Dylan “Breaking” Windler is a Laker. How much help does LeBron need!?

[Jordan]

Projection on defense is tough but you can give yourself better odds of finding a defender by looking at things like DBPM and ON/OFF numbers. With some certainty, you'd imagine that a player who is above a certain threshold on DBPM and also had good defensive ON/OFF numbers, has a good chance of being an average or better NBA defender......which is the goal with any player who can potentially add plus value on offense. Probably even more certainty if that player plays hard, has a big frame, is athletic as well, etc.

Even if you just assume Hunter is a a 0-1 on DRPM/DBPM, he has value if his shooting translates like it should. He'd effectively be Tobias Harris, which is a valuable player on a rookie scale deal. If he's a 1+ DRPM, you're already creeping in to top 10 SF potential. It just doesn't take that much at the small forward position.....it's just so top heavy right now. Mikal Bridges was almost a DRPM wash as a rookie and Hunter is bigger and longer......they had similar DBPM, DWS numbers in college. Bridges a better DBPM, Hunter a better DWS. It's reasonable to think Hunter's more solidly built frame and added length will allow him to be a bit better than Bridges -.60 on defense....and if that is the case, plus his shooting....that is already a useful player on that end. I think Windler is a notch (or two) below but similarly encouraging.....good DWS numbers, solid DBPM for a #1 offensive option, plays hard, length, athletic. I just think it's a good bet he's average on defense, which would keep him on the floor.

I think translating defense at SF is the easiest position.....just by using cursory stats, gauging effort / physical measurables and some common sense.....because there are so few good NBA SF's. Only like 3 of them even matter on offense and one just blew out their achilles. I think it's harder everywhere else but I would be fairly confident you can look at the SF position and pick out the best defenders on a semi regular basis.

There was an article awhile ago that I shared with @TyGuy. It talked about how DBPM is a really strong translatable stat over the long-term, both in college and the NBA. I think the reason on-off numbers are valuable is that they are one of the better proxies we have for off-ball defense.

And I agree with your analysis on Hunter... I don't know why people think I was being critical, because I do like Hunter as a prospect and thought he would have been a good pick for the Cavs. All I was saying is that on-ball defense does not translate as well to the NBA because of player caliber, and this explains why Hunter was overvalued by NBA teams compared to quantitative assessments.

 

[Nathan S]

He's a number one option which he won't be asked to be at this level. Didn't he get 14 rebounds in that 7 point game? I think his teammate got 29 because he was left alone the whole game. If he can draw that attention on our team Garland or Sexton will cook them

2.5 assists is good too. Seems like he knows how to impact the game if his shot isn't falling. That is nice. Not totally one dimensional. Coming off screens he just looks so good. Could be a late bloomer, I mean he didn't play AAU until his senior year of high school and juts got better every year in college.

Definitely the type of Senior you take a flyer on.

He got 11 rebounds in that game...he's been a consistently great rebounder regardless of competition as far as I know...just really has a nose for the ball. I really doubt that he'll be much of a creator at the NBA level, but definitely a guy defenses have to respect both in the paint and behind the 3-point line, which gives our offense a lot of flexibility.

Personally I would've preferred to bundle assets and move up for a higher ceiling guy in the 11-20 range, but Windler is a pretty good pick in the late 20's.

 

[NMCav]

He got 11 rebounds in that game...he's been a consistently great rebounder regardless of competition as far as I know...just really has a nose for the ball. I really doubt that he'll be much of a creator at the NBA level, but definitely a guy defenses have to respect both in the paint and behind the 3-point line, which gives our offense a lot of flexibility.

Personally I would've preferred to bundle assets and move up for a higher ceiling guy in the 11-20 range, but Windler is a pretty good pick in the late 20's.

With what Beilein wants to do who was picked in the 11-20 range that fits better then Windler? They clearly had 2 targets after Garland. A Shooter and Kevin Porter Jr. The only shooters picked between 11-20 were Cam Johnson and Tyler Herro. I could argue Windler has more upside then both. In terms of fit the only guy picked between 11-20 that has higher upside in Beileins system would be Goga Bitadze or Luka Samanic. Guys like Langford or Doumbouya have higher upside but weren't fits in Beileins system. The fact that we didn't move up for Langford is telling to me Beilein has been watching him since he was in HS. Chuma is another guy I think they would have targeted if not for the torn ACL. They clearly wanted to add guys who could stretch the floor and Windler was the best option out of Cam Johnson, Tyler Herro, and Windler.

