2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[Nathan S]

Lol those are Luka's top 3 skills as well IMO ironically. They're totally different players though. Saw in one of the DX interviews that he compares his game a lot to PG13. I can see it offensively if his shot is as good as advertised...defensively uhhh not so much lol.

Going to be watching a lot of bad high school mix tapes of him, pray for me.

I can see it too. And while I agree he doesn't have the potential to be a lockdown one-on-one defender like George, I think he'll be a good, net-positive glue guy on that end. Seems to have a nose for the ball.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I can see it too. And while I agree he doesn't have the potential to be a lockdown one-on-one defender like George, I think he'll be a good, net-positive glue guy on that end. Seems to have a nose for the ball.

There's very little complete coverage type of stuff available on YouTube to really get a feel for him defensively. But I did find a little bit of that from the Nike Hoop Summit last year. I'll highlight what I see defensively:


Here, Porter is caught ball-watching a well defended pick and roll. He takes an awful angle on the closeout, but is fortunate enough to have Mo Bamba behind him.

This one's rough. Randomly caught in no-man's land over-helping one pass away. This is unfortunately a recurring issue, helping off the corner. That's never a good idea unless it's a poor shooter. It's definitely an awful play, but not something some coaching can't fix.

Another recurring issue I noticed with his defense is how often he is standing around with his arms up not really making a play on the ball or impacting the shot at all.

(again over-helping off of the corner unnecessarily)

If he can go from this to using verticality, that'd be a great way to put his 9'0" standing reach to use.

The other recurring mistake that he makes is over-reaching. It's pretty common, but fixable.

Just his overall awareness isn't up to par with being a plus defender right now. He seems to be have an issue similar to Bagley out on the perimeter in the fact that they're fluid athletes with good mobility, but have some things to clean up fundamentally and with just defensive IQ/team defending. Though I'm much more confident in Porter in the other areas of defense.

He certainly has the potential to be a plus defender, but based on what I saw from this game he has a decent amount of learning to do before getting there. On the bright side SUBTRACTING of possessions like this is coachable:

And ADDING possessions like this isn't nearly as much:

 

[Nathan S]

There's very little complete coverage type of stuff available on YouTube to really get a feel for him defensively. But I did find a little bit of that from the Nike Hoop Summit last year. I'll highlight what I see defensively:


Here, Porter is caught ball-watching a well defended pick and roll. He takes an awful angle on the closeout, but is fortunate enough to have Mo Bamba behind him.

This one's rough. Randomly caught in no-man's land over-helping one pass away. This is unfortunately a recurring issue, helping off the corner. That's never a good idea unless it's a poor shooter. It's definitely an awful play, but not something some coaching can't fix.

Another recurring issue I noticed with his defense is how often he is standing around with his arms up not really making a play on the ball or impacting the shot at all.

(again over-helping off of the corner unnecessarily)

If he can go from this to using verticality, that'd be a great way to put his 9'0" standing reach to use.

The other recurring mistake that he makes is over-reaching. It's pretty common, but fixable.

Just his overall awareness isn't up to par with being a plus defender right now. He seems to be have an issue similar to Bagley out on the perimeter in the fact that they're fluid athletes with good mobility, but have some things to clean up fundamentally and with just defensive IQ/team defending. Though I'm much more confident in Porter in the other areas of defense.

He certainly has the potential to be a plus defender, but based on what I saw from this game he has a decent amount of learning to do before getting there. On the bright side SUBTRACTING of possessions like this is coachable:

And ADDING possessions like this isn't nearly as much:

Any chance you could come up with a similar compilation for Doncic?

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Any chance you could come up with a similar compilation for Doncic?

I'll see what I can find if I have time tonight.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

There's not really a ton available as far as film on Doncic defensively that would be available for me to really cut up much. All of it is just highlight videos or videos already breaking things down. So I'll just bring up certain things that I think will matter most for his NBA abilities.

From what I've seen, Doncic reminds me some of Cedi Osman defensively some in the fact that they're spazzes. I assume most of you are familiar with what I mean with Cedi. What I mean is that on the perimeter, Doncic is almost always dancing on his feet and competing super hard out there.

