +1 and up is a good starter, -1 and up is a useful rotation guy

Perimeter offense:

+3: An absolutely ridiculous shooter...deadly off the bounce or off the catch with range far beyond the NBA 3-point line.
+2: An elite shooter off the catch and above-average off the dribble, comfortable shooting stepbacks, fading away to get shots off under duress
+1: A very good shooter off the catch with enough off the dribble ability to punish defenders for sagging off of him
+0: A good spot-up shooter but not much more
-1: Can hit a wide open shot just often enough that defenses can't ignore him on the 3-point line
-2: Doesn't attempt threes, or is so inaccurate that defenses are happy to let him take wide-open threes


Interior offense:

+3: A dominant scorer, able to get to the rim at will and finish at an elite level
+2: A very good interior scorer held back slightly either by sub-elite finishing, or by an inability to consistently get to the basket off his own dribble
+1: Same weaknesses as +2, but a little more pronounced, or some combination of the two
+0: Not too much of a threat to create his own offense going to the rim; mostly capitalizes on defensive mistakes to score, or scores on lobs and putbacks
-1: Ability to get to the rim seriously hampered by a lack of athleticism/physicality or a loose handle
-2: A total non-threat to score inside unless left wide open.


Team offense:

+3: The perfect floor general, charismatic, intelligent, every pass from routine to spectacular is delivered with perfect zip and placement
+2: Completely capable of running an offense, great ballhandling and vision, a clear leader on the floor
+1: A clearly above-average passer, can run the offense for stretches but not quite good enough ballhandling/vision to run it full time
+0: A glue-guy level passer, capable of making quick decisions to get the ball to the open man, ball doesn't stick in his hands
-1: A poor passer, may dribble with his head down, may have a selfish streak, may just be a half step slow processing what's going on around him
-2: An seriously bad passer with very poor awareness, may be a black hole scorer type or a very clumsy player who has trouble catching/handling the ball at all



Perimeter defense:

+2: Combination of length and lateral quickness to contain speedy ballhandlers, good contests, quick hands to disrupt
+1: Very good all-around perimeter defender, but not a gamechanger, not someone you'd ideally have guarding a perimeter star
+0: An adequate perimeter defender who doesn't typically guard the ball, but isn't a complete liability switched onto a ballhandling scorer
-1: A below-average perimeter defender with slow feet, may not use his hands well or at all, dies on screens
-2: A hopeless perimeter defender, must be hidden on a non-scoring-threat at all times, poor fundamentals, poor effort


Interior defense:

+2: Elite rebounder and shotblocker, strength and fundamentals to wall off the biggest post players
+1: Very good, but either lacking elite length, lower body strength to reliably hold position, or proper technique
+0: A decent interior defender who will contest shots and put up a fight against dangerous big man scorers but isn't a difference maker
-1: A poor interior defender, may be soft or simply very short, little or no instinct to take charges or contest shots in the paint
-2: A completely useless interior defender, actively gets out of the way, opposing players act like he's not there


Team defense:

+2: Expert at playing passing lanes, never loses track of his man, leads and communicates actively, quick-rotating shot blocking help defender
+1: The typical glue guy defender, a low-mistake player who will pounce on errant passes and get some sneaky blocks
+0: A totally unremarkable off-ball defender, rarely loses track of his man and good general awareness, but doesn't make highlight plays
-1: A somewhat lackadaisical defender, gets caught ball-watching, unwilling or unable to understand advanced defensive schemes
-2: An actively bad team defender, falls asleep or makes terrible gambles, poor effort, rotates late or not at all way too often





Zion Williamson

Perimeter offense: -0.5
Interior offense: +2.5
Team offense: +0

Total offense: +2


Perimeter defense: +1
Interior defense: +1.5
Team defense: +1.5

Total defense: +4


Overall: +6

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Sir'Dom Pointer said:

This post is -10 imho.