 

[Nathan S]

With what Beilein wants to do who was picked in the 11-20 range that fits better then Windler? They clearly had 2 targets after Garland. A Shooter and Kevin Porter Jr. The only shooters picked between 11-20 were Cam Johnson and Tyler Herro. I could argue Windler has more upside then both. In terms of fit the only guy picked between 11-20 that has higher upside in Beileins system would be Goga Bitadze or Luka Samanic. Guys like Langford or Doumbouya have higher upside but weren't fits in Beileins system. The fact that we didn't move up for Langford is telling to me Beilein has been watching him since he was in HS. Chuma is another guy I think they would have targeted if not for the torn ACL. They clearly wanted to add guys who could stretch the floor and Windler was the best option out of Cam Johnson, Tyler Herro, and Windler.

What about Washington? I'd point to him and Bitadze as higher upside 2-way guys we could've had.

 

[NMCav]

What about Washington? I'd point to him and Bitadze as higher upside 2-way guys we could've had.

I pointed out Bitadze. I said for Beileins system 2 guys picked between 11-20 with higher upside would be Bitadze and Luka Samanic.

As for Washington I don't think hes gonna be good in the NBA. He really doesn't have a stand out skill that makes you go wow this is going to translate to the next level. Hes a bigger lesser skilled and lesser athletic version of who the Hornets took last year in Bridges. Hes a tweener who just doesn't seem like hes gonna be anything more then average. Also the rumors are we would get the 13th pick and PJ Washington was picked 12th. I never heard any rumors about us getting the 11th or 12th picks. If your high on Washington thats cool I just don't see it. Out of the 3 Kentucky guys drafted I felt he was the worst one and he oddly went before Herro and Keldon.

 

[Nathan S]

I pointed out Bitadze. I said for Beileins system 2 guys picked between 11-20 with higher upside would be Bitadze and Luka Samanic.

As for Washington I don't think hes gonna be good in the NBA. He really doesn't have a stand out skill that makes you go wow this is going to translate to the next level. Hes a bigger lesser skilled and lesser athletic version of who the Hornets took last year in Bridges. Hes a tweener who just doesn't seem like hes gonna be a star. Also the rumors are we would get the 13th pick and PJ Washington was picked 12th. I never heard any rumors about us getting the 11th or 12th picks. If your high on Washington thats cool I just don't see it. Out of the 3 Kentucky guys drafted I felt he was the worst one and he oddly went before Herro and Keldon.

Fair critique, though I do think he's a pretty stout defensive PF at 6'8" 230 with a 7'2" wingspan (in contrast to Bridges who I also considered a "bad" tweener last year). I felt Washington was the clear leader on that Kentucky team, which is something I value. Agree that it's possibly a moot point because we was drafted before the range where we could've realistically traded up to, and because Bitadze's a much better prospect anyway.

 

[Cavatt]

What about Washington? I'd point to him and Bitadze as higher upside 2-way guys we could've had.

Maybe Washington, but I have my doubts. Might have been able to get Bitadze with the Heat Pick if they were game, I don't know.

I have the feeling they would have taken Porter Jr if they had traded.

 

[NMCav]

Fair critique, though I do think he's a pretty stout defensive PF at 6'8" 230 with a 7'2" wingspan (in contrast to Bridges who I also considered a "bad" tweener last year). I felt Washington was the clear leader on that Kentucky team, which is something I value. Agree that it's possibly a moot point because we was drafted before the range where we could've realistically traded up to, and because Bitadze's a much better prospect anyway.

I agree Goga had higher upside then Windler. But I think the team was clearly looking for a shooter. Beilein loves shooters and we have zero shooters on the roster. Besides we ended up getting KPJ at 30 who has higher upside then anyone picked between 11-20 and also has higher upside then Windler. It all worked out in the end. They wanted to add shooting this year for Coach B. Time will tell if it was the right move but for his system to be successful we need snipers and we got the one Koby believes is the best shooter in the draft.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Kevin Porter Jr. was actually a good man to man defender at USC the issue was off ball. Thats where KPJ really needs to improve his game on both sides of the ball. He's a good with the ball on offense and a gritty on ball defender. But off ball on defense he lacks awareness and effort and off ball on offense he just stands around.