However, he often times overplays jab steps and hesitations and opens his hips up in the opposite direction. Here's one of the few examples I can cut up easily:

You'll see this sort of thing fairly often when watching him. Still need to keep in mind though that he's competing harder than most guys would, and does have his moments on the perimeter. I am worried though that these sorts of mistakes will be amplified in the NBA against better ball handlers and guys that can change direction much quicker. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get his ankles broken every so often to be honest lol.

The second aspect that makes me think of Cedi is the way he uses his body. I'm not sure whether or not it's a good thing right now or not. He has solid strength for his size, which I'll mention with his post defense, and he gets into defenders on the ball well. However, he uses his body way too much IMO. I don't watch Euroleague games enough to form an opinion on officiating, but plays like this are fouls 100% of the time in the NBA.

This play above really shows what I mean. He slides pretty well and uses his body to cut him off out on the perimeter, but then overdoes it in the paint contesting the shot. This was not called a foul. I've seen a number of plays like this where the officials don't call it. I expect him to initially be fairly foul prone, just like Cedi has.


Another key takeaway I have is that I think he can defend the post fairly well. I think he's got good enough strength to guard some 4's even capably on switches. Not only that, but there's this:
Marvin Bagley Jr standing reach: 8'9
Luka Doncic standing reach: 8'9.5

I think overall he's a pretty high IQ defender despite his age. He does a really good job forcing guys baseline out of the corner on closeouts, and forcing them to their weak hand out of the perimeter.

If I'm his coach, I'd try to limit him defending on-ball as much as I can, though I don't think he'll be too much of a negative there overall in isolation. I'm worried about him some getting around screens just due to his average lateral quickness and his size. I think he can defend the 3 very capably and won't be a negative there in most matchups, and can guard some 4's - though I'm avoiding having him on top line wing players.

 

[Nathan S]

Jaren Jackson 5/6 from the field, all 3-pointers, 2 steals and 3 blocks in 16 minutes of action.

Ayton with a run-of-the-mill statline of 24 points, 14 boards, and 2 blocks.

And Miles Bridges with 15 points, 6 boards, 7 assists and 2 blocks. He's a 19 year old who's arguably the best player on the best team in college basketball, which makes him a fringe top-10 prospect in this draft.

 

[Photon]

Regarding Don’s defense, great breakdown and while I worry about his defense being bad, he did have some really effective games there, without those mistakes.
In the finals at euro, while he was covering Bogdanovic (Sacramento) he stopped him, as soon as he got injured Bogdanovic exploded. He took some initiative on D in the last games for Madrid also, great results. He had his moments before and it usually resulted in large runs from RM. Maybe he just goes into LeBron mode, because Real offense is on him almost entirely.
Why do I still worry? Because he is way too inconsistent to know he can or will do it. But he really hates losing, he even cried a few times when he played bad and they’ve lost. So, we will have to wait it out.

How much potential do guys projected to go 8-11 have? Most likely to do great on a good team?

 

[Muffinalt]

Jaren Jackson 5/6 from the field, all 3-pointers, 2 steals and 3 blocks in 16 minutes of action.

What the hell?

Elite rim protector, can switch onto guards, and space the floor with 3s. Definitely the new step in the evolution of big man. And this draft potential has two of these.

 

[Adam]

What the hell?

Elite rim protector, can switch onto guards, and space the floor with 3s. Definitely the new step in the evolution of big man. And this draft potential has two of these.

He's as if Ryan Anderson and Tristan Thompson had a baby on steroids

 

[MD13]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...-trae-young-next-stephen-curry-2018-nba-draft

Can anyone post this?

 

[MD13]

Jaren Jackson 5/6 from the field, all 3-pointers, 2 steals and 3 blocks in 16 minutes of action.

Ayton with a run-of-the-mill statline of 24 points, 14 boards, and 2 blocks.

And Miles Bridges with 15 points, 6 boards, 7 assists and 2 blocks. He's a 19 year old who's arguably the best player on the best team in college basketball, which makes him a fringe top-10 prospect in this draft.

As someone who hasn't watched JJJ play much at all, does he project to finish at a high level in the paint amongst NBA bigs? And has he shown promise as a passer with the ball in his hands?

