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With the draft being only a couple of weeks away and there being rumors of the Cavs trying to buy there way / trade their way into the draft, whether it be the late 1st or lotto, I figured it was time to starting talk draft and draft prospects..
To start it out, Chard Ford had a good article he wrote today:
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I'm personally really hoping that the Cavs are able to get up high enough to snag Cousins or Monroe, which will be really hard to do... If they can't, the next two guys I'd love to see them target are Xavier Henry and Paul George..
After that, the water really starts to muddy with the potential big man prospects.. Orton, Whiteside, Aldrich, and even Alabi/Seraphian have red flags but also have potential..
The late 1st really intrigues me with the number of offensive minded wing/guard players... Anderson, Bledsoe, Williams, Jones, Warren and Poindexter are all really talented guards who can contribute right away if they go to the right team..
It'll be interesting to see if the Cavs can buy or trade their way into the 1st round... While I hope they can get up high enough to get Monroe or Cousins, it's more realistic to think about late 1st round/early 2nd round guys..
As far as position wise, I see them either going for a center or a shooting guard... The Cavs have both the PF and SF positions pretty well set for the present and the future, should LeBron stay, so it doesn't make too much sense to grab someone at those positions... The Cavs do have a need at point guard and could have an even bigger one if Delonte and/or Mo are traded but there aren't really any good point guards past Wall... I really don't see too many PGs that would fit what we need... If anything, there are more combo guards (Terico White, Mikhail Torrance, Bledsoe, etc.) that would fit rather than PGs...
With all that said, I really do think they can get a quality player at various points in this draft... Let's hope Chris Grant can prove to be a good drafter if he gets a pick...
To start it out, Chard Ford had a good article he wrote today:
A peek inside teams' numbers
June, 8, 2010
By Chad Ford
A number of old-school GMs remain dismissive when it comes to using stats to evaluate draft prospects, but more and more NBA teams are employing stat gurus to develop formulas that can predict pro success.
Some of them run teams, like the Houston Rockets' Daryl Morey. Others, like Dean Oliver of the Nuggets, have been key consultants for years. And a handful of other teams are getting into the stat game for the first time.
Teams are using everything from projected PER (player efficiency rating) to WARP (wins over replacement player), EWA (estimated wins added), and all sorts of variations and compilations of formulas to project NBA success. Every team has its own system, and they rarely produce exactly the same results.
Our own John Hollinger recently weighed in with his Draft Rater formula to break down the 2010 prospects.
John Hollinger's Top 10
Draft prospects as ranked by projected PER
1. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky - 16.14
2. Evan Turner, Ohio State - 14.79
3. John Wall, Kentucky - 14.68
4. Greg Monroe, Georgetown - 14.39
5. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech - 13.98
6. Xavier Henry, Kansas - 13.52
7. Luke Babbitt, Nevada - 13.35
8. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest - 13.30
9. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse - 13.03
10. Greivis Vasquez, Maryland - 12.97
Hollinger's top 10 closely mirrors the top 10 on our Big Board, with the exception of Greivis Vasquez, who falls outside our top 30.
I talked to three NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top-10 lists as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.
I then aggregated those lists, and here's a look at what they came up with:
Metric-minded GMs' Top 10
Draft prospects as ranked by our three stat-head GMs.
1. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky
2. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech
3. Evan Turner, Ohio State
4. Greg Monroe, Georgetown
5. John Wall, Kentucky
6. Xavier Henry, Kansas
7. Luke Babbitt, Nevada
8. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
9. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse
10. Ed Davis, North Carolina
This group matches up closely with Hollinger's findings and is even more in line with the top 10 on our Big Board. Each team had an outlier the other two teams didn't rank as highly. One team had Cole Aldrich ranked in the top five. Another had Manny Harris and Gordon Hayward in the top 10.
There are a few other things to note. The first is that, by statistical measurements at least, it looks like Greg Monroe should be going higher than No. 9 -- where we have him projected in our mock draft right now. The same holds true for Henry, whom we currently have at No. 15. The love also keeps on coming for Luke Babbitt, who I believe is now seriously in the discussion for Utah at No. 9.
