2016 Game #11 | #2 Ohio State @ Michigan State | November 19th, 2016 @ 12 PM

[Ohio]

Bama's offense isn't exactly a juggernaut either. I think our defense would be able to hold its own against them.

 

[billmac91]

It's important to keep in mind that Urban is one of the best game planners in all of football when given time to prepare for a single opponent. Alabama has shown little offensively that truly worries me, especially considering how well our D has performed.

Their defense is scary good and if we don't take chances, then I agree it will be a long day for us.

We will see how this weekend goes. MSU has had a porous OL all year due to lack of experience. LJ Scott man-handled us as we were poor to shed blocks and didn't have the beef up front to clog holes.

Michigan and Bama give me the same worries. They will run downhill between the tackles, and we'll be prepared to stop it, I'm just not sure we can consistently do it. Individually I like all of the guys we rotate along the line, but we're light in the pants and prone to getting run at. Deveon Smith is average IMO, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has himself a day on Saturday.

 

[col63onel]

Vanilla play-calling in poor weather conditions - This is one of the only negatives i've witnessed with Urban at the helm. He tends to rely on Barrett's running ability when the weather conditions are poor.

It always seems to be the case that when the offense struggles, you look up and Barrett had more carries than Samuel/Webber combined and more pass attempts than Samuel/Webber have combined touches.

 

[Kbiz]

It always seems to be the case that when the offense struggles, you look up and Barrett had more carries than Samuel/Webber combined and more pass attempts than Samuel/Webber have combined touches.

This seems to be common theme in Urban's personal coaching pillars. He has always relied heavily on the player(s) he trusts the most, especially when games get tight, which inevitably can hinder the team's ability to establish a consistently dynamic offensive identity.

You can't argue with it when its working b/c we've witnessed the success. However, there have been a few instances where it bites us in the ass (Barrett receiving more carries than Elliot in last year's MSU game...Urban's reluctance to call downfield throws on 3rd and longs this year)

 

[TheLand1287]

Makes sense. I did see they tend to really lean on him as a runner against better defenses. I think he averaged 20+ carries in the games against PSU, MSU, Wiscy, IU, etc. The per attempt numbers weren't great overall but if you can scratch out 3.5-4 YPC with a QB, it's easier yardage than some of the alternatives.

Will be interesting to see if Michigan opts for a heavy dose of man. They may just move the safety down and dare Barrett to throw. That game plan probably results in something on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of possible results but if they don't force the action early, given the passing results in some of those games, I would be disappointed.

I'd live with Barrett throwing for 250-300 yards vs. letting OSU just opt to zone-read them to death all game. Michigan hasn't been great against the more mobile QB's, so I'm sure Ohio State will try to press the run game early with Barrett.

Is OSU generally healthy on D right now?

Yes, they are. They lost a few players like Tracy Sprinkle (DT), Dante Booker (LB), and Justin Hilliard (LB) but those all happened way earlier in the season, like back in September.

They were without Corey Smith (WR) and Dontre Wilson (H-Back) this past weekend, but Smith has been playing injured all year and has really only been put in games for blocking purposes. Snarky Buckeye fans would probably say something negative about Wilson anyway, but he's been one of the few veterans on offense for the team and has 400 yards and 6 TDs rushing/receiving.

Also, to other people's points on J.T.'s excessive use as a runner... after the MSU game he now has only 2 less carries than Mike Weber for the entire season. 166 for Weber to 164 for Barrett. Next after that is Curtis Samuel at 84 and Demario McCall (mostly in garbage time) at 49.

Weber 6.3 ypc
Barrett 4.4 ypc
Samuel 7.7 ypc
McCall 5.5 ypc

Like someone else said.. the only hope I have as an OSU fan is they have been keeping Samuel's workload light and not showing many wrinkles on offense because they're saving both for The Game. I can't think of any other logical reason other than they just trust J.T. to not fumble with the ball in his hands over Weber, Samuel, McCall. They should have Weber in the backfield and Samuel/McCall in motion FAR more often. Gives the defense 3 things to worry about (QB run with JT, hand off to Weber, pitch to H-Back) rather than just 2 (QB run, RB hand off). Hell, even guys like Paris Campbell have shown playmaking ability when given the ball in space on a quick pitch (4 carries, 54 yards, and only a long of 24) but it happens far less often than it should. The play calling is just bland and unimaginative, and that's why they put up mediocre numbers against solid defenses, but the talent alone on offense is too much for the Rutgers and Maryland's of the world.

