2017 College Football Season/Playoff Thread

[Rich]

Like I said, the committee is looking at who you beat, not who you lost to, if they are ranking 1 loss Clemson over undefeated Miami and Wisconsin.

A win over Penn State is a wash with a win over Notre Dame. Penn State plays Maryland and Nebraska to finish the year. They too will be 10-2.

Who does Miami then put out there from their resume that is equal to Wisconsin, or even Michigan State after that?

I mean, a 1 loss non-conference champ got in last year over a 2 loss conference champ and bonus, that 2 loss conference champ beat the 1 loss team.

And if Miami loses a really, really close game to Clemson? I don't think it'll be a tough decision for the committee at all.

I also don't think the only thing the committee is looking at is who you beat. They clearly take margin of victory into account, or else Miami would be ranked #1 right now. Ohio State getting blasted by Iowa will surely have an effect.

 

[Ohio]

Like I said, the committee is looking at who you beat, not who you lost to, if they are ranking 1 loss Clemson over undefeated Miami and Wisconsin.

A win over Penn State is a wash with a win over Notre Dame. Penn State plays Maryland and Nebraska to finish the year. They too will be 10-2.

Who does Miami then put out there from their resume that is equal to Wisconsin, or even Michigan State after that?

The committee looks at everything. They aren't going to conveniently forget we lost to Iowa by 30. Now I certainly agree who you beat is more important; that has always been the case.

Notre Dame isn't a wash with Penn State. They are ranked two spots higher and play a solid Navy team and a ranked Stanford team to boost themselves even further from Penn State. And like I said before, Notre Dame wins out and they probably will finish ahead of 1 loss Wisconsin.

Thus, Miami has the best win (in dominant fashion) and didn't lose to a bad team by 30.

They would go and they would deserve it.

 

[col63onel]

The committee looks at everything. They aren't going to conveniently forget we lost to Iowa by 30. Now I certainly agree who you beat is more important; that has always been the case.

Notre Dame isn't a wash with Penn State. They are ranked two spots higher and play a solid Navy team and a ranked Stanford team to boost themselves even further from Penn State. And like I said before, Notre Dame wins out and they probably will finish ahead of 1 loss Wisconsin.

Thus, Miami has the best win (in dominant fashion) and didn't lose to a bad team by 30.

They would go and they would deserve it.

I know you've stated you don't think either will happen, but for arguments sake, which one is more likely, in your mind

a.) A 2 loss ND ends up ahead of a 2 loss OSU

or

b.) A 1 loss non-ACC champ Miami ends up behind a 2 loss OSU

 

[Wulfgar1224]

I know you've stated you don't think either will happen, but for arguments sake, which one is more likely, in your mind

a.) A 2 loss ND ends up ahead of a 2 loss OSU

or

b.) A 1 loss non-ACC champ Miami ends up behind a 2 loss OSU

I'll bite even though I wasn't asked. I think it will be very tough to exclude a one loss non-champ Miami over a 2 loss OSU.

I see ND and OSU as nearly a tossup if Miami, Oklahoma, and Bama run the table. ND wouldn't have the conference championship. But, they'd have some pretty impressive wins and the teams they lost to wouldn't be nearly as bad as the OSU loss to Iowa. OSU probably still gets in. But, you could make a powerful argument for the Irish.

I think a one loss Miami gets in over a 2 loss OSU especially if ND runs the table and the game against Clemson isn't a blowout.

So the way you phrased the question, I'd go with a.

 

[Ohio]

I know you've stated you don't think either will happen, but for arguments sake, which one is more likely, in your mind

a.) A 2 loss ND ends up ahead of a 2 loss OSU

or

b.) A 1 loss non-ACC champ Miami ends up behind a 2 loss OSU

That's tough. I'd need to know what happens with other teams in either/both scenarios. Particularly Wisconsin, USC, Notre Dame. Not to mention how the teams perform on the field.

But gun to my head, with no assumptions being made? I think A is more likely.

I really do not think we end up ahead of 1 loss Miami in pretty much any circumstance.

 

[SanduskyCav]

The college football playoff committee looks at everything. One thing that is going to help OSU is FPI. OSU's FPI is ranked 2nd behind Alabama.

• FPI: Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field. *FPI is updated daily in the current week.

 

[BimboColesHair]

That's tough. I'd need to know what happens with other teams in either/both scenarios. Particularly Wisconsin, USC, Notre Dame. Not to mention how the teams perform on the field.

But gun to my head, with no assumptions being made? I think A is more likely.

I really do not think we end up ahead of 1 loss Miami in pretty much any circumstance.

And I can't disagree with the bolded more, considering some of the very real circumstances that can happen surrounding a 1 loss Miami, assuming that 1 loss is to Clemson.

Margin of defeat to Clemson
Margin of victory for OSU vs Wisconsin

After that, compare the resumes. Sure, they have 1 less loss...but what are their next best wins?

