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There was an article awhile ago that I shared with @TyGuy. It talked about how DBPM is a really strong translatable stat over the long-term, both in college and the NBA. I think the reason on-off numbers are valuable is that they are one of the better proxies we have for off-ball defense.Projection on defense is tough but you can give yourself better odds of finding a defender by looking at things like DBPM and ON/OFF numbers. With some certainty, you'd imagine that a player who is above a certain threshold on DBPM and also had good defensive ON/OFF numbers, has a good chance of being an average or better NBA defender......which is the goal with any player who can potentially add plus value on offense. Probably even more certainty if that player plays hard, has a big frame, is athletic as well, etc.
Even if you just assume Hunter is a a 0-1 on DRPM/DBPM, he has value if his shooting translates like it should. He'd effectively be Tobias Harris, which is a valuable player on a rookie scale deal. If he's a 1+ DRPM, you're already creeping in to top 10 SF potential. It just doesn't take that much at the small forward position.....it's just so top heavy right now. Mikal Bridges was almost a DRPM wash as a rookie and Hunter is bigger and longer......they had similar DBPM, DWS numbers in college. Bridges a better DBPM, Hunter a better DWS. It's reasonable to think Hunter's more solidly built frame and added length will allow him to be a bit better than Bridges -.60 on defense....and if that is the case, plus his shooting....that is already a useful player on that end. I think Windler is a notch (or two) below but similarly encouraging.....good DWS numbers, solid DBPM for a #1 offensive option, plays hard, length, athletic. I just think it's a good bet he's average on defense, which would keep him on the floor.
I think translating defense at SF is the easiest position.....just by using cursory stats, gauging effort / physical measurables and some common sense.....because there are so few good NBA SF's. Only like 3 of them even matter on offense and one just blew out their achilles. I think it's harder everywhere else but I would be fairly confident you can look at the SF position and pick out the best defenders on a semi regular basis.
And I agree with your analysis on Hunter... I don't know why people think I was being critical, because I do like Hunter as a prospect and thought he would have been a good pick for the Cavs. All I was saying is that on-ball defense does not translate as well to the NBA because of player caliber, and this explains why Hunter was overvalued by NBA teams compared to quantitative assessments.