2018 Cleveland Browns Off Season Thread

[Triplethreat]

View: https://twitter.com/browns/status/1027640341850214402?s=21

 

[chrisrich91]

So let me get this straight...

Callaway was pulled over for failing to yield to traffic.

Callaway was driving with a suspended license...but it turns out he had resolved the issue but payment was still transferring due to a change in banks.

Callaway had a misdemeanor amount of weed under the front seat that he claims wasn't his as he just got his car shipped up here from Florida. No failed drug tests to this point show he may be telling the truth.

Callaway had a Glock back strap in the trunk for a gun he legally owns.

If all of this holds true, this seems like a total non-issue outside of the fact that he shouldn't be cruising around at 3 AM during training camp when nothing good ever happens.

Hope for his case it all proves true and he receives no discipline legally or by the NFL.

 

[Jordan]

Alright, I wanted to make a detailed post about why I am excited about the Browns this season.

1) QB play. Football Outsiders has a stat that tracks "yards over replacement/average player." Last season, Kizer was worth -756 yards, and Tyrod was +121. That amounts to a four win difference. Now, the stat is not supposed to be applied that way, but it does signal the sizable improvement.

2) Defense. So the Browns' rush defense last season was amazing. Football Outsiders had us as the fourth best rush defense (yards allowed vs expected average), NFL.com as seventh best (rush yards allowed), and PFF as ninth best (more numbers). The problem is that our pass defense was awful. Because of the value of passing, this made the run defense less important.

--The Browns had the worst pass rush in the NFL last year by every statistic. You literally cannot find one that had the Browns as above God awful. A big reason why is that, even though we blitzed a lot, receivers torched our secondary and QBs could find the open man easily.

--As a consequence, the Browns have revamped and improved their secondary, which should also help the pass rush. We drafted Denzel Ward who Football Outsiders and PFF had ranked as one of the two best corners in college football last year. This is surprising because Ward does not create a lot of turnovers, and turnovers are the easiest way for a corner to build value. At OSU, Ward just created an island because he is so great at marking receivers and preventing them from getting catches and making clean routes. He is the perfect corner to improve our pass defense and pass rush.
---the analytical reasoning is straight-forward. Every second your team is on offense increases the odds of you scoring. The opposite is true on defense. So corners that create turnovers increase the odds of you scoring more and the defense scoring less.

--The Browns also brought in EJ Gaines and TJ Carrie. Both guys were solid but not spectacular coverage corners. They won't win you games, but they can do a good job on the other team's second/third best receivers. They also brought in BBC who is great at defending the slot and Damarious Randle who can fill the opposite safety position to Peppers.

--In sum, I think the secondary is much improved, and that this will lead to less opposing completions and more effective rushes against the other team's QB.

3) Receivers. Our best receiver last year was either Higgins or Louis. That is terrifying. Landry, Gordon, and Calloway should totally transform the routes our receivers can run, leading to a more complex offense, and greater production in the passing game. This, in turn, should improve our already-good running game.

Ultimately, we are young, and do not have any position group that is clearly in the top-10 in the NFL. With that said, I really believe that 8-8 is in the cards, 9-7 is the high-end, and I would be shocked if we win less than 6.

 

[Real Deal]

Alright, I wanted to make a detailed post about why I am excited about the Browns this season.

1) QB play. Football Outsiders has a stat that tracks "yards over replacement/average player." Last season, Kizer was worth -756 yards, and Tyrod was +121. That amounts to a four win difference. Now, the stat is not supposed to be applied that way, but it does signal the sizable improvement.

2) Defense. So the Browns' rush defense last season was amazing. Football Outsiders had us as the fourth best rush defense (yards allowed vs expected average), NFL.com as seventh best (rush yards allowed), and PFF as ninth best (more numbers). The problem is that our pass defense was awful. Because of the value of passing, this made the run defense less important.