Their best victory currently is #8 Notre Dame.

OSU's best victory currently is #10 Penn State.

Their next best victory currently is unranked 7-3 Virginia Tech.

OSU's next best victory currently is #17 Michigan State.

And that's not even counting a potential Wisconsin win for OSU. There is a very real chance the committee looks at 2 superior wins > 1 less loss.

Whole point I am trying to make here is...OSU doesn't control their own destiny, but after last week and the way things played out, they are a lot closer than people want to admit right now.

 

[Ohio]

Margin of defeat to Clemson
Margin of victory for OSU vs Wisconsin

I agree this matters, I mentioned that.

And that's not even counting a potential Wisconsin win for OSU. There is a very real chance the committee looks at 2 superior wins > 1 less loss.

Again, Penn State is not a better win than Notre Dame right now. It just isn't. Notre Dame is ranked higher and has two good teams remaining to look even better. Wisconsin might not even finish higher than Notre Dame in the final rankings.

Whole point I am trying to make here is...OSU doesn't control their own destiny, but after last week and the way things played out, they are a lot closer than people want to admit right now.

That's the point I've been making since Saturday night! I am just trying to be as realistic as possible about it. And it is my opinion that Ohio State almost certainly wouldn't make it over 1 loss Miami unless some real weird shit happens...like us beating Wisconsin 59-0 again, Miami losing to Clemson 59-0, and Notre Dame finishing 8-4. Then...sure, we'd probably go.

For the sake of moving forward here, we definitely want Notre Dame to lose; not just because they're currently ahead of us, but also because it really hurts Miami's resume. To your point, if Notre Dame loses another game or two, and Miami loses to Clemson, all of a sudden there resume goes from decent to awful.

 

[natedagg]

I agree this matters, I mentioned that.


Again, Penn State is not a better win than Notre Dame right now. It just isn't. Notre Dame is ranked higher and has two good teams remaining to look even better. Wisconsin might not even finish higher than Notre Dame in the final rankings.


That's the point I've been making since Saturday night! I am just trying to be as realistic as possible about it. And it is my opinion that Ohio State almost certainly wouldn't make it over 1 loss Miami unless some real weird shit happens...like us beating Wisconsin 59-0 again, Miami losing to Clemson 59-0, and Notre Dame finishing 8-4. Then...sure, we'd probably go.

For the sake of moving forward here, we definitely want Notre Dame to lose; not just because they're currently ahead of us, but also because it really hurts Miami's resume. To your point, if Notre Dame loses another game or two, and Miami loses to Clemson, all of a sudden there resume goes from decent to awful.

Wait I thought it was you who said we've got a ~60% chance of making it if we win out? Is that still "realistic as possible" or is that number optimistic?

We have this "they are a lot closer than people want to admit"... what does that mean? @BimboColesHair What odds are people assigning and what odds are you assigning to us making it?

 

[BimboColesHair]

Again, Penn State is not a better win than Notre Dame right now. It just isn't. Notre Dame is ranked higher and has two good teams remaining to look even better. Wisconsin might not even finish higher than Notre Dame in the final rankings.

No where am I arguing it is a better win. It is all but an equal win, according to the committee themselves right now. Neither Notre Dame or Penn State should lose another game this year, so they will both most likely finish top 10 prior to bowl season.

My whole argument for a 1 loss Miami is that if they lose to Clemson, and OSU wins out, including a win over an undefeated Wisconsin, OSUs resume absolutely shits on Miami's, and the human element will take that into account way more than the 2 vs 1 losses battle.

Right now, in this situation where OSU wins out and Miami loses to Clemson, we're talking about OSU beating what would more than likely be 2 top 10 teams and a top 15 team, while Miami beats 1 top 10 team and maybe somewhere in the 20s Virginia Tech if they win out...

Really think the 1 loss gap would be more than made up for for facing a far tougher schedule and beating far better opponents, with the human element involved.

And sure, people will mention last year, and 1 loss non-conference champion OSU getting in over a 2 loss conference champ PSU...but go compare what Miami's resume could be this year with a loss to Clemson to what OSUs was last year. They aren't even close. That argument doesn't hold much water for this situation, this year.

 

[Ohio]

Wait I thought it was you who said we've got a ~60% chance of making it if we win out? Is that still "realistic as possible" or is that number optimistic?

We have this "they are a lot closer than people want to admit"... what does that mean? @BimboColesHair What odds are people assigning and what odds are you assigning to us making it?

I said that is what 538 says and I think that is a little high. I think 60%, assuming we win out, is a little optimistic.

 

[Ohio]

No where am I arguing it is a better win. It is all but an equal win, according to the committee themselves right now. Neither Notre Dame or Penn State should lose another game this year, so they will both most likely finish top 10 prior to bowl season.

My bad, I read your statement wrong.

My whole argument for a 1 loss Miami is that if they lose to Clemson, and OSU wins out, including a win over an undefeated Wisconsin, OSUs resume absolutely shits on Miami's, and the human element will take that into account way more than the 2 vs 1 losses battle.