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Nathan S said:

Made a new prospect grading rubric...it's similar to the one I used last year, but a little more streamlined I think. There are 6 categories, 3 on offense and 3 on defense, and the idea is you simply add to get a player's overall projected impact. As an example, I graded Zion at the bottom, and I'll do more guys in the future. I will in general be factoring in age when I make these grades, i.e. I'll think about what improvements guys will realistically make between now and when they reach their prime.

EDIT: Oh yeah, I'm thinking in units of +/- per 100 possessions. So +6 and up overall is an MVP candidate, +3 and up is an All-Star, +1 and up is a good starter, -1 and up is a useful rotation guy

Perimeter offense:

+3: An absolutely ridiculous shooter...deadly off the bounce or off the catch with range far beyond the NBA 3-point line.
+2: An elite shooter off the catch and above-average off the dribble, comfortable shooting stepbacks, fading away to get shots off under duress
+1: A very good shooter off the catch with enough off the dribble ability to punish defenders for sagging off of him
+0: A good spot-up shooter but not much more
-1: Can hit a wide open shot just often enough that defenses can't ignore him on the 3-point line
-2: Doesn't attempt threes, or is so inaccurate that defenses are happy to let him take wide-open threes


Interior offense:

+3: A dominant scorer, able to get to the rim at will and finish at an elite level
+2: A very good interior scorer held back slightly either by sub-elite finishing, or by an inability to consistently get to the basket off his own dribble
+1: Same weaknesses as +2, but a little more pronounced, or some combination of the two
+0: Not too much of a threat to create his own offense going to the rim; mostly capitalizes on defensive mistakes to score, or scores on lobs and putbacks
-1: Ability to get to the rim seriously hampered by a lack of athleticism/physicality or a loose handle
-2: A total non-threat to score inside unless left wide open.


Team offense:

+3: The perfect floor general, charismatic, intelligent, every pass from routine to spectacular is delivered with perfect zip and placement
+2: Completely capable of running an offense, great ballhandling and vision, a clear leader on the floor
+1: A clearly above-average passer, can run the offense for stretches but not quite good enough ballhandling/vision to run it full time
+0: A glue-guy level passer, capable of making quick decisions to get the ball to the open man, ball doesn't stick in his hands
-1: A poor passer, may dribble with his head down, may have a selfish streak, may just be a half step slow processing what's going on around him
-2: An seriously bad passer with very poor awareness, may be a black hole scorer type or a very clumsy player who has trouble catching/handling the ball at all



Perimeter defense:

+2: Combination of length and lateral quickness to contain speedy ballhandlers, good contests, quick hands to disrupt
+1: Very good all-around perimeter defender, but not a gamechanger, not someone you'd ideally have guarding a perimeter star
+0: An adequate perimeter defender who doesn't typically guard the ball, but isn't a complete liability switched onto a ballhandling scorer
-1: A below-average perimeter defender with slow feet, may not use his hands well or at all, dies on screens
-2: A hopeless perimeter defender, must be hidden on a non-scoring-threat at all times, poor fundamentals, poor effort


Interior defense:

+2: Elite rebounder and shotblocker, strength and fundamentals to wall off the biggest post players
+1: Very good, but either lacking elite length, lower body strength to reliably hold position, or proper technique
+0: A decent interior defender who will contest shots and put up a fight against dangerous big man scorers but isn't a difference maker
-1: A poor interior defender, may be soft or simply very short, little or no instinct to take charges or contest shots in the paint
-2: A completely useless interior defender, actively gets out of the way, opposing players act like he's not there


Team defense:

+2: Expert at playing passing lanes, never loses track of his man, leads and communicates actively, quick-rotating shot blocking help defender
+1: The typical glue guy defender, a low-mistake player who will pounce on errant passes and get some sneaky blocks
+0: A totally unremarkable off-ball defender, rarely loses track of his man and good general awareness, but doesn't make highlight plays
-1: A somewhat lackadaisical defender, gets caught ball-watching, unwilling or unable to understand advanced defensive schemes
-2: An actively bad team defender, falls asleep or makes terrible gambles, poor effort, rotates late or not at all way too often





Zion Williamson

Perimeter offense: -0.5
Interior offense: +2.5
Team offense: +0

Total offense: +2


Perimeter defense: +1
Interior defense: +1.5
Team defense: +1.5

Total defense: +4


Overall: +6

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I'mWithDan said:

Why would Zion not be a -2 on perimeter offense? As this is described?