Based on nothing more than we need a defensive big and Dan Gilbert (biggest MSU fan) is running the team, he's probably near the top of our board and I'd say we're very likely to get him or Miles Bridges depending on draft position.

 

[Muffinalt]

As someone who hasn't watched JJJ play much at all, does he project to finish at a high level in the paint amongst NBA bigs? And has he shown promise as a passer with the ball in his hands?

Based on nothing more than we need a defensive big and Dan Gilbert (biggest MSU fan) is running the team, he's probably near the top of our board and I'd say we're very likely to get him or Miles Bridges depending on draft position.

Im really interested in those questions too.

He seems to be a really high character guy though, those almost always make big strides in development. Its the areas you cant improve as much that he has nailed down (ie. the rare rim prot + switch perimeter defense combo, shooting stroke). I cant help but salivate at what he projects to be.

Didnt you mean Mikal Bridges? Id be slightly dissapointed if we ended up with Miles tbh.

 

[MD13]

Im really interested in those questions too.

He seems to be a really high character guy though, those almost always make big strides in development. Its the areas you cant improve as much that he has nailed down (ie. the rare rim prot + switch perimeter defense combo, shooting stroke). I cant help but salivate at what he projects to be.

Didnt you mean Mikal Bridges? Id be slightly dissapointed if we ended up with Miles tbh.

Nah, I have a feeling JJJ and Miles are both way up on our board because they go to MSU. Gilbert's MSU ties are all over, and we've already had one local Michigan guy that we picked when he caught Gilbert's eye. Normally I'd say I'm grasping at straws over something like this, but Gilbert isn't exactly the most rational guy.

 

[Nathan S]

As someone who hasn't watched JJJ play much at all, does he project to finish at a high level in the paint amongst NBA bigs? And has he shown promise as a passer with the ball in his hands?

Based on nothing more than we need a defensive big and Dan Gilbert (biggest MSU fan) is running the team, he's probably near the top of our board and I'd say we're very likely to get him or Miles Bridges depending on draft position.

I tend to think he doesn't really have go-to scorer potential the way Ayton and Bagley do, but he seems to be heady enough to make himself a target when the defense loses track of him, and when he gets the ball around the rim he knows what to do with it (dunk, dunk, dunk). Good at using his length and springy athleticism. I wouldn't say he's shown "promise" as a passer, but he's averaging 3.1 assists per 100 possessions, similar to Ayton (3.0) and Bagley (2.8), and far ahead of Bamba (0.6). It's certainly not a red flag, and maybe it's something he can develop into a real positive.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...-trae-young-next-stephen-curry-2018-nba-draft

Can anyone post this?

Midway through the college basketball season, Oklahoma freshman Trae Young has established himself as a front-runner for national player of the year honors. The 19-year-old is averaging an incredible 29.4 points and 10.6 assists in just 32 minutes per game, leading Oklahoma to a 12-1 record and top-10 ranking, becoming must-watch basketball every time the Sooners are on TV.

Young has been getting better and better throughout the season, brushing off arguably his worst game of the year in a loss to Arkansas at the PK80 and playing at an unbelievably high level since. He has helped Oklahoma notch road wins at USC, Wichita State and TCU, with a neutral-court win over Oregon for good measure.

Oklahoma already has the fifth-best NCAA tournament resumé in the country, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, but the Sooners are about to head into an extremely difficult stretch versus two top-10 teams, facing West Virginia on the road and Texas Tech at home. These are by far the two best defenses Oklahoma has faced thus far, which should tell us even more about Young and just how sustainable his incredible 13-game stretch is projecting to the rest of the college season and beyond.

Are we watching the makings of an NBA star, or are some concerns about his pro fit legitimate? ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz discuss.

Where did Young's leap come from?
Givony: What's interesting about Young is that he was one of the more visible prospects on the high school and AAU circuit yet still wasn't considered an elite recruit in what appears to be just an average high school class outside of the top 10. The four major recruiting services ranked him anywhere from No. 16 to No. 30, and he notably wasn't invited to the Nike Hoop Summit despite participating in two different USA Basketball camps and playing a decent role on the gold-medal-winning team at the FIBA Americas Under-18 championship.