I agree our resume is better than theirs; but do you at least recognize the possibility that ND is the highest ranked team that OSU or Miami beat in the final ranking? So yeah, maybe our resume overall is better but Miami would have the best win and also didn't lose to a mediocre team by 30.

Right now, in this situation where OSU wins out and Miami loses to Clemson, we're talking about OSU beating what would more than likely be 2 top 10 teams and a top 15 team, while Miami beats 1 top 10 team and maybe somewhere in the 20s Virginia Tech if they win out...

Really think the 1 loss gap would be more than made up for for facing a far tougher schedule and beating far better opponents, with the human element involved.

...I think the human element is going to see that Miami beat the highest ranked team, and didn't just beat them; they annihilated them. I think the human element will also see Miami didn't lose to a mediocre team by 30. I think the human element isn't going to punish a 12-0, #3 Miami team for losing a conference championship game against #2 Clemson.

And sure, people will mention last year, and 1 loss non-conference champion OSU getting in over a 2 loss conference champ PSU...but go compare what Miami's resume could be this year with a loss to Clemson to what OSUs was last year. They aren't even close. That argument doesn't hold much water for this situation, this year.

I agree. Those kind of takes are for casuals or Ped State cultists who surely will be out in full force if we sneak into the playoff again

 

[BimboColesHair]

Wait I thought it was you who said we've got a ~60% chance of making it if we win out? Is that still "realistic as possible" or is that number optimistic?

We have this "they are a lot closer than people want to admit"... what does that mean? @BimboColesHair What odds are people assigning and what odds are you assigning to us making it?

I honestly think OSU controls their own destiny in all but 1 situation (1 loss Georgia beating undefeated Bama by a slim margin in the SEC title game), though I know some don't think that's the case.

They are in line to have a resume very, very similar to last years that got them in as a non-conference winner, but this year they have a chance to add that conference champ accolade into their resume, which I think would ease the blow of having the 2nd loss.

I think the Pac-12 is eliminated already. Notre Dame is eliminated already as well. That leaves the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 Champ (should OU win out), with 1 spot open...and I really think, should OSU and Wisconsin not lose before meeting in December, that the Big 10 title game is a play in game.

Miami's resume, with a loss to Clemson, just isn't good enough to even overcome the 1 loss difference, IMO...but that's just my opinion.

 

[BimboColesHair]

My bad, I read your statement wrong.


I agree our resume is better than theirs; but do you at least recognize the possibility that ND is the highest ranked team that OSU or Miami beat in the final ranking? So yeah, maybe our resume overall is better but Miami would have the best win and also didn't lose to a mediocre team by 30.


...I think the human element is going to see that Miami beat the highest ranked team, and didn't just beat them; they annihilated them. I think the human element will also see Miami didn't lose to a mediocre team by 30. I think the human element isn't going to punish a 12-0, #3 Miami team for losing a conference championship game against #2 Clemson.


I agree. Those kind of takes are for casuals or Ped State cultists who surely will be out in full force if we sneak into the playoff again

Human element won't just look at 1 game...nice thing about the CFP committee is they value the entire resume, not just a single outcome that boosts your computer rating. Value of the entire body of work is why we got in last year over PSU.

And I could easily counter that point with, Michigan State should win out (vs Maryland, @ Rutgers to finish the year), which I believe will have them in the top 15 come the final rankings. And OSU didn't just beat them; they annihilated them. Miami has no 2nd opponent, with a loss to Clemson, that even comes close to how the committee views Michigan State.

Add in Wisconsin to that, who with an OSU loss as their only loss most likely still finishes top 10 in the final ranking prior to bowl season, Miami's body of work isn't enough to overcome that additional loss.

Might just be my opinion, but a loss to Clemson makes Miami's resume pretty damn awful. No better than Big 10 champ OSU's, even with OSU having an additional loss, to however bad the team was.

 

[Ohio]

Human element won't just look at 1 game...nice thing about the CFP committee is they value the entire resume, not just a single outcome that boosts your computer rating. Value of the entire body of work is why we got in last year over PSU.

And I could easily counter that point with, Michigan State should win out (vs Maryland, @ Rutgers to finish the year), which I believe will have them in the top 15 come the final rankings. And OSU didn't just beat them; they annihilated them. Miami has no 2nd opponent, with a loss to Clemson, that even comes close to how the committee views Michigan State.

Add in Wisconsin to that, who with an OSU loss as their only loss most likely still finishes top 10 in the final ranking prior to bowl season, Miami's body of work isn't enough to overcome that additional loss.

Might just be my opinion, but a loss to Clemson makes Miami's resume pretty damn awful. No better than Big 10 champ OSU's, even with OSU having an additional loss, to however bad the team was.

I agree with the logic, I just don't see the committee doing it.

Hopefully we get more upsets rivalry weekend.