It's not ideal, but it's certainly not uncommon for top-10 picks to end their college careers on a bad note. Last year Ayton shat the bed in a blowout first round loss to Buffalo. Jaren Jackson had 2 points in just 15 minutes of playing time in his final game. Games like that shouldn't be completely ignored, of course, but they shouldn't completely define a prospect either.
One game sample vs. four game sample is significantly different though. Four games is a little over 10% of Culver’s games played on the season.
Any good player can have a single bad game at any time.....but it is uncommon for a good player to have four bad games in a short period of time and certainly it would be very uncommon for them all to come in a row during a key stretch.
I don’t view it as disqualifying but I do think it underscores the desire to over value
someone in a draft that has had almost the entire mid lottery spectacularly bomb out.
Culver isn’t a bad prospect but he’s not a typical top 5 selection. To me, he’s more of a 9-11 guy in a good draft. More safer, projectable outcome as a secondary off ball scorer who can defend at the NBA level...but a player that just doesn’t blow you away at all.
Hunter can be classified similarly for NBA purposes but I think he’s just a better version of Culver’s most likely outcome (secondary off ball scorer who can defend at the NBA level). That is why I prefer him a bit more. If I’m getting that, give me the bigger, longer, more athletic player, who’s additionally a far better shooter.
The stats weren’t even the thing that was concerning, it was how hard he had to work to get anywhere on the floor. He just lacks the dribble burst necessary to try to be a non shooting scorer at the next level.....and for his size, he’s not a very physical player. Throughout the year, he was able to mask that burst deficiency with his length but as the teams got better and the players bigger, he just started looking more average physically.....and length alone became less and less of an advantage.
To take him in the top 5, you have to believe that his freshman 3PT shooting is more indicative of his shooting projection, which I think is a huge stretch given his mechanics and FT shooting. And without plus shooting, I just really struggle to envision how he consistently scores at the NBA level.