The thing about #5 and picks from 4-10 is that there may not be a player with the crazy upside (though that can surprise at times - Curry was 7, Giannis was 15, Kawhi was 15, etc), many of those players don't have the same floor. Not that the floor for Zion is low, but if he is merely good it can be disappointing to a fan base and he can be branded as a flop. For a recent Top Three player I think Jaylen Brown. He's a good player but there's also a level of disappointment so far. I think we'd all agree that Jamal Murray, the #7 pick, is a better player.
Let's take that draft and the top three: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, and Jaylen Brown. A case could be made that Jamal Murray - a guy available at #5 - is a better long term bet than any of those three. Simmons couldn't shoot his way out of a paper bag. Ingram did improve this year, but there are some issues. Brown is good but he has yet to grow into the player some hoped he would be. He's certainly not a face of as franchise guy.
Neither is Murray - but guys taken out of the top three don't have the pressure of being that guy.
If you're the Cavs you hope for this:
- You get a player that can grow and be coached at 5 that will be able to work as a start on a playoff team.
- You get a player that can be a solid rotational guy at 26 that also can be coached.
- Sexton continues to grow, responds to Beilein and takes a step forward as a passer and defender - doesn't have to be great, just needs to show he can grow.
- Cedi does the same as above.
- Nance also shows some growth.
- Zizic also shows some growth.
- Love stays relatively healthy and plays in 50 games or so.
- Ending contract assets are trained for more youth/draft picks.
Hopefully Beilein is able to develop guys with his staff. Other assets can add to guys that can be rotational players or good starters.
And then you hope for the ping pong ball. You hope to get into the 30 win range and be next season's Lakers, Grizzlies, or Pelicans - to get that shot to draft a massive upside player that can be the Batman to a team with a couple of Robins and some good roleplayers.
Or maybe you hit the lotto in another way and you find the best player in the draft at 5. That IS possible. It means you need to do your work to make sure you pick the BEST guy in your slot.
I think Altman ended up doing a pretty good job at that last year. Maybe Shai will be better than Sexton - but that's far from guaranteed. Maybe Porter will be, but he lost a full year of development.
And maybe the Cavs add assets and trade back. I doubt that, but you never know.