--The Browns had the worst pass rush in the NFL last year by every statistic. You literally cannot find one that had the Browns as above God awful. A big reason why is that, even though we blitzed a lot, receivers torched our secondary and QBs could find the open man easily.

--As a consequence, the Browns have revamped and improved their secondary, which should also help the pass rush. We drafted Denzel Ward who Football Outsiders and PFF had ranked as one of the two best corners in college football last year. This is surprising because Ward does not create a lot of turnovers, and turnovers are the easiest way for a corner to build value. At OSU, Ward just created an island because he is so great at marking receivers and preventing them from getting catches and making clean routes. He is the perfect corner to improve our pass defense and pass rush.
---the analytical reasoning is straight-forward. Every second your team is on offense increases the odds of you scoring. The opposite is true on defense. So corners that create turnovers increase the odds of you scoring more and the defense scoring less.

--The Browns also brought in EJ Gaines and TJ Carrie. Both guys were solid but not spectacular coverage corners. They won't win you games, but they can do a good job on the other team's second/third best receivers. They also brought in BBC who is great at defending the slot and Damarious Randle who can fill the opposite safety position to Peppers.

--In sum, I think the secondary is much improved, and that this will lead to less opposing completions and more effective rushes against the other team's QB.

3) Receivers. Our best receiver last year was either Higgins or Louis. That is terrifying. Landry, Gordon, and Calloway should totally transform the routes our receivers can run, leading to a more complex offense, and greater production in the passing game. This, in turn, should improve our already-good running game.

Ultimately, we are young, and do not have any position group that is clearly in the top-10 in the NFL. With that said, I really believe that 8-8 is in the cards, 9-7 is the high-end, and I would be shocked if we win less than 6.

One thing that upsets me the most about this upcoming season is Joe Thomas not being in his general football state of mind and ultimately retiring. He deserves a season like this more than any other player you can think of. But he went out being the best instead of going out struggling to survive at the tackle position.

I honestly think our O-Line is going to cost us at times.

 

[Jack Brickman]

This manifests in a vicious cycle of spite and arrogance that continues to metastasize through the media and fans. Those who hate the most have been the most “right” and now have the loudest voices.

This should be cyclical. As we turn it around, the savvy media members who change their tune will ultimately become the trusted voices that only get louder & get more attention via fan engagement.

The consequences of bad ownership, bad decisions, and tanking are losses and attitudes of players, media, and fans alike.

I think another problem is that a lot of the fans don't realize how bad our media is, and so they take the things the media says as gospel rather than realizing the writers are largely hacks.

Most of the baseball writers and some of the Cavs guys are good. Other than that it’s fucking bad

I'm not a baseball fan so I don't follow the writers there. But I did say outside of a few people for a reason, and that was to cover guys like Pluto who are consistently pretty great.

 

[Real Deal]

I think another problem is that a lot of the fans don't realize how bad our media is, and so they take the things the media says as gospel rather than realizing the writers are largely hacks.



I'm not a baseball fan so I don't follow the writers there. But I did say outside of a few people for a reason, and that was to cover guys like Pluto who are consistently pretty great.

Wow, you're absolutely missing out on Frankie Lindor, Jose Ramirez whom are 2 top AL MVPs vote getters, and the wonderful Tribe section that offers any and everything.

Any way to convert you?

 

[dark2332]

So let me get this straight...

Callaway was pulled over for failing to yield to traffic.

Callaway was driving with a suspended license...but it turns out he had resolved the issue but payment was still transferring due to a change in banks.

Callaway had a misdemeanor amount of weed under the front seat that he claims wasn't his as he just got his car shipped up here from Florida. No failed drug tests to this point show he may be telling the truth.

Callaway had a Glock back strap in the trunk for a gun he legally owns.

If all of this holds true, this seems like a total non-issue outside of the fact that he shouldn't be cruising around at 3 AM during training camp when nothing good ever happens.

Hope for his case it all proves true and he receives no discipline legally or by the NFL.