 

[Kbiz]

Even though it does seem we've recently reverted to predictable play calling with a heavy focus on QB-designed runs, JT is currently on pace to roughly tie the amount of rushing attempts he had his first full season at OSU (currently only 7 less attempts....keep in mind, he went down halfway through that year's UM game)

He also only needs 4 more completions to tie the amount he had the 2014 regular season as well. However, his total yardage is down by roughly 500 total yards and he has thrown 10 less TD passes this year.

Again, this can be contributed to the fact he had sure-fire targets established (Devin Smith and Evan Spencer acting as security blankets while Michael Thomas emerged), compared to this year we seem to complete many more short yardage gains vs. the big chunk plays we'd grown accustom to seeing.

 

[Surge]

We still don't give a damn...

 

[Ohio]

We will see how this weekend goes. MSU has had a porous OL all year due to lack of experience. LJ Scott man-handled us as we were poor to shed blocks and didn't have the beef up front to clog holes.

Michigan and Bama give me the same worries. They will run downhill between the tackles, and we'll be prepared to stop it, I'm just not sure we can consistently do it. Individually I like all of the guys we rotate along the line, but we're light in the pants and prone to getting run at. Deveon Smith is average IMO, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has himself a day on Saturday.

I'm not sure what we saw in the MSU game will reflect what we see going forward. There will be a whole other level of preparation and focus now. Even so, LJ Scott is a great, great RB. He accounted for over 70% of their yards. Nobody else on that team did anything. As you note, Deveon Smith is pretty average. Michigan does not have an LJ Scott on their team. Neither does Bama, for that matter.

I'm not saying what happened against MSU was a fluke, but I also don't think it's a sign of things to come at all.

 

[Ohio]

@Stark we need The Game thread. Hype is already well underway. Similar to 2006.

 

[TheLand1287]

So, just a few things I was thinking about this morning, since we all have discussed what should/could/will happen if Ohio State beats Michigan, but haven't really discussed the other unfortunate scenario...

1.) Let's say OSU loses The Game... what bowl are we looking at? I would think a 2 loss OSU would be ranked high enough to get the Rose Bowl over a 2 loss Penn State and 3 loss Wisconsin (they'd be losing to Michigan in the B1G title game in this scenario). The Rose picked an inferior Iowa team over us last year since they were ranked higher and we all saw where that got them. If Michigan beats us and then loses to Wisconsin in the B1G title game, then I'm assuming it's Wisconsin to the CFB Playoff, Michigan to the Rose, and we head to the Orange Bowl to play Louisville?

2.) This is all 'what if' just for the sake of discussion, but what if OSU didn't lose that game to Penn State a month ago, and went into the Michigan game undefeated, but then lost. They still wouldn't be headed to the B1G title game, but they'd be 11-1 with their 1 loss being in the last week of the season to the 3rd ranked team in the country. Do you think they still make the CFB Playoff at 11-1 with a loss to Michigan?

I think this is a lot harder to answer than a fluky loss at Penn State... as this would be a loss at home in the last week of the season. I would think OSU could still get in, but it would need more chaos then they would as it stands right now... Michigan losing the B1G Title game to Wisconsin, or Washington losing to Washington State or USC/Colorado, or Clemson losing to South Carolina or ACC title game.

 

[Cavsfan1985]

The one thing I have not seen enough out of this team is the hurry up. If you look at Barrett he is best when he has to make quick decision. It seems when we slow it down, he tries to make to many reads after he snaps the ball then does not have the confidence to throw into coverage. Where as when he runs the two min or hurry up, he reads the defense before the snap, then makes a quick play. I hope we add this back next week.

If Michigan is out at QB, I think if we can get a lead early and make them abandon running the ball it is a game changer. I dont like our odds in a grind out type game. In the Nebraska and OK game, we got out to early starts, and forced the team to play our game.

 

[col63onel]

Let's say OSU loses The Game... what bowl are we looking at? I would think a 2 loss OSU would be ranked high enough to get the Rose Bowl over a 2 loss Penn State and 3 loss Wisconsin (they'd be losing to Michigan in the B1G title game in this scenario).

Almost assuredly.

Do you think they still make the CFB Playoff at 11-1 with a loss to Michigan?

Decent shot, but might need a Washington/Clemson loss.

 

[col63onel]

As a Michigan fan

 

[Stark]

@Stark we need The Game thread. Hype is already well underway. Similar to 2006.

Will be up at some point on Turkey Day.

 

[Cratylus]

Will be up at some point on Turkey Day.