In fact, Young struggled badly in FIBA play against fairly lackluster competition in the summer or 2016, going just 7-of-34 from the field.

The only logical explanation for the explosion we've witnessed thus far this season is that Young has improved exceptionally since the spring of 2017, when he was scouted heavily by NBA personnel and certainly didn't stand out as a potential one-and-done lottery pick. He also seems to have made a real shift in his mentality and approach, something his head coach, future Hall of Famer Lon Kruger, certainly deserves a lot of credit for (as well as putting him in position to succeed).

Digging deeper into the data at our disposal, that becomes even clearer. Thanks to our friends at Krossover, we have a huge sample size of 107 games Young played in prior to college, which shed quite a bit of insight into the type of player he was prior to arriving at Oklahoma. This data indicates a number of areas in which Young has shown massive improvement, particularly in terms of his shooting and passing.

One of the reasons Young didn't gain more traction as a high school prospect was the fact that he was considered somewhat of a selfish, shoot-first point guard who wasn't quite as efficient as you might hope considering his style of play.

In the 53 games of data we have from Young's junior and senior years of high school, he posted just a 1-to-1 assist-to-turnover rate (4.4 assists and 4.4 turnovers per game), which is shocking considering what he's doing at the college level (10.6 assists and 4.2 turnovers, a 2.5-to-1 rate). For whatever reason, Young wasn't as willing a ball-mover in high school, and his style of play didn't lead to wins, either, with his Norman North team going 19-6 and not even being one of the eight teams qualifying for the Oklahoma Class 6A State Championship Tournament. Kruger has done a great job of getting Young to buy into being as much of a playmaker as he is a scorer, as evidenced by Young's currently leading the NCAA in assists.

Things were different at the AAU level. In 42 games in the Nike EYBL, Young posted 6/0 assists a 3.9 turnovers for a 1.5 ratio -- better than in high school but still not even approaching what he's doing in college thus far. His 0.22 pure point ratio -- an adjusted version of assist-to-turnover ratio that factors in pace and the value of assists vs. TOs -- certainly pales in comparison with the 7.73 PPR that currently ranks fourth in all of college basketball. Young also won a lot more, going 32-10 in the EYBL and securing the championship in 2016. His team was ridiculously loaded, with the likes of Michael Porter Jr., Jontay Porter, Carte'Are Gordon and a host of other high-level Division 1 prospects.

Young hasn't just become a more unselfish facilitator, he's also increased his offensive efficiency by leaps and bounds, mainly due to his improved 3-point shooting. Despite playing with a shorter 3-point line in high school and AAU, Young hit just 35.8 percent of his (more than 1,000) attempts in 107 games. He's improved that to 40 percent in college so far, while continuing to fire up a ridiculous 10 3-point attempts per contest.

Jimmer Fredette), but few have had that dynamic of a shooting stroke and tremendous ball skills and court vision. As you mentioned, some of Young's perceived limitations as a pure point guard played a role in his lack of NBA buzz going into his freshman season.

"Growing up, I was just a shooter," Young told ESPN in December. "I wanted a guy like [De'Aaron] Fox to bring up the ball and me be on the wing and I just knock down shots. I've always been able to shoot, but I had to build my game to be a point guard. At this level, I was going to have to be a guy who can handle the ball. That's something I've had to learn over the last few years."

Through 12 NCAA games Young leads the country in assists per game (10.6) and assists per-40 minutes (13.1). A bit turnover-prone, Young ranks 16th in the NCAA in assist-to-turnover ratio among players averaging at least five assists per contest. While some of his numbers are a bit inflated due to sheer volume (second in the NCAA in usage), his point guard play looks translatable to the NBA level given the skill and nuance behind it. He's still a score-first player who benefits from having the ultimate green light, but he's also a crisp, dynamic ball-handler who does a tremendous job using deception and creativity to facilitate from all three levels.

To me, Young is the most skilled player in college basketball and the top point guard prospect in the NCAA at this stage, largely due to his tremendous blend of shot-making, facilitating, pick-and-roll play and no-fear style.