And much of this seems true after watching the entire dash cam video. He was extremely polite and respectful to the officer. The officer was certain he wasn't under the influence at the time of the incident.

He mentioned that the car had just been shipped up prior to ever escalating to a search of the car.

Callaway was actually leaving a teammate's house and heading back to his own apartment--although shouldn't have been at 3 AM, we can agree.

 

[Randolphkeys]

--The Browns also brought in EJ Gaines and TJ Carrie. Both guys were solid but not spectacular coverage corners. They won't win you games, but they can do a good job on the other team's second/third best receivers. They also brought in BBC who is great at defending the slot and Damarious Randle who can fill the opposite safety position to Peppers.

They have an intriguing group. The no brainier here is that the safeties are going to be unquestionably more prepared. Peppers was playing like a coverage linebacker at Michigan, then as a rookie he is thrown into a deep free safety role. No shock he was awful the first ten games, but PFF had his last six games as much better. Now he gets to play a strong safety role but has that coverage experience to lean on. Randall is a true FS, but he hasn't played the position in a while. He may also need to get his instincts back, but it won't be like the Peppers experiment.

One name you have forgotten about is Terrance Mitchell. He wasn't very good last year with the Chiefs, but I feel like Dorsey knew something the rest of us didn't know. Mitchell was great in 2016, struggled in 2017, and has looked like a starting #2 corner so far in practice. Both Gaines and Carrie recently had a stinker of a season as well, but are coming off strong years.

The one thing I take away from all that is you need depth at corner. If you are playing a corner banged up, he is going to get burned more often.

 

[Jordan]

They have an intriguing group. The no brainier here is that the safeties are going to be unquestionably more prepared. Peppers was playing like a coverage linebacker at Michigan, then as a rookie he is thrown into a deep free safety role. No shock he was awful the first ten games, but PFF had his last six games as much better. Now he gets to play a strong safety role but has that coverage experience to lean on. Randall is a true FS, but he hasn't played the position in a while. He may also need to get his instincts back, but it won't be like the Peppers experiment.

One name you have forgotten about is Terrance Mitchell. He wasn't very good last year with the Chiefs, but I feel like Dorsey knew something the rest of us didn't know. Mitchell was great in 2016, struggled in 2017, and has looked like a starting #2 corner so far in practice. Both Gaines and Carrie recently had a stinker of a season as well, but are coming off strong years.

The one thing I take away from all that is you need depth at corner. If you are playing a corner banged up, he is going to get burned more often.

I forgot about him! Duh. I am writing up a blog post now and will make sure to include him.

 

[Jordan]

Alright, I wanted to make a detailed post about why I am excited about the Browns this season.

1) QB play. Football Outsiders has a stat that tracks "yards over replacement/average player." Last season, Kizer was worth -756 yards, and Tyrod was +121. That amounts to a four win difference. Now, the stat is not supposed to be applied that way, but it does signal the sizable improvement.

2) Defense. So the Browns' rush defense last season was amazing. Football Outsiders had us as the fourth best rush defense (yards allowed vs expected average), NFL.com as seventh best (rush yards allowed), and PFF as ninth best (more numbers). The problem is that our pass defense was awful. Because of the value of passing, this made the run defense less important.

--The Browns had the worst pass rush in the NFL last year by every statistic. You literally cannot find one that had the Browns as above God awful. A big reason why is that, even though we blitzed a lot, receivers torched our secondary and QBs could find the open man easily.

--As a consequence, the Browns have revamped and improved their secondary, which should also help the pass rush. We drafted Denzel Ward who Football Outsiders and PFF had ranked as one of the two best corners in college football last year. This is surprising because Ward does not create a lot of turnovers, and turnovers are the easiest way for a corner to build value. At OSU, Ward just created an island because he is so great at marking receivers and preventing them from getting catches and making clean routes. He is the perfect corner to improve our pass defense and pass rush.
---the analytical reasoning is straight-forward. Every second your team is on offense increases the odds of you scoring. The opposite is true on defense. So corners that create turnovers increase the odds of you scoring more and the defense scoring less.