At the NBA level, the -2 description is exactly what teams are going to do to him. He’s a bad FT shooter and has attempted sub 40 NBA 3’s. He’s more of an unknown as a shooter with slow, non lift shooting form.....and has not really shown any ability to pull up off the dribble. Given how efficient he is around the rim, I let him hoist 3’s all day if I believe he’s a 30% shooter.

Ignore the -2 if that is harsh, what data is out there that would move him off of a -1 then? And give him a slight bump to -.5? He’s attempted pretty much zero long mid range shots and only has 71 college 3 PT attempts. And even if he’s a 35% 3PT shooter, aren’t teams still going to just say have at it? That’s still only 1.05 PPFGA which will likely be below his numbers inside the arc.

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I'mWithDan said:

Why would Zion not be a -2 on perimeter offense? As this is described?

At the NBA level, the -2 description is exactly what teams are going to do to him. He’s a bad FT shooter and has attempted sub 40 NBA 3’s. He’s more of an unknown as a shooter with slow, non lift shooting form.....and has not really shown any ability to pull up off the dribble. Given how efficient he is around the rim, I let him hoist 3’s all day if I believe he’s a 30% shooter.

Ignore the -2 if that is harsh, what data is out there that would move him off of a -1 then? And give him a slight bump to -.5? He’s attempted pretty much zero long mid range shots and only has 71 college 3 PT attempts. And even if he’s a 35% 3PT shooter, aren’t teams still going to just say have at it? That’s still only 1.05 PPFGA which will likely be below his numbers inside the arc.

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Derek said:

Was wondering the same thing, but didn't want to nit-pick since it was just a half point.

Based solely off college production, he seems to solidly fit the description for -1.

"-1: Can hit a wide open shot just often enough that defenses can't ignore him on the 3-point line"

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Nathan S said:

I think you could make a case for anywhere from -1 to 0 for his perimeter offense. As people have said, he's not Ben Simmons...it's not a viable defensive strategy to pretend that he can't shoot at all, because he can. Yeah, the NBA line is longer, but at age 18 it's reasonable to expect at least a little bit of improvement from him.



Fair enough; I'm certainly factoring in a little bit of expected improvement when I give him -0.5 there, and you could make a good case that improvement is unlikely or impossible without completely reworking his mechanics, which is a longshot.

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I'mWithDan said:

I was more just curious. Ratings don’t have to be followed explicitly and what you described is a more optimistic view of him, which I would probably lean towards as well....just wanted to hear some thoughts by you and anyone else who wanted to chime in.

Zion really doesn’t need to be a great 3 point shooter but I do think he needs to be confident enough to take a late 3, in a 2 point game and instill enough fear in the defense he can make it...... So that he can pump and create space or defensive hesitation.

Right now, I would argue he does not have that ability.....which is fine, he doesn’t need it at 18 ....but it is tougher for me to imagine it given how he shoots, mechanically. But he’s so young that it’s hard to be definitive.

For me, he needs to either quicken his release or use his legs to generate enough lift that he can reliably get a slower shot off. I don’t think he needs to start over entirely, those usually aren’t successful endeavors but he should make a conscience decision to choose one of the release / lifts options.

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Alec Zander said:

Interesting starting point but for more accurate OVERALL, certain categories need to be weighted heavier than others. Team defense is more important than individual defense, for example.

Cool idea if we’re targeting specific skillsets tho!

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