What stands out most about Young as a playmaker is his ability to create open looks for his teammates without getting a piece of the paint and despite not having elite size. He's an excellent live-dribble passer, darting dimes all over the floor with either hand. He isn't blessed with Rajon Rondo-sized mitts, but he's able to control the ball impressively without having to get his off-hand involved for support, which often catches the defense off guard given the fact that he can also pull-up or use a hesitation dribble to get into the paint.

Of Young's 136 assists, 22 are of the live-dribble variety, with 11 coming courtesy of his off-hand. As you can see below, he can hit the pop man or roll man with his left from the perimeter without collapsing the defense.

Stephen Curry, Young is not the most physical specimen, but he does an excellent job of using his pull-up threat and change-of-pace to get into the paint and create for others. Defenders are forced to take away his air space, allowing him to play off of hang dribbles and get to the second level of the defense. Defenders have to respect his jumper out to 30 feet, which makes him a nightmare cover when coupled with his handle and vision.

John Wall-like burst to rely on could show up late in games at the highest level, but overall, his combination of ballhandling, pull-up mastery and facilitating from all three levels should make him an above-average NBA playmaker.

"I feel like I fit really well in the NBA," Young said. "I feel like a lot of teams are going to that now -- trying to find people who can really shoot, spread the offense. I would love to play with guys who can really knock down shots, and I feel like I would complement their game because now the point guard can't help as much off of me as they would maybe someone else."

Historical comparisons
Schmitz: JG, what can you tell us about how Young's production stacks up historically?

Givony: It's easy and fun to look at how Young's numbers compare historically with other college players using our extensive database, which goes back decades and has every player drafted since 1984.

The first stat to look at is Young's unique high-usage/high-efficiency combo, both of which are historic when viewed in tandem. Only four players in our database have posted a usage rate better than 32 percent and an offensive rating exceeding 120. We threw Curry in at the end for comparison's sake despite his not making the cut.

CJ McCollum, Morris Almond and Fredette, all of whom were much older than the 19-year-old Young at the same stage.

Similarly, it's extremely difficult to find playmaking guards (over 5 assists per-40) in Young's ilk who have been able to score so prolifically (over 30 points per-40 minutes), even when lowering the efficiency barrier to just a 55 percent true shooting percentage (well under Young's 65 percent). To find anyone who has even remotely come close to doing what Young has, we have to look all the way back to 1991, when Sam Cassell was tearing up the juco ranks for San Jacinto. Unfortunately, Cassell's wasn't able to come close to replicating these numbers as a junior or senior once he transitioned to Division 1 with Florida State, amplifying even more how unique Young's production is historically.

Collin Sexton. Virtually every concern about Young is size-related, as his closest comparisons from a purely physical perspective are Seth Curry, Shabazz Napier and Tyus Jones.

Due to his so-so physical profile, NBA scouts still have some concerns.

Finishing/scoring efficiently

The fact that so much of Young's scoring output is predicated on deep 3s and trips to the free throw line is certainly reason to wonder how efficiently he'll be able to score at the NBA level. His shooting stroke isn't going anywhere, but can Young be a threat to score inside the arc against a set defense? He has feathery touch on floaters with either hand (12-of-17, leading the NCAA in floater efficiency), which will definitely help him neutralize the length and athleticism of NBA rim protectors. But so many of his monster scoring nights have been partially a product of his number of trips to the free throw line -- 18 attempts each against TCU (39 points) and Oregon (43 points). He's attempting 11.8 free throws per 40 minutes, which is fifth-highest in the NCAA. He's crafty, deceptive and excellent at drawing contact for his size.

"I feel like I'm a lot stronger than a lot of people think," Young said. "People say I'm not as strong, but I say, 'How could I not be as strong and be able to take the hits that I do and get fouled?' I just feel like I'm a lot smarter than my defender. Just knowing, especially in college, you can't touch anybody, so no one can stay in front of me if you can't touch me, so I just know how to get by you, how to force you to grab me to draw fouls."

