2016-2017 Around The NBA

[shoes22]

Houston has objectively been better than us so far this season. Hell, Utah has a better point differential (before tonights game). Toronto has a similar point differential. Washington and Boston seems a little overvalued, but not egregiously so.

Beyond that, it isn't taking into account JR or Love returning to form. Smith has basically been a zero for us all year: he was bad pre injury then out for a long time. If he comes back as last year's JR, that's a huge boost, but no way for that a huge if. Similar story with Love returning to form. This is in part captured by the fact they have 2 different models. The one that was posted takes player trajectories into account, thus the Cavs get dinged for the uncertainty of Love and JR. Their outlook looks a little better when you use the model that just takes game outcomes into account and ignores player trajectories.

538's model also uses future travel as an input, and given that the Cavs a lot of future road games, their score gets dinged a bit.

Now, the Cavs real odds are probably higher because of the chill mode effect. If you are going to criticize a model for not correcting for chill mode, go right ahead.

This is true, and something I noticed when developing my own model is that 538 and a lot of the other popular season predictor models do a poor job accounting for situations where players rest or sit out games, and the models that use player stats for game projections don’t do a good enough job projecting expected minutes per game and with which lineups a player plays those minutes.

Because the Cavs haven’t played with a completely full and healthy roster since December (and their seasonal ELO projection model doesn’t account for which players will play in a game 2 weeks from now), it completely skews their projections to the point where they’re not reliable for certain teams.

Their adjusted ELO model thinks that we’ll finish the season with the same record as Boston (which may very well happen) but that Boston will get the 1 seed and also have better odds to make it out of the East than us, which is crazy.

 

[Simon]

Just not a good signing by Memphis.

 

[Cement]

Durant is traveling with the team agai. Spurs thing was fun for five minutes, but were playing Golden State.

Yeah the Spurs backcourt is horrendous and they've run out of gas the last 2 playoffs - I see no reason this year will be any different. I doubt they make the conference finals.

 

[Real Deal]

Celtics are on the verge of losing to Philadelphia, down 5 and 1 minute left.

 

[MarkyCavs88]

Dario Saric having good game vs celtics

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Durant is traveling with the team agai. Spurs thing was fun for five minutes, but were playing Golden State.

That's a funny way to spell THE JAZZ

 

[Ohio]

Celtics lose to The Process!

 

[MarkyCavs88]

Back to 3 games more than us in the Loss Column

 

[InBoobieWeTrust]

Huge loss for Boston. Have to play Washington tomorrow on a B2B, Isiah is still not 100%, gonna be a tough game even if he plays.

If Thomas has any setbacks with that injury you have to wonder if maybe the Celtics just concede the 1 seed to let him get fully healthy before the playoffs since they're not super likely to get it anyway.

 

[Zog]

Keep in mind we also play the Celtics again before the end of the year, so theoretically if we take care of business in that game, we will have 4 fewer losses.

 

[CHIMOCHIS]

Lmao at celtics

Like I said before
I want to get the first seed by 1 game on the wizards or celtics

I want it to sting for them sons of bitches

Hell I'll take a tie record too as long as we have the tiebreaker
Make it sweet

 

[Ohio]

Apparently Waiters Island is hurt again. This team even more than the previous time. Heat have been dreadful without him this season. Gonna be hard for them to make the playoffs now.

 

[Zeus69]

This is kinda fun.

 

[InBoobieWeTrust]

This is kinda fun.

Not just being a homer, but how does anyone beat Bron and Kyrie? No chance.

 

[redscoon]

Who greenlighted KG having his own segment? He can barely string two coherent thoughts together. Poor Larry, having to try and decipher these unintelligible questions he is being asked.