--The Browns also brought in EJ Gaines and TJ Carrie. Both guys were solid but not spectacular coverage corners. They won't win you games, but they can do a good job on the other team's second/third best receivers. They also brought in BBC who is great at defending the slot and Damarious Randle who can fill the opposite safety position to Peppers.

--In sum, I think the secondary is much improved, and that this will lead to less opposing completions and more effective rushes against the other team's QB.

3) Receivers. Our best receiver last year was either Higgins or Louis. That is terrifying. Landry, Gordon, and Calloway should totally transform the routes our receivers can run, leading to a more complex offense, and greater production in the passing game. This, in turn, should improve our already-good running game.

Ultimately, we are young, and do not have any position group that is clearly in the top-10 in the NFL. With that said, I really believe that 8-8 is in the cards, 9-7 is the high-end, and I would be shocked if we win less than 6.

Just as an update, here is my article version, with some more stats and a few videos (and Terrance Mitchell).

https://sportsbystats.com/2018/08/0...hy-the-cleveland-browns-will-improve-in-2018/

The Cleveland Browns are in the midst of the worst two-year stretch of Football in NFL history. They have been worse than terrible. They were absolutely awful.

Nonetheless, this team should improve significantly during the 2018 season. Here are three reasons why: quarterback play, a vastly improved secondary, and a transformed group of receivers.

The first reason is quarterback play. Football Outsiders has a stat that tracks “yards over replacement/average player.” Effectively, this stat looks at “average” quarterback production – both running and passing – and compares it across the league.

Last season, the Browns’ starting quarterback, DeShone Kizer, was worth -756 yards. Their starter this year, Tyrod Taylor, was worth +121 yards.

The reason why this is so important is that the NFL quarterback is individually worth more to a team’s win percentage than any position in any other major sport.

Thus, this yard differential amounts to at least a four win difference. Now, the stat is not supposed to be applied that way, but it does signal the sizable improvement.

The second reason is the improved defense. Last season, the Browns’ rush defense was actually one of the ten best in the NFL. Football Outsiders had Cleveland as the fourth best rush defense (yards allowed vs expected average), NFL.com as seventh best (rush yards allowed), and PFF as ninth best (regression analysis).

A big reason for this was the partnership of Emmanuel Ogbah and Myles Garrett. Last season, when the opponent’s offense ran right and Ogbah was on the field, the Browns allowed 2.18 yards per carry. When Ogbah got hurt, however, they allowed 4.55 yards per carry.

As a consequence, if both Garrett and Ogbah stay healthy, fans should expect a stout run defense.


The problem is that the Browns’ pass defense was awful in 2018. The fact is, passing generates more yards per play compared to running, and because of this value, the overall defense struggled.

The Browns had the worst pass rush in the NFL last year by every statistic. Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL’s rankings all ranked the 2018 Browns’ pass rush as horrendous. A big reason why is that, even though Cleveland blitzed a lot, receivers torched the secondary and QBs could find the open man easily.

Hue Jackson’s team blitzed the second-most times in the NFL last season. Specifically, per Football Outsiders, they blitzed on 38% of plays. The problem is that the Browns defended 1,026 plays last year, blitzed on 390 of them, and only made contact with the quarterback 45 times.

This is a sign of a secondary that cannot stay in front of their receivers. As a consequence, the Browns have revamped and improved their secondary, which should also help the pass rush.

First, new GM John Dorsey drafted Denzel Ward. Pro Football Focus statistics show that Ward allowed the lowest “catch rate” – or the number of made catches during catch opportunities – of any cornerback in college football over the past two years.