Historically speaking, however, free throw attempts don't always translate seamlessly to the NBA. Take some of the following former top-10 picks, for example. Bulldozer Marcus Smart averaged 8.8 free throw attempts per 40 minutes during his college career and attempts only 3.7 free throws per 40 at the NBA level. Jaylen Brown took 9.5 per 40 at Cal -- he has gotten to the line only 4.0 times per 40 during his NBA career. Some guards have stayed fairly consistent from the NCAA to the NBA -- Kemba Walker and Damian Lillard -- and superstars such as Kyrie Irving and Curry are so skilled that the dip in free throws hasn't affected their overall output. But few have lived at the free throw line quite like Young, and it's fair to question how generous the NBA whistle will be when he doesn't quite have the elite size, physicality or explosiveness of free throw mavens such as James Harden and Russell Westbrook.

When he has been faced with length and athleticism in the paint, Young has had some struggles finishing, as he's shooting only 45.2 percent at the rim in the half court, according to Synergy. He makes about 1.5 shots at the rim in the half court per game, speaking to how much he relies on pull ups and free throws.


While he's shooting 63.2 percent from 2 in four games against teams under .500, Young is shooting a still respectable 50.7 percent inside the arc in eight games against teams over .500. His handle, pull-up threat and change of pace will allow him to get into the paint at the NBA level, and the fact that he can facilitate will really help him, but he'll certainly have an adjustment to make.

"That's something I'm continuing to work on right now," Young said of his finishing. "There's a few times in games when it would be better if I came off two feet. That's something that playing for a coach like coach Kruger, he notices, and we're working on that right now. But I feel like I'm pretty good at finishing at the rim. I like going off one leg. Blowing by you and jumping into you and just trying to find balance that way. I like a lot of floaters, I learned that from Steve Nash. A guy like Kyrie [Irving] is really good at using the glass and doing stuff like that, so I learned a lot of using the glass stuff from Kyrie."

Young also benefits greatly from the freedom of having the keys to Oklahoma's offense. Will he have a shorter leash at the NBA level? Can he be as effective with fewer possessions? The fact that he can shoot on the move while playing off the ball certainly helps him, but these are still questions that scouts are kicking around as they gauge Young's long-term outlook.

Defensive impact

NBA teams also want to see if Young can develop into a passable defender. Curry has proven that you don't need elite size and length to be a plus on the defensive end, which certainly bodes well for Young. With that said, he has long been an offense-first player and will have to dedicate himself on the other side of the floor. While Sexton is a strong, long, defensive bulldog, Young projects as a one-position defender who can stand to up his intensity. His wavering effort level is self-admittedly a function of his offensive role on a team that ranks 40th in the NCAA in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom.com, despite holding a 12-1 record.

"I feel like that's definitely an area I can work on ... I also feel like I'm an underrated defender," Young said. "I don't like gambling as much. In college basketball, especially for my team, my team needs me out there on the floor. Me being not as aggressive on the defensive end, I can't let someone draw a foul or two on me real quick. There's a reason why I'm not as aggressive on the defensive end. I still feel like that's an area where I need to continue to show and get better at, but I feel like that's why I'm not as aggressive on the defensive end. I know my team needs me out there on the floor."

While he has some instincts, quick hands and sneaky toughness, it has yet to show consistently defensively. For one, he can play with more urgency getting over the top (or underneath) ball screens.

Malik Monk, it's hard to stay on the floor at the NBA level if you don't defend. Young is clearly a superior offensive player and different than Monk as a prospect, but the point is that defense matters to NBA head coaches, and Young will have to prove he can be at least adequate on that end as he gets stronger. If his offensive improvement and overall impressive approach to the game are any indication, I'd expect him to grow defensively when put in a situation in which he's held accountable.

Whether or not NBA teams think he can develop into an adequate defender and finisher will likely go a long way in determining when he hears his name called come June, but the success of skill-based guards such as Curry have undoubtedly helped Young's stock moving forward.

The Norman native is a hoops junkie with an equally impressive blend of confidence, humility and basketball savvy. The son of a former player, he's the type of person teams will want to bet on from an approach-to-the-game standpoint, as he's likely to do everything in his power to maximize his physical potential. Despite some lingering concerns, Young has become the top point guard prospect in the draft.

Givony: We've learned quite a bit about Young in his 13 games in college so far, but there are still some hurdles in his way en route to winning player of the year honors and cementing himself as a potential top-five draft pick. Luckily for us, his schedule is absolutely loaded with challenging matchups in the next month alone that will be great barometers for scouts to evaluate him against.