A friend recently asked me about Jonas Valanciunas’s defense for the Toronto Raptors. I watch a lot of Toronto, and always felt Jonas is underwhelming defensively, and the general analytics support that. Valanciunas’s DRPM (ESPN’s catch-all analytic) ranks as 43rd out of 65 NBA centers. Further, even if you want to look at a stat that puts greater emphasis on defensive rebounds and blocks, such as defensive box plus/minus (DBPM), Jonas ranks as a below average center. So, after that initial easy research, I dug into some lineup and point per possession data.
JV played 81% of his 2016-17 minutes with DeMar DeRozan. During those minutes, the Raptors gave up 1.127 points per possession. Yet, during the minutes DeRozan played without JV, the Raptors allowed 1.093 points per possession.
But, here is where it gets interesting, when Jonas played without DeRozan, Toronto allowed 1.043 points per possession.
This resulted in me looking into some more specific numbers. The most common lineup with Valanciunas and without DeRozan was Lowry-Powell-Carroll-Patterson-JV. This group allowed 1.048 points per possession. When you take that exact same lineup, and replace JV with Nogueira (the most used sub for that lineup), the Raptors allowed only one point per possession.
Moreover, in general, without DeRozan, Lowry-Patterson-JV allowed, as a three-man unit, 1.032 points per possession.
Yet, with DeRozan replacing JV, the Raptors allowed only .99 points per possession on 451 defensive possessions.
Now, when you take the Nogueira lineup, and remove him and replace with DeRozan, the Raptors allowed only .88 points per possession (this lineup was used in the playoffs against the Bucks).
Finally, a lineup with Lowry-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka allowed 1.044 points per possession. But, when you take the last lineup, remove DeRozan, and replace him with Cory Joseph, the Raptors allowed
only .77 points per possession.
TAKEAWAYS:
1) Jonas and DeRozan are both terrible defenders. Casey knew that and played them together in offense-heavy lineups.
2) Nonetheless, when JV sat, the Raptors were an elite defensive team, regardless if DeRozan played or not. With JV, though, Toronto fell to a slightly below-average defensive team.
3) It is time for the Toronto Raptors to move on from Valanciunas. The fact is, he will never become a good defender, and this has to do with where he struggles.
SO WHY THE BAD DEFENSE?
As the big defender in a pick-and-roll (including pops, rolls, and switches), JV ranks in the bottom 28% of all NBA defenders, allowing .94 points per possession. In the modern NBA, those numbers are unsalvageable. Let’s look at some video to understand why:
This one clip demonstrates that Valanciunas really struggles defending smaller players. He simply does not have the foot speed to stay in front of them. Additionally, he is long with a huge wingspan, but is bad at using his length to get stops. Jonas averages forces 1.7 turnovers per 48 minutes.
Using basketball-reference data, that ranks as 56th of 72 NBA centers. Consequently, it has become easy for teams to attack Valanciunas in the pick-and-roll.
Furthermore, per Synergy, the only two play-types where Valanciunas ranks above average is when he defends post-ups and isolations. On no other play-type (transition, cuts, spot-ups, off-ball screens, etc.) is Jonas an even neutral defender. For example, below is a clip of Jonas playing awful transition defense.
The problem is twofold: JV’s footspeed is awful, and his effort is limited. But, the latter problem does not seem to be related to not caring. Simply put, he just does not have that much energy.
Further unfortunate news for the Raptors is that Valanciunas will have a limited trade market. Very few teams want a one-way big who cannot play against the Cavs, Rockets, Celtics, or Warriors.
Given that limitation, it may make sense for the Raptors to give Jonas a bench role, similar to what Milwaukee did with Greg Monroe. More than likely, that decision will result in great similarities with Jahlil Okafor than Monroe, but it is necessary for Toronto’s future success.