That sounds like Dion Waiters 2.0.

 

[Cavatt]

I agree Goga had higher upside then Windler. But I think the team was clearly looking for a shooter. Beilein loves shooters and we have zero shooters on the roster. Besides we ended up getting KPJ at 30 who has higher upside then anyone picked between 11-20 and also has higher upside then Windler. It all worked out in the end. They wanted to add shooting this year for Coach B. Time will tell if it was the right move but for his system to be successful we need snipers and we got the one Koby believes is the best shooter in the draft.

It's hard not to believe he is one of the best shooters. Percentage volume, and then you look at the tape and he is 3 feet behind the line. His ability to get it off on the step back and in motion looks really advanced to me. We will see about better defenders, but he looks like he is really good at creating separation.

 

[Nathan S]

I agree Goga had higher upside then Windler. But I think the team was clearly looking for a shooter. Beilein loves shooters and we have zero shooters on the roster. Besides we ended up getting KPJ at 30 who has higher upside then anyone picked between 11-20 and also has higher upside then Windler. It all worked out in the end. They wanted to add shooting this year for Coach B. Time will tell if it was the right move but for his system to be successful we need snipers and we got the one Koby believes is the best shooter in the draft.

Not sure what you're trying to say here. Three returning starters are good or great shooters (Sexton, Cedi, Love), and overall the Cavs were a pretty alright 3-point shooting team last year. Plus, Goga's one of the best 3-point shooting centers to come into the NBA...and 3-point shooting centers are much rarer than 3-point shooting wings.

Also don't agree that KPJ has higher upside than Windler. I think people are assuming that because he has this checkered past and difficult personality there must be greatness somewhere underneath. But what if there's really just mediocrity underneath? He didn't even have the one token 30-point outburst you expect from that kind of prospect. His season was just a dozen or so highlight-reel plays with a whole lot of bad basketball in between.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Not sure what you're trying to say here. Three returning starters are good or great shooters (Sexton, Cedi, Love), and overall the Cavs were a pretty alright 3-point shooting team last year. Plus, Goga's one of the best 3-point shooting centers to come into the NBA...and 3-point shooting centers are much rarer than 3-point shooting wings.

Also don't agree that KPJ has higher upside than Windler. I think people are assuming that because he has this checkered past and difficult personality there must be greatness somewhere underneath. But what if there's really just mediocrity underneath? He didn't even have the one token 30-point outburst you expect from that kind of prospect. His season was just a dozen or so highlight-reel plays with a whole lot of bad basketball in between.

I personally think intangibles are critical to assessing someone's realistic upside. They can't just be waved away as being fixable by a coach any more than you can wave away T-Rex arms.

 

[Nathan S]

I personally think intangibles are critical to assessing someone's realistic upside. They can't just be waved away as being fixable by a coach any more than you can wave away T-Rex arms.

Agree with that, and generally don't understand the appeal of a tough shot maker type who doesn't realistically appear to be an elite shooter. Jordan Clarkson vibes all the way...

 

[Man Called X]

Met a time traveler last night at the bar.

You'll all be happy to know that in at least one timeline that may or may not happen, Windler was our stud from the draft that people wondered how he fell to 26. Like at that point in the future, he had been in 6 all star games. So. I'm just reporting what I was told.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I saw Lee was getting the business for comparing Windler to Klay Thompson, but I don't really think it's unfair to compare Washington State Klay Thompson to the player Windler is right now.

Klay Thompson College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Klay Thompson - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

Klay had a terrible team around him in college, so he had to handle the ball more than he really should have. His shooting numbers and scoring totals were very strong, especially considering all the attention he drew from the defense. What most people forget was that Thompson wasn't much of a defender until his second year in the NBA. Mark Jackson really lit a fire under him because physically, Curry was such a limited perimeter defender. They needed Thompson to take the best opposing guard night in and night out, and he learned to be a strong defender on the fly. Windler has better measurables, but like Thompson, he was responsible for over 30% of his teams' offense. In the NBA, the role will force him to work on his defense.