One guy who isn't getting any love is Ekpe Udoh. That's because Udoh is already 23 years old, and virtually all of the stat gurus view that as a problem. Players who are older than 22 when they are drafted have terrible track records in the NBA. That works against him in virtually every formula out there.
June, 8, 2010
By Chad Ford
A number of old-school GMs remain dismissive when it comes to using stats to evaluate draft prospects, but more and more NBA teams are employing stat gurus to develop formulas that can predict pro success.
Some of them run teams, like the Houston Rockets' Daryl Morey. Others, like Dean Oliver of the Nuggets, have been key consultants for years. And a handful of other teams are getting into the stat game for the first time.
Teams are using everything from projected PER (player efficiency rating) to WARP (wins over replacement player), EWA (estimated wins added), and all sorts of variations and compilations of formulas to project NBA success. Every team has its own system, and they rarely produce exactly the same results.
Our own John Hollinger recently weighed in with his Draft Rater formula to break down the 2010 prospects.
John Hollinger's Top 10
Draft prospects as ranked by projected PER
1. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky - 16.14
2. Evan Turner, Ohio State - 14.79
3. John Wall, Kentucky - 14.68
4. Greg Monroe, Georgetown - 14.39
5. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech - 13.98
6. Xavier Henry, Kansas - 13.52
7. Luke Babbitt, Nevada - 13.35
8. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest - 13.30
9. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse - 13.03
10. Greivis Vasquez, Maryland - 12.97
Hollinger's top 10 closely mirrors the top 10 on our Big Board, with the exception of Greivis Vasquez, who falls outside our top 30.
I talked to three NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top-10 lists as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.
I then aggregated those lists, and here's a look at what they came up with:
Metric-minded GMs' Top 10
Draft prospects as ranked by our three stat-head GMs.
1. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky
2. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech
3. Evan Turner, Ohio State
4. Greg Monroe, Georgetown
5. John Wall, Kentucky
6. Xavier Henry, Kansas
7. Luke Babbitt, Nevada
8. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
9. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse
10. Ed Davis, North Carolina
This group matches up closely with Hollinger's findings and is even more in line with the top 10 on our Big Board. Each team had an outlier the other two teams didn't rank as highly. One team had Cole Aldrich ranked in the top five. Another had Manny Harris and Gordon Hayward in the top 10.
There are a few other things to note. The first is that, by statistical measurements at least, it looks like Greg Monroe should be going higher than No. 9 -- where we have him projected in our mock draft right now. The same holds true for Henry, whom we currently have at No. 15. The love also keeps on coming for Luke Babbitt, who I believe is now seriously in the discussion for Utah at No. 9.
One guy who isn't getting any love is Ekpe Udoh. That's because Udoh is already 23 years old, and virtually all of the stat gurus view that as a problem. Players who are older than 22 when they are drafted have terrible track records in the NBA. That works against him in virtually every formula out there.
* * * * * * *
I'm personally really hoping that the Cavs are able to get up high enough to snag Cousins or Monroe, which will be really hard to do... If they can't, the next two guys I'd love to see them target are Xavier Henry and Paul George..
After that, the water really starts to muddy with the potential big man prospects.. Orton, Whiteside, Aldrich, and even Alabi/Seraphian have red flags but also have potential..
The late 1st really intrigues me with the number of offensive minded wing/guard players... Anderson, Bledsoe, Williams, Jones, Warren and Poindexter are all really talented guards who can contribute right away if they go to the right team..
It'll be interesting to see if the Cavs can buy or trade their way into the 1st round... While I hope they can get up high enough to get Monroe or Cousins, it's more realistic to think about late 1st round/early 2nd round guys..
As far as position wise, I see them either going for a center or a shooting guard... The Cavs have both the PF and SF positions pretty well set for the present and the future, should LeBron stay, so it doesn't make too much sense to grab someone at those positions... The Cavs do have a need at point guard and could have an even bigger one if Delonte and/or Mo are traded but there aren't really any good point guards past Wall... I really don't see too many PGs that would fit what we need... If anything, there are more combo guards (Terico White, Mikhail Torrance, Bledsoe, etc.) that would fit rather than PGs...
With all that said, I really do think they can get a quality player at various points in this draft... Let's hope Chris Grant can prove to be a good drafter if he gets a pick...
fucck that never again.