Moreover, both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders – two analytically-heavy resources – ranked Ward as one of the best corners in college football last year. This is surprising because Ward does not create a lot of turnovers, and turnovers are the easiest way for a corner to build analytical value. The reasoning is straight-forward: every second your team is on offense increases the odds of you scoring and vice-versa. Consequently, corners that create turnovers increase the odds of you scoring more and the defense scoring less. At Ohio State, Ward created an island by marking receivers and preventing them from catching the ball and making clean routes.


The Browns also brought in Terrance Mitchell, EJ Gaines, and TJ Carrie. During camp, so far, Mitchell has seemed to hold the starting position opposite Ward. Just two years ago Mitchell allowed a 55.5 passer rating on the right side for Kansas City. He struggled last year but, for the Browns, has been consistent. Moreover, Gaines allowed an excellent .82 yards per cover snap, and Carrie performed well last season, albeit inconsistently.

All three players are solid, but not spectacular, coverage corners. They won’t win you games, but they can do a good job on the other team’s second/third best receivers, and lengthen the amount of time a quarterback has to hold the ball.

Additionally, these four corners will join a secondary with Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who is superb at defending the slot and allowed a leave-leading .46 yards per cover snap.

Finally, the team added Damarious Randall in a trade for DeShone Kizer. Randall will play free safety, which allows former second round pick, Jabrill Peppers, to play strong safety, which is historically where the second-year player’s better position.

In sum, the secondary is much improved, and that this will lead to less opposing completions and more effective rushes against the other team’s QB.

The third and final reason why the Browns will be better this season is their receivers. Last year, Cleveland’s best receiver was Rashard Higgins, followed by Ricardo Louis. The problem is that the two players were statistically mediocre. This season, Dorsey added Jarvis Landry, who improved his quarterback’s passer rating by +7.3 points on quick outs, 34.1 points on out routes, and 21.3 points on in routes.

Additionally, the Browns may bring back Josh Gordon, who is one of the three best receivers in the NFL when he actually plays. Finally, they drafted Antonio Callaway, who was a first-round talent that fell due to character concerns.

Overall, Landry, Gordon, and Calloway should totally transform the routes our receivers can run, leading to a more complex offense, and greater production in the passing game. This, in turn, should improve the already-impressive running game.

Ultimately, the team is young, and does not have any position group that is clearly in the top-10 in the NFL. Nonetheless, there are clear improvements, and this fan expects a massive turnaround.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Wow, you're absolutely missing out on Frankie Lindor, Jose Ramirez whom are 2 top AL MVPs vote getters, and the wonderful Tribe section that offers any and everything.

Any way to convert you?

Just not a fan of the sport, to be honest. I'll root for the Indians when they make the playoffs because I'm a Cleveland sports fan, but just don't find the sport to be terribly compelling.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Dez Bryant just tweeted:

"For real... I wouldn’t mind playing for the browns.. I just want to be right first"

 

[dark2332]

Dez Bryant just tweeted:

"For real... I wouldn’t mind playing for the browns.. I just want to be right first"

I don’t even know what that means.

 

[Juice is Loose]

So let me get this straight...

Callaway was pulled over for failing to yield to traffic.

Callaway was driving with a suspended license...but it turns out he had resolved the issue but payment was still transferring due to a change in banks.

Callaway had a misdemeanor amount of weed under the front seat that he claims wasn't his as he just got his car shipped up here from Florida. No failed drug tests to this point show he may be telling the truth.

Callaway had a Glock back strap in the trunk for a gun he legally owns.

If all of this holds true, this seems like a total non-issue outside of the fact that he shouldn't be cruising around at 3 AM during training camp when nothing good ever happens.

Hope for his case it all proves true and he receives no discipline legally or by the NFL.

Wait a second... you’re telling me people overreacted for nothing and wanted the kid cut!!!?? People need to let the facts take place before jumping on the kid. Shout out to Tony Grossi for reporting this non fucking issue

 

[MirORich]

I don’t even know what that means.

“I just want to be right first”

Equals

-I want to get into proper shape with not own trainer/training regiment

-I’m not really into 6